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【信心崩溃时刻，巴菲特发话了：危害比不上2008年】
10天4次熔断，巴菲特亏800多亿美元，但他却说…… 6park.com沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）表示，负利率的前景有些令人困惑，但不会让他感到害怕。 6park.com他称，病毒和石油对经济造成了双连击，目前疫情可能仍处于最坏的阶段。但他指出，此次因新冠肺炎疫情和油价大跌所导致的危机，危害比不上2008年。 6park.com巴菲特：负利率前景令人困惑 6park.com巴菲特表示，负利率的前景有些令人困惑。他说：“它们（负利率）使我困惑，但他们并不让我感到害怕。” 6park.com美国政策制定者正在努力采取行动，应对新冠病毒对经济带来的冲击。周日，美联储将基准利率降低了100个基点，至0-0.25%。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔当时表示，他不认为负利率是适当的政策，但本周10年期美债收益率一度跌至0.31％的历史低位。 6park.com巴菲特表示，病毒和石油冲击的影响是在“双连击”。长期以来，巴菲特一直主张投资股票而不是债券。截至去年年底，他的股票投资总额高达2480亿美元。 6park.com巴菲特在今年2月发布的年度股东致信中表示，如果长期维持当前的利率和较低的公司税，那股票跑赢长期固定利率债务工具几乎是可以肯定的。不过他表示，自己不是预测利率走势的专家。他说：“我从未能够预测利率。利率很重要，但我们认为这是不可预知的。” 6park.com巴菲特：疫情可能仍处最坏阶段 6park.com对于疫情，巴菲特称，新冠疫情正在全球蔓延，现在无人知晓疫情将持续多久、蔓延规模有多大，目前疫情可能仍处于最坏的阶段。 6park.com在被问及疫情是否对自己生活造成影响时，巴菲特幽默地表示，只是多喝了点可乐，自己身体很棒，现在的身体状况比几年前好多了。 6park.com巴菲特还表示，目前为止疫情尚未对自己的生活真正造成影响，可以在家里轻松地办公，但医生告知自己不要去人多的地方。 6park.com值得注意的是，一年一度的伯克希尔股东大会将于5月2日如期举行。不过，鉴于疫情可能对健康造成影响，将取消线下活动，改为线上直播。 6park.com巴菲特称油价将自我修正 6park.com谈到石油，巴菲特表示，现在人们出行方式变化导致石油需求变少。航班减少了，开车的人少了，大家在家工作。石油价格在一定时间内会自我修正。 6park.com近日，由于沙特和俄罗斯在减产上存在分歧，油价暴跌崩盘。周三，WTI 4月原油期货收跌6.58美元，跌幅24.42%，创历史上第三大单日跌幅，报20.37美元/桶，逼近20美元整数关口，最近10个交易日跌去56%，创1983年成立合约以来最大的连续10天跌幅。布伦特5月原油期货收跌3.85美元，跌幅13.4%，报24.88美元/桶，最近10天累跌51%，创1988年成立合约以来最大的连续10天跌幅。 6park.com股市多次熔断，巴菲特难逃亏损厄运 6park.com美国股市在短短几天内遭遇四次熔断，让巴菲特感叹“活久见”，伯克希尔公司也未能幸免亏损的厄运。 6park.com美国网站GuruFocus指出，自2020年2月19日美股滑入熊市以来，巴菲特的股票投资组合损失了约802亿美元，跌幅32%。其持有的三大股票，苹果公司、美国银行以及可口可乐公司分别损失了199.5亿美元、132亿美元以及58亿美元。 6park.com几天内四次熔断，对于美国股市来说，这已经是疯狂的几周。3月9日美股熔断引发全球股市巨震；3月12日，开盘后仅5分钟即触发当周第二次熔断；3月16日美股开盘再次熔断；3月18日，道指跌破19000点关口，股市又一次熔断，回吐特朗普上任来全部涨幅。美股三大指数均较2月的历史高点回落超过30%。 6park.com巴菲特做多航空股和银行股 6park.com在美股暴跌之际，巴菲特抄底了达美航空和纽约梅隆银行。巴菲特此前公开表示，此次因新冠肺炎疫情和油价大跌所导致的危机，危害比不上2008年。 6park.com不过，在巴菲特买入后，航空股和银行股都继续大跌，股神“抄底”似乎抄在了“半山腰”。 6park.com根据伯克希尔哈撒韦提交的信息披露报告，巴菲特3月3日完成对纽约梅隆银行的增持。增持之后，巴菲特、伯克希尔哈撒韦及旗下公司共持有8900万股纽约梅隆银行，持股比例为10.06%。 6park.com按照3月3日增持923.49万股，平均每股40美元左右估算，“股神”这笔交易可能斥资3.8亿美元。然而纽约梅隆银行股价在3月18日的暴跌中最低触及26.40美元，较巴菲特增持价已下挫约34%。 6park.com此外，2月27日，伯克希尔哈撒韦以每股45.48美元至47.14美元的价格买入97.65万股达美航空股票，斥资约4530万美元，持有的达美航空股份增至7188.6963万股。 6park.com3月18日达美航空暴跌，盘中一度跌到19.1美元，远远低于巴菲特的增持价格，股神动手的时间似乎又早了；之后美国发布了限制来往欧美航班等各种应对疫情的措施，进一步打击了航空股走势。 6park.com不过，伯克希尔公司手握近1300亿美元现金，随着股市“跌跌不休”，奉行“别人恐惧我贪婪”的股神，接下来或许还有其它动作。 6park.comWarren Buffett on negative rates and 'the most important question in the world'
Andy Serwer
Editor in Chief
