模型分析:川普胜利的概率12%,依然有机会
Latest newsOCT. 23, 2020 6park.com Thursday marked the final presidential debate, and the question now is will the race tighten? President Trump is simply running out of time to mount a comeback and Joe Biden has a hefty lead in national and state polls. We’re now in the home stretch before Election Day, and we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, he has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.) Want to test out our forecast and see what happens if Trump wins Florida or Biden wins Texas? Well, now you can! We’ve built an interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways Trump or Biden could win the election. But there are limits. (Yes, we’ve seen the Fivey memes.) If Biden or Trump has less than a 1.5 percent chance of winning a state, you can’t select that candidate, as ultimately we’re hoping you’ll use this tool to explore some very plausible scenarios. That’s certainly how we plan to use it in the lead-up to the election — and beyond if it’s not clear who the winner is on election night.The last two weeks of the campaign can be an incredibly stressful time, so editor-in-chief Nate Silver offers eight tips to stay sane, including paying attention to polling averages (not individual polls) and not putting too much stock in how either campaign “feels” (they usually do not have a better read on the race than the polls).
2020 ELECTION COVERAGE 6park.comWhat Would Democrats Do If They Controlled Congress And The White House?
By Clare Malone 6park.com Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020
By Dhrumil Mehta, Michael Tabb and Anna Rothschild 6park.com To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast! 6park.comBiden is favored to win the electionWe simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. 6park.com TIE+400ELECTORAL VOTEMARGIN+200+200+40012 in 10012 in 100Trump winsTrump wins87 in 10087 in 100Biden winsBiden wins 6park.com 6park.comELECTORAL VOTES 6park.comTrump ✓
318 6park.com Biden
220 6park.com Trump win 6park.comBiden win 6park.comNo Electoral College majority, House decides election 6park.comDon’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. 6park.comEvery outcome in our simulationsAll possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations 6park.com 0100200300400500270 ELECTORAL VOTESSmoothedrollingaverageTrumpTrumpwinswinsMorelikelyMorelikely 6park.com0100200300400500BidenBidenwinswins 6park.comMore bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins. Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know! 6park.comThe winding path to victoryStates that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top. 6park.com VOTE MARGINSTIPPING POINTS 6park.com270 ELECTORAL VOTESNE3WYWVOKLAHOMAIDNDARKANSASALABAMAKENTUCKYNETENNESSEELOUISIANASDUTAHMISSISSIPPINE1KANSASINDIANAMISSOURIMTSOUTH CAROLINAAKTEXASOHIOGEORGIAIOWAME2ARIZONAFLORIDANORTH CAROLINANE2PENNSYLVANIAWISCONSINNEVADAMICHIGANMINNESOTANHMECOLORADOVIRGINIANMOREGONILLINOISNEW JERSEYME1CONNECTICUTWASHINGTONDERINEW YORKCALIFORNIAMARYLANDHIVTMASSACHUSETTSDC 6park.comWest VirginiaWest Virginia 6park.comMaine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district. 6park.comWe call this the 🐍 snake 🐍 chart! This makes it easy to see why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored. 6park.comUS SENATE
Democrats are favored to win See the forecast 6park.com US HOUSE
Democrats are clearly favored to win See the forecast 6park.com How the forecast has changedThe forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. 6park.com CHANCE OF WINNINGELECTORAL VOTESPOPULAR VOTE 6park.comJUNE 1JULY 1AUG. 1SEPT. 1OCT. 1NOV. 10 20 40 60 80 100%87128712in100in100in100in10080% of outcomesfall in this range80% of outcomesfall in this range 6park.comAs the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain. 6park.comWeird and not-so-weird possibilitiesThe chances that these situations will crop up Trump wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College4 in 100Biden wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College96 in 100Trump wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College2 in 100Biden wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College94 in 100Trump wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin<1 in 100Biden wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin32 in 100Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College<1 in 100Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College9 in 100No one wins the Electoral CollegeNo candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election<1 in 100Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 201624 in 100Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 201696 in 100The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016<1 in 100The election hinges on a recountCandidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states5 in 100 6park.com Who’s ahead in national polls?Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls. 6park.com See our national polling averages 6park.comSee states with the closest racesSee states close to the tipping point 6park.comIowaIowa 6park.comGeorgiaGeorgia 6park.comOhioOhio 6park.comTexasTexas 6park.comArizonaArizona 6park.comFloridaFlorida 6park.comNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina 6park.comPennsylvaniaPennsylvania 6park.comWisconsinWisconsin 6park.comOr choose another stateAlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMaine 1st DistrictMaine 2nd DistrictMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNebraska 1st DistrictNebraska 2nd DistrictNebraska 3rd DistrictNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming 6park.comWant more stuff like this? See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch our Election Updates on YouTube. 6park.comWe made this 6park.comFORECAST MODEL
Nate Silver 6park.com PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Christopher Groskopf 6park.com DESIGN
Ryan Best
Jasmine Mithani
Anna Wiederkehr 6park.com CONTENT EDITING
Micah Cohen
Sarah Frostenson
Christopher Groskopf
Nate Silver 6park.com ART DIRECTION
Emily Scherer 6park.com ILLUSTRATION
Fabio Buonocore
Joey Ellis 6park.com DEVELOPMENT
Ryan Best
Jay Boice
Aaron Bycoffe
Christopher Groskopf
Elena Mejía
Jasmine Mithani
Anna Wiederkehr
Julia Wolfe
Yutong Yuan 6park.com COPY EDITING
Colleen Barry
Jennifer Mason 6park.com DATA & RESEARCH
Aaron Bycoffe
Dhrumil Mehta
Mary Radcliffe
Derek Shan 6park.com Download the data:PollsModel outputs 6park.com Notice a 🐛?Send us an email. 6park.com Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology. 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com 6park.comRELATED STORIES
|