估值最低12.2c，最高26.3c，中值20c

目前股价是9.7c。。。 没啥说的，开始买吧，预计下周要开始新一轮上升啦！我短期目标16c，中期目标20c （cash flow positive），2018年目标50c （前提是和chairman预计的一样，下一年签署超过40个contract）

Hello from Stuart Roberts in Sydney,

This email is coming to you from NDF Research, a firm I started in May 
of this year which is a specialist provider of independent research 
focused on ASX-listed Life Science companies.

 

 

Today we’re initiating coverage on Alcidion (ASX: ALC), an emerging 
health informatics company based in Adelaide, which went public on the 
ASX in early 2016. I learned an astounding fact while I was researching 
Alcidion’s market environment. Did you know that an estimated 250,000 
deaths in the US, or 9.5% of all deaths, can be attributed to medical 
error, even though the actual recorded cause of death is something else?
 Alcidion has technology that can help reduce these deaths while making 
hospitals much more efficient.

 

At the moment, Miya is being used at 11 hospitals in Australia, and 
generates annual revenue of around A$4-5m pa. Alcidion is being built 
around an informatics platform called ‘Miya’, which is designed to 
integrate various Clinical Information Systems within a hospital 
environment, take information from these systems vital to the care 
teams, and push that information to the ‘care frontline’ primarily via 
mobile devices and large format interactive displays. The Alcidion 
platform is a broad one, encompassing the Emergency Department as well 
as Inpatient and Outpatient Care, and includes Electronic Health Record 
(EHR) and Clinical Decision Support capability.

Alcidion stock has more than doubled since it listed on the ASX in late 
February, a re-rating driven primarily by commercial progress in 
Australia. In our initiation note we argue that the market continues to 
undervalue Alcidion, given the significant investments now going into 
health informatics and Clinical Decision Support Systems around the 
world, and the unique nature of Alcidion’s platform, which by markedly 
improving the quality of hospital care is attracting new users.

 

 

We value Alcidion at 12.2 cents per share base case and 26.3 cents per share optimistic case using a DCF approach. Our target price of 20 cents per share
 sits at the midpoint of our valuation range. We see various contract 
wins in Australia and New Zealand, and the beginning of US commercial 
interest, as driving a continued re-rating.

 

 

You can download a copy of NDF Research’s first report on Alcidioion by clicking here or visiting ndfresearch.com. 

I commend the report to you.

 

Merry Christmas from NDF Research.

 

 

We published our first report on an ASX-listed Life Science company in 
late July. We have been busy ever since thanks to the outstanding 
support we’ve received from client companies and investors right across 
Australia and New Zealand and around the world. 

 

On behalf of all of us at NDF Research, we want to say Thank You for 
backing us in 2016. If, as we are, you are celebrating Christmas, may 
you and those close to you have a wonderful and blessed time as we 
remember the birth of Jesus, the Great Physician. And for all of us, 
here’s to great outcomes for patients and shareholders alike in 2017.