美国总统地产大亨唐纳德·特朗普称,美国现在失业率实际数字高达20%,股市被严重高估,经济正处于“大规模衰退”边缘。 

Some economists are pushing back against Donald Trump’s comments that the 
U.S. is headed toward a "massive recession," calling 
the New York real estate developer’s assertions "unfounded" and flat-out 
wrong.



 


特朗普近日发表言论说，美国经济正处于“大规模衰退”边缘。这遭到一些经济学家批判特列队批驳，称这个纽约的房地产开发商的言论是“毫无根据的”，是“完全的错误”。


 


Trump told The Washington Post over the weekend that the U.S. is headed for 
a "very massive recession," and he said the nation’s unemployment situation is 
much worse than reported.


 


周末，特朗普告诉华盛顿邮报说，美国正走向一个 “大规模的衰退”时期，并称美国实际的失业情况要比报道的要糟糕得多。


 


“First of all, we’re not at 5 percent unemployment. We’re at a number 
that’s probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” he said. 
“That was a number that was devised, statistically devised 
to make politicians — and, in particular, presidents — look good. And I wouldn’t 
be getting the kind of massive crowds that I’m getting if the number was a real 
number.”


 


“首先，美国的失业率不是5%。如果你想知道真实的数字，恐怕在百分之二十几，”他说。“官方统计是经过人为操纵的，为的是那些政客，尤其是总统，脸上有光。而且如果这个数字是真实的话，那么我不可能会知道失业的人群是如此庞大。”


 


In La Crosse, Wisconsin, Trump doubled-down on his recession call, 
telling supporters today that "bubbles aren’t pretty. We’ve had bubbles, and 
when they burst, it’s not a good thing. And what I said is we’re going 
to go into a massive recession, but I also 
say if I’m president that’s not going to happen. Because I’m gonna straighten 
things out before it happens."


 


在威斯康星州的拉克罗斯，特朗普再一次提到了经济衰退，当天他告诉支持者说，“泡沫并不美好，我们正坐在泡沫上，而当他们爆破时，并不是一件好事。而我说的是我们将进入一个大规模的衰退时期。但我也表示，如果我当选为总统，这绝不会发生。因为在它发生前，我会处理得很好。“


 


Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York, told 
Reuters, "We’re not heading for a recession, massive or 
minor, and the unemployment rate is not 20 percent."


 


美国裕信全球研究公司首席经济分析师哈姆·班德霍尔茨说:“我们不会走向经济衰退,无论严重与否,失业率也不是他口中的20%。”


 


Boston College economics professor Robert Murphy agrees. “Donald Trump’s 
comments that the U.S. economy is heading 
toward a deep recession in which the unemployment rate will reach 20 percent 
is completely unfounded,” he told ABC News.


 


波士顿大学经济学教授罗伯特·墨菲对此表示赞同。“特朗普认为美国经济正在走向严重的经济衰退，并且失业率将达到20％，是完全没有根据的，”他告诉ABC新闻。


 


AFL-CIO chief economist William E. Spriggs also disputed Trump’s 
numbers.


 


美国劳联产联首席经济学家威廉·斯普里格斯也驳斥了特朗普所说的数字。


 


“Though GDP growth is slowed, job growth has continued at a pace to close 
the job gap near January,” he told ABC News. “The broadest measure of 
unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those who are part-time who 
wish full-time, is now in single digits. So, a claim of 20 percent unemployment 
is not true. It is that high for some groups, like black teenagers, but not for 
whole populations.”


 


“虽然GDP增速放缓，就业却稳步增长着，缩小了与二月份前后的就业差距，”他告诉ABC新闻。 
“度量失业率最广泛的指标可以看那些曾希望寻求全职工作的兼职工作者的指数，这个数字目前已是个位数。因此，失业率高达20%的说法是错误的。对于某些群体，像黑人青少年群体，确实有那么高的失业率，但对于整个美国来说并非如此。”


 


On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate was 5 
percent in March, relatively unchanged since August.


 


上周五，美国劳工部报告说，三月份的失业率是5%，这个数字自去年八月以来变化不大。


 


Murphy, who served in the Clinton administration as a senior economist at 
the Council of Economic Advisers, said the recent rebound in the stock market, 
positive news on consumer spending and continuing reports on employment growth 
suggest an economy sustaining a moderate pace of economic growth.


 


曾在克林顿政府担任过经济顾问委员会的高级经济学家墨菲表示，近期股市的反弹，消费支出的正面消息和就业增长持续报道都表明美国经济正在逐渐稳步增长。


 


"Even with headwinds from China and Europe, the U.S. economy remains in good 
shape and likelihood of a recession in the next 
year is negligible," he said.


 


“即使有来自中国和欧洲的不利因素，美国经济仍处于良好状态，明年经济衰退的可能性微乎其微，”他说。


 


Trump also repeated his frustration with the “stupidity” of trade deals 
with the Post, and said he would negotiate "all of our deals, the big trade 
deals that we’re doing so badly on" if elected president.


 


特朗普还重申了对于与邮政签订贸易协议的“愚蠢行为”的无奈，并说若他当选为美国总统，他将会协调“美国所有的交易，而目前美国大型的贸易交易都进行得很糟糕”。