政变世界地图：1950年起发生的475次政变，99%的发生在民主国家


政变世界地图：1950年以来全球发生的475次政变


Map: The world of coups since 1950

政变世界地图：1950年以来全球发生的475次政变

By Adam Taylor July 22 at 11:16 AM



An attempted coup in Turkey last week shocked and surprised many across the world. But coups and attempted coups have long been an all-too-familiar occurrence around the world.

上周在土耳其发生的政变事件震惊了全球。然而对于这个世界来说，政变其实悉如平常。





How many exactly? Well, at the time of writing, there have been around 475 coup attempts since 1950.

那么全球究竟发生过多少次政变呢？咳咳，事实上从1950年至本文成文时为止，全球共发生过475次政变！



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That's according to a dataset compiled by Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, two assistant professors who work in the political science departments of the University of Central Florida and the University of Kentucky respectively.

这份数据是由中佛罗里达大学及肯塔基大学的两位助理教授分别独立汇编得出的。




WorldViews reached out to Powell to ask him some questions about what the definition of a coup is, why a coup happens and what trends we're seeing in coups. The transcript below has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

本栏目组就此向汇编者之一的鲍威尔教授询问了一些问题，其中包括政变的定义是什么，为什么会发生政变以及我们可以从中总结出什么样的趋势。下面就是我们对话的文字记录（为保证文章简明清晰，以下内容作出了些许修改）




WorldViews: How do we define a coup in this dataset? What did it mean that Turkey’s 1997 “postmodern” coup wasn’t included, for example?

栏目组：我们如何定义本数据列表中的政变？为何1997年土耳其发生的“后现代主义政变”未被计入在内？




Jonathan Powell: We define coups as "illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive."

教授：我们将政变定义为“由军方或者其他国家机关中的精英机构公开且违法地推翻现有行政部门的行为”




We don't code the 1997 "coup" because we can't definitively say the action was actually illegal. Omer Aslan of Bilkent University has written about the event in depth. Even including recent evidence that has come to light, he concludes the military ultimately relied on legal procedures to undermine Erbakan.

我们没有计入1997年土耳其政变的原因在于，我们无法确切地证明那场政变是违法的。Bilkent大学的奥默教授对此做过深入研究。即使最近有更多的证据得到曝光，他仍然认为军方是通过合法手段推翻了艾巴肯。




[Ed note: In 1997, generals used pressure behind the scene to force the Islamist government of Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan from power. The coup is often described as "postmodern" in Turkey as no military force was actually used.]

【注：1997年，土耳其军方通过从背后施加压力，迫使伊斯兰宗教主义的艾巴肯政府下台。由于没有动用任何真正意义上的军事力量，这场政变通常被称作“后现代主义政变”】



WV: There are some pretty big variations on the number of coups in different countries. Do you have any theories for what makes a country more likely to have a coup?

栏目组：不同国家间发生政变的次数有着明显的不同，您能否从中总结出哪种国家更容易发生政变？




JP: The primary reason for large variation is that once a country has a coup, it very often experiences more. For example, coups are now a bit of a rarity, but in the last decade or so, Mauritania, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Thailand and Madagascar have all had multiple attempts (I could easily be forgetting others).

教授：这种差别中最主要的一个原因是，当一个国家发生过一次政变后，这个国家便很有可能会再次发生政变。比如，尽管毛里塔尼亚、埃及、布基纳法索、马里、泰国和马达加斯等国家在近些年中较为稳定，但这些国家在上一个十年里（甚至更早之前）都曾发生过多次政变。




So the question becomes why did they have the first one? Coups also generally occur in disproportionately poor countries that suffer from other forms of political instability (such as protests and/or civil war). In recent years, there seems to be an increasing proportion of coups in new democracies, especially those that seem to already be backsliding toward authoritarianism. Ultimately, the legitimacy of the government is a crucial indicator.

所以问题变成了为什么这些国家会发生第一次政变？政变通常发生在那些存在其他政治不稳定因素（比如抗议或者内战）的贫穷国家。近些年，新兴的民主国家里，尤其是那些已经快要倒退到独裁体制的国家中出现了越来越多的政变。归根结底，政府的合法性是一个至关重要的指标。




WV: If you glance at the map, there seem to be regional clusters of coups. Africa and South America seem to have been particularly prone to coups, for example. Do you have any thoughts as to why that might be?

栏目组：如果看一下地图，您就会发现政变似乎有一种区域集群的效应。非洲以及南美似乎更加容易发生政变，您对此有什么想法？




JP: Geographic clusters are likely due to those regions' countries sharing similar traits. For example, Africa doesn't have more coups than Europe because of its “Africanness,” rather the continent has countries that tend to be poorer and have less developed political institutions.

