全文： 6park.com
Wang Liqiang's story is unconvincing so far Public trust is now in the line 6park.com
Nov 25 6park.com
Adam Ni and Yun Jiang, China Neican 6park.com
We have approached our analysis with great care given the possibility that Mr Wang and his family may be in danger. The following analysis is based on existing publicly available information. 6park.com
Many of Mr Wang’s public claims are unsupported or uncorroborated based on the available evidence thus far. Some of his claims are not true, and some of his statements detract from his credibility. Circumstantial evidence has raised additional questions. If Mr Wang was later discredited, it could undermine the public’s trust in Australian media and political leaders. In the future, the public may be less inclined to believe foreign interference is a real and credible threat in Australia. 如果王被证实是假间谍，澳洲的媒体，政治领导的公信力会破产。将来没人信真的有外国干扰澳洲。 6park.com
Australian media broke the story of the defection of an alleged PRC intelligence operative, Mr Wang Liqiang 王立强, on Saturday, 23 November. Mr Wang asserts that he was involved in the Causeway kidnappings in late-2015, the infiltration of HK student organisations, and information operations in both HK and Taiwan to advance the CCP’s interests. 6park.com
We make the following observations: 给出下面的疑点 6park.com
Much of the evidence presented by Mr Wang in his media interviews are general and vague in nature. The operations he mentioned are known in the public domain, and he did not reveal new credible details about these operations. 王给出的间谍证据都是媒体上已经有或模糊的，没有细节。 6park.com
On least three occasions, Mr Wang called by the wrong name the Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department (or its predecessor, the General Staff Department), which conducts military intelligence operations. On each one of the three occasions, he used a different wrong name. This is highly revealing.三次说错中央军委总参部的名称。 6park.com
It is highly unusual for one junior intelligence operative (our assumption given his current 27 years of age) to play a big role in all these high-profile operations in different jurisdictions in a short period of time. 
在重要行动中，由一名初级情报人员扮演重要角色，还是在短时间内跨越多个司法管辖区,是"极为罕见的"。 6park.com
Mr Wang claims that Beijing has a “cyber army” conducting information operations in Taiwan and that he was their “boss”. This is unlikely given his age, education background, and expertise.自称他是中国网军的领导，资历/学历/专业特长都不符合。（显然他不是计算机专业，能指导网军黑客吗？） 6park.com
Working across Taiwan, HK and Australia in such a short period of time appear to be unusual given imperatives for intelligence operatives to specialise, and develop their local networks. 情报人员要发展区域组织，很少会在短时间内同时跨台湾，香港，澳洲三个地方的。 6park.com
Mr Wang claims that as a PRC intelligence operative, he was sent to infiltrate HK universities to convert pro-democracy students to the CCP’s side. He added that “many of the [mainland] students he influenced are now involved in the violent clashes with pro-democracy students.” There is no evidence that mainland and HK pro-democracy students have engaged in “violent clashes”.自称他促成了内地学生和香港学生的暴力冲突。可是没证据，有很多内地学生卷入。 6park.com
ASIO has so far not provided Mr Wang with protection. If his claims are true, then his intelligence value would presumably be quite considerable. 估计是没有什么价值，澳洲情报局并没有保护他。 6park.com
We find it surprising that his wife and child are allowed by the CCP to be based in Australia despite him working as an intelligence operative on sensitive operations. 他是情报人员，惊奇的是共产党会让他的妻子孩子待澳洲。 6park.com
He was allowed to travel to Australia on a holiday Visa, which seem unlikely if he was working on important intelligence operations.
作为重要情报人员，不太可能被中国政府允许持旅游签证去澳洲。 6park.com
The way that Mr Wang talked about the HK protests and students indicates that he does not have a solid grasp of local politics which he should have. 他表达的没有香港当地政见。 6park.com
Mr Wang claims that he was involved in the ordering of the Causeway kidnapping operations in HK in late-2015. He did not provide any corroborating detail. 他参加铜锣湾事件没有细节。 6park.com
In describing the activities of the “cyber army,” Mr Wang talked about taking down Facebook pages and using VPN to hide their tracks. The way that he talked about cyber operations, in general, did not indicate he had expert knowledge in this area. 没有给出他的网特专业知识。 6park.com
Upon being asked where Huang Xiaomo was, Mr Wang asserted confidently that he was in the office of Mr Wang’s boss at that exact moment in time. It is unclear how Mr Wang could be so confident about this. 6park.com
His possession of multiple identity paper appears unusual given the possibility of compromise if he was discovered to be carrying them at the same time. His alleged Korean Passport appears to be an amateur production.韩国护照伪造的水平很业余（韩国自媒体称护照上的签名部分还是打印的女性名字） 6park.com
He claims to be working for military intelligence, but appear to be unclear about the work breakdown between the PLA, MSS and other party-state actors involved in intelligence.军队情报员，却分不清中国情报机构的分工。 6park.com
Mr Wang claims to work for Chinese military intelligence. He does not appear to have military training or intelligence operative training. He does not have any PLA rank which is unusual for military intelligence officials.作为军队情报人员却没有军阶。 6park.com
There are indications that Mr Wang does not speak English. Given his alleged intelligence role in HK, English skills would have been important.去香港参加情报工作，却基本不会说英语。（也不会广东话。） 6park.com
Mr Wang’s account of his mission to Taiwan appears unusual. He said he was given a Korean passport to go to Taiwan to meddle in the upcoming elections. But there is no indication that he speaks Korean.不会说韩语，却持韩国护照去台湾从事间谍活动。（也不会台湾的闽南话，他是靠近江西的光泽人。） 6park.com
There may be explanations for some or all of the above observations that are in Mr Wang’s favour. But given the total weight of these observations, we are sceptical of Mr Wang’s claims and credibility. 6park.com
Implications for Australia: 对澳洲的影响 6park.com
Several major Australian news organisations, as well as parliamentarians such as Andrew Hastie, have appeared to publicly support Mr Wang’s claims. If his claims turn out to be credible and true, then his intelligence could prove valuable. 许多澳洲媒体和国会议员如Andrew Hastie都支持王立强的间谍声明，如果是真的，也许他的情报有价值。 6park.com
However, if important elements of his claims were later discredited, it can undermine the trust the Australian public has in the Australian media. It may even undermine trust in any future defectors. Most importantly, it may damage Australia’s ongoing countering foreign interference efforts. The Australian public may be less likely to believe that foreign interference is a real and credible threat in Australia. 然而，重要的是如果那是假的，澳洲的媒体，政治领导的公信力会破产。将来没人信真的有外国干扰澳洲。

贴主:sunnysky于2019_11_26 1:25:52编辑