Yahoo FinanceMarch 18, 2020 6park.comIf you’re wondering what ultra-low or even negative interest rates will do to the financial markets, you are not alone. Warren Buffett is wondering too. To be clear though, he’s not particularly freaked out. Vexed, but not freaked. 6park.comAs yields on U.S. Treasury securities fall to record lows — the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) dropped to 0.398% at one point this week — many worry that negative interest rates, already prevalent in Japan and Europe, will soon arrive on our shores. If that were to be the case, what the heck would it mean? 6park.comI asked Warren Buffett about negative rates last week during an interview at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) headquarters in Omaha. 6park.comFirst, Buffett conceded that in general the bond market with its super low rates, and wildly swinging yield curve, “is really crazy.” But then he made it clear that neither he nor his partner Charlie Munger have any expertise or any interest in predicting where interest rates are headed. 6park.com“Charlie and I focus on what's knowable and important,” he said. “Now, interest rates are important, but we don't think they're knowable.” 6park.comBuffett talked to me about his circle of competence: “My circle of competence doesn't include the ability to predict interest rates a day from now, or a year from now, or five years now. Can I function without knowing that? It's the same way as predicting what business is going to do, what the stock market's going to do. I can't do any of those things. But that doesn't mean I can't do well investing over time.”“The most important question in the world”
As for negative rates per se, Buffett says the situation is “unbelievable.” 6park.comWhen I asked Buffett specifically what are the actual implications of negative rates, he went positively Yoda on me. 6park.com“I would say that's the most important question in the world,” said the Oracle of Omaha. “And I don't know the answer. Now, if we knew the answer, it wouldn't be the most important question.” 6park.comOhhhh.... 6park.comMe: “I don't like that.” 6park.comBuffett: “No, but it's true.” 6park.comAnother question to Warren: Has investing in equities changed given the interest rate environment? 6park.com“It reduces the hurdle rate,” he says. “That's why they [business people, investors, governments] like to decrease it. It pushes asset values higher.” 6park.comFinal question: “Do negative rates scare you, Warren?” 6park.com“They puzzle me,” Buffett said. “But they don't scare me.” 6park.comThat’s an answer which should give us some, but not total, comfort. 6park.com
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