| 送交者: 山村听雨[★★★声望勋衔14★★★] 于 2020-03-07 19:33 已读 745 次 | 山村听雨的个人频道 |
https://mobile.twitter.com/LizSpecht 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.comLiz Specht 6park.com@LizSpecht 6park.com 6park.com·
Mar 6 6park.com 6park.comAs healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n 6park.com 6park.com22 6park.com 6park.com772 6park.com 6park.com4.6K 6park.com 6park.com 6park.comShow this thread 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com6park.com 6park.com 6park.comLiz Specht 6park.com@LizSpecht 6park.com 6park.com·
Mar 6 6park.com 6park.comIf only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n 6park.com 6park.com17 6park.com 6park.com664 6park.com 6park.com4.4K 6park.com 6park.com 6park.comShow this thread 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com6park.com 6park.com 6park.comLiz Specht 6park.com@LizSpecht 6park.com 6park.com·
Mar 6 6park.com 6park.comIf we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n 6park.com 6park.com24 6park.com 6park.com781 6park.com 6park.com4.7K 6park.com 6park.com 6park.comShow this thread 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com6park.com 6park.com 6park.comLiz Specht 6park.com@LizSpecht 6park.com 6park.com·
Mar 6 6park.com 6park.comBy this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n 6park.com
请点这里投票，“赞”助支持！