教授：地理集群的原因可能是这些国家拥有相似的特征。例如，非洲相比欧洲发生过更多的政变，这并非因为非洲更加“非洲”，而是因为这块大陆中的国家往往更加贫穷，他们的政治制度也往往更加落后。




If you look at Africa, for example, you can actually see large variation within the continent. Poorer regions, like West Africa, are rife with coups, while the more developed southern region has rarely seen them. Cold War politics is certainly one major contributor for both regions, though to be clear Latin America was plagued with coups going back well into the 1800s.

如果更加具体地观察下非洲的情况，您就会发现这块大陆中不同的国家也有着非常不同的差别。在那些更加贫穷的国家，例如西非，就会充斥着政变；而在那些更加发达的南部地区，政变则较为少见。至于拉丁美洲，尽管冷战政治是非常重要的一个原因，但应该清楚的是，该地区自19世纪以来便深受政变困扰。




Latin America looks bad historically, but coups are almost extinct in the region. Other than Honduras in 2009, I don’t think there has been a successful coup in the region in the last 20 years.

从历史上看，拉丁美洲发生过多次政变，但近些年来政变的发生已经趋于绝迹。除2009年洪都拉斯的政变之外，过去20年中该地区没有发生过一次成功的政变。




WV: Overall, the number of coups seems to be falling. Why is that?

栏目组：总的来说，全球政变发生的次数看起来在下降，为什么会有这种趋势？




JP: The end of the Cold War is important for both direct and indirect reasons. Aside from the U.S. or USSR deliberately attempting to overthrow or support the overthrow of governments, we have seen a radical change in the global economy in recent decades. Africa and Latin America are far wealthier and can attend to the needs of their citizens and soldiers better.

教授：冷战的结束是一个非常重要的直接/间接因素。除非美国或者苏联在故意推翻某一政府，或是支持了某一推翻政府的力量。我们可以看到世界经济在近几十年中取得了飞跃性的进步。非洲以及拉丁美洲都变得更加富裕，从而可以更好地满足国民以及士兵的需求。




Increased economic interdependence with the rest of the world also gives incentives to support regular political processes (for example, see here andhere). Domestic actors don't want to see perceived instability scare off investors or otherwise undermine their economies, while foreign trading partners have an incentive to try to mediate political crises before they get to the point of a coup. Though there are exceptions, coups have become more and more limited to the world’s poorest and most economically isolated countries.

国家间在经济上的互相依赖也对政治稳定产生了积极作用。各国的国内势力不想看到国外投资者因政治不稳定而从本国逃离资本（或是做出其他破坏该国经济的事情），同时外国贸易伙伴也因利益驱使，而会在形势恶化到政变之前对该国进行政治调解。尽管也存在一些例外，但总体而言，政变越来越被限制于那些世界上最贫穷，经济最孤立的国家。




Related, international organizations have adopted anti-coup frameworks that effectively guarantee sanctions against governments born through coups. This simply makes coups less attractive than they would have been in the past.

与此同时，相关国际组织也出台了一些反政变的政策框架，因由这些框架，那些由政变产生的政府会受到制裁。这使得政变本身变得不再像从前那样具有吸引力。

WV: Is there any reason to believe that this downward trend could change?

栏目组：存在什么原因会导致这种下降的趋势发生改变么？




JP: It would be very bizarre to see them return to the frequencies seen in the ‘60s and ‘70s. For coups to make a real comeback we would need to see a variety of factors converging, such as domestic actors thinking the negative aspects of coups are worth the risk and an international community that doesn’t care (or is outwardly supportive).

教授：政变发生的频率不太可能回到六七十年代的样子。除非多种因素聚集在了一起，例如国内势力相信政变成功的收获会大于经济上的风险，同时国际社会对此不加关注（或是表面上进行支持）




There hasn’t been much systematic work in this area on coups, but over the long run I think issues like food prices/food security could provide a shock that destabilizes many regimes, but we aren’t there yet. These types of dynamics were essential to the Arab Spring, and I don’t think it would be a stretch to think things like food riots wouldn’t destabilize leaders elsewhere.

我们还未在这一方面做过研究，但是长远来看，我认为食品价格/食品安全会是一个非常可能导致风险的因素。食品骚乱是导致阿拉伯之春的一个重要原因，我不认为这种风险不会动摇其他地区统治者的统治力量。



【评论】

Christopher Kidwell

1:12 AM GMT+0800

Illegal, shmelegal. Sometimes you have to say "F' the law!" in order to get a bad person out of power.

违法，但违的是恶法。有些时候你必须不顾法律以让某个恶棍下台。







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NoloContendere

7/22/2016 11:55 PM GMT+0800

Curiously, this map matches perfectly with the map of "CIA Covert Operations (1950 - Present)". Coincidence? You decide!

阴吹思婷，这张地图看起来就像是“CIA秘密行动地图（1950至今）”，

是巧合么？你说的算！

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ewebinss

8:26 AM GMT+0800

Not familiar with the CIA's interest in Burkina Faso and Togo. Enlighten me.

CIA对布基纳法索和多哥也有兴趣？跟我讲讲
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