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人民币兑美元汇率创2008年以来最佳表现
送交者: salonyudi[★★声望品衔9★★] 于 2020-10-01 14:11 已读 3134 次  

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人民币兑美元汇率创自2008年以来的最好纪录

China’s yuan records best performance against dollar since 2008
《MarketWatch》Published: Sept. 30, 2020
[摘译]

去年8月,当时人民币十多年来首次突破7美元大关,此举加剧了中美贸易战,并短暂震撼了全球股市。而今年上半年,冠状病毒在中国的传播,其潜在的经济影响对人民币造成压力,使人民币回升至离岸交易中为每美元7美元。人民币的疲软是值得注意的,但并非完全引起恐慌。


从那往后,人民币兑美元汇率一直在回升。是因为中国在处理冠状病毒大流行的经济影响方面比美国好吗? 6park.com

摩根大通(JP Morgan)的分析师写道:“外汇投资者已经接受了中国经济增长的例外论。”这是人民币兑美元汇率自2008年初以来最好的季度。一些分析家还指出,中国在全球债券指数中的比重越来越大,这可能是其曾经一度受到严格控制的资本市场流入量增加的另一个驱动因素。北京放宽了对债券市场的控制,希望将其纳入全球债务基准中;上周,中国被列入富时世界政府债券指数。摩根大通(JP Morgan)分析师估计,将中国政府债券纳入全球基准债券指数(日本投资者广泛使用该指数),将从明年10月开始每月向中国债务市场注入100亿美元资金。 6park.com

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师预计,在未来十年中,此举将帮助中国吸引多达3万亿美元的证券投资流入,到2030年,人民币将占全球储备资产的10%。 6park.com

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原文链接:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-yuan-records-best-performance-against-dollar-since-2008-11601509545
原文COPY:
China’s yuan records best performance against dollar since 2008
Published: Sept. 30, 2020 at 7:45 p.m. ET
By Sunny Oh
MarketWatch 6park.com

Yuan’s 3Q performance against the dollar is matched only by the 2008 financial crisis 6park.com

[NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images] 6park.com

The Chinese yuan has been making a comeback against the dollar. Is that because China has been better than the U.S. at managing the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic? 6park.com

That’s at least what some analysts think has been happening, following the yuan’s surging value over the past few months. 6park.com

“FX investors have accepted the notion of Chinese exceptionalism in growth,” wrote analysts at JP Morgan. 6park.com

The yuan booked a 3.7% gain USDCNY against the dollar in the third-quarter, its best such performance since the first quarter of 2008, the chart below shows. 6park.com

CNY vs USD change MW 2020-09-30.png
Société Générale 6park.com

Analysts pointed to the combination of increased capital inflows into China, the world’s second-largest economy, and Beijing’s relative strength across the globe as catalysts of the yuan’s appreciation since the end of June. 6park.com

See: What the coronavirus outbreak means for the Chinese yuan (bellow) 6park.com

The boost for the yuan during the third quarter, which ended Wednesday, marked its best showing against the greenback in more than a decade. 6park.com

Specifically, it was the yuan’s best quarter against the buck since early 2008, when China’s surge in stimulus spending combined with worries about U.S. financial markets that were flirting with the brink of collapse to briefly power the yuan’s strength against the dollar. 6park.com

This time around, the greenback has seen a dramatic weakening, in part, due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates to near-zero to help cushion the economy during the pandemic, and to reduce the previously wide differentials between U.S. interest rates and its counterparts in Europe and Japan. 6park.com

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.15% has lost 3.7% this quarter, leaving it down 2.7% year-to-date. 6park.com

Yet, even as the Fed has eased policy, Chinese policy makers haven’t loosened the monetary spigots in the same way as other developed market central banks, partly due to concerns that it could lead to rampant and unstable growth in lending. 6park.com

Analysts also expect China’s resilience to further contribute to the yuan’s strength. The country is forecast to grow by 2% this year, even as the U.S. is forecast to shrink by 6.1%. 6park.com

Recent Chinese data has underlined the country’s bounceback from its pandemic low. Its official purchasing managers index for September came in at 51.5 for the manufacturing sector and 55.9 for the services industry. Any number above 50 marks an expansion in economic activity. 6park.com

Some analysts also have noted China’s growing weight in global bond indexes, potentially another driver of increased inflows into its once tightly controlled capital markets. Beijing has slackened its grip over it’s bond markets in the hopes of earning its inclusion in world-wide debt benchmarks, which hold huge sway in terms of where money managers put their funds. 6park.com

China was included in the FTSE World Government Bond Index last week. Chinese bonds also represent 5.3% of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index GLAB, -0.07% and 9.4% for JP Morgan’s emerging market bond index. 6park.com

JP Morgan analysts estimate that the inclusion of Chinese government bonds into the global benchmark bond index, which is widely used by Japanese investors, would introduce $10 billion of monthly inflows into China’s debt markets starting from next October. 6park.com

Over the next decade, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the move to help China attract up to $3 trillion worth of portfolio inflows, and for the yuan to account for up to 10% of global reserve assets by 2030.
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