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模型分析:川普胜利的概率12%,依然有机会
送交者: 伪类[☆品衔R4☆] 于 2020-10-25 14:36 已读 1131 次  

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Latest news

OCT. 23, 2020 6park.com

Thursday marked the final presidential debate, and the question now is will the race tighten? President Trump is simply running out of time to mount a comeback and Joe Biden has a hefty lead in national and state polls. We’re now in the home stretch before Election Day, and we’re way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. Still, he has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
Want to test out our forecast and see what happens if Trump wins Florida or Biden wins Texas? Well, now you can! We’ve built an interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways Trump or Biden could win the election. But there are limits. (Yes, we’ve seen the Fivey memes.) If Biden or Trump has less than a 1.5 percent chance of winning a state, you can’t select that candidate, as ultimately we’re hoping you’ll use this tool to explore some very plausible scenarios. That’s certainly how we plan to use it in the lead-up to the election — and beyond if it’s not clear who the winner is on election night.The last two weeks of the campaign can be an incredibly stressful time, so editor-in-chief Nate Silver offers eight tips to stay sane, including paying attention to polling averages (not individual polls) and not putting too much stock in how either campaign “feels” (they usually do not have a better read on the race than the polls).

2020 ELECTION COVERAGE 6park.com

What Would Democrats Do If They Controlled Congress And The White House?

By Clare Malone
6park.com

Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

By Dhrumil Mehta, Michael Tabb and Anna Rothschild
6park.com

To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast! 6park.com

Biden is favored to win the election

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. 6park.com

TIE+400ELECTORAL VOTEMARGIN+200+200+40012 in 10012 in 100Trump winsTrump wins87 in 10087 in 100Biden winsBiden wins 6park.com

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ELECTORAL VOTES

6park.com

Trump ✓

318 6park.com

Biden

220 6park.com

Trump win 6park.com

Biden win 6park.com

No Electoral College majority, House decides election 6park.com

Don’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. 6park.com

Every outcome in our simulations

All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations 6park.com

0100200300400500270 ELECTORAL VOTESSmoothedrollingaverageTrumpTrumpwinswinsMorelikelyMorelikely 6park.com

0100200300400500BidenBidenwinswins 6park.com

More bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins. Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know! 6park.com

The winding path to victory

States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top. 6park.com

VOTE MARGINSTIPPING POINTS
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270 ELECTORAL VOTESNE3WYWVOKLAHOMAIDNDARKANSASALABAMAKENTUCKYNETENNESSEELOUISIANASDUTAHMISSISSIPPINE1KANSASINDIANAMISSOURIMTSOUTH CAROLINAAKTEXASOHIOGEORGIAIOWAME2ARIZONAFLORIDANORTH CAROLINANE2PENNSYLVANIAWISCONSINNEVADAMICHIGANMINNESOTANHMECOLORADOVIRGINIANMOREGONILLINOISNEW JERSEYME1CONNECTICUTWASHINGTONDERINEW YORKCALIFORNIAMARYLANDHIVTMASSACHUSETTSDC 6park.com

West VirginiaWest Virginia 6park.com

Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district. 6park.com

We call this the 🐍 snake 🐍 chart! This makes it easy to see why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored. 6park.com

US SENATE

Democrats are favored to win
See the forecast 6park.com

US HOUSE

Democrats are clearly favored to win
See the forecast 6park.com

How the forecast has changed

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. 6park.com

CHANCE OF WINNINGELECTORAL VOTESPOPULAR VOTE 6park.com

JUNE 1JULY 1AUG. 1SEPT. 1OCT. 1NOV. 10 20 40 60 80 100%87128712in100in100in100in10080% of outcomesfall in this range80% of outcomesfall in this range 6park.com

As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain. 6park.com

Weird and not-so-weird possibilities

The chances that these situations will crop up
Trump wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College4 in 100Biden wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College96 in 100Trump wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College2 in 100Biden wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College94 in 100Trump wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin<1 in 100Biden wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin32 in 100Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College<1 in 100Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College9 in 100No one wins the Electoral CollegeNo candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election<1 in 100Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 201624 in 100Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 201696 in 100The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016<1 in 100The election hinges on a recountCandidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states5 in 100 6park.com

Who’s ahead in national polls?

Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls. 6park.com

See our national polling averages
6park.com

See states with the closest racesSee states close to the tipping point

6park.com

IowaIowa 6park.com

GeorgiaGeorgia 6park.com

OhioOhio 6park.com

TexasTexas 6park.com

ArizonaArizona 6park.com

FloridaFlorida 6park.com

North CarolinaNorth Carolina 6park.com

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania 6park.com

WisconsinWisconsin 6park.com

Or choose another stateAlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMaine 1st DistrictMaine 2nd DistrictMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNebraska 1st DistrictNebraska 2nd DistrictNebraska 3rd DistrictNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming 6park.com

Want more stuff like this? See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch our Election Updates on YouTube. 6park.com

We made this

6park.com

FORECAST MODEL

Nate Silver 6park.com

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Christopher Groskopf 6park.com

DESIGN

Ryan Best

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr 6park.com

CONTENT EDITING

Micah Cohen

Sarah Frostenson

Christopher Groskopf

Nate Silver 6park.com

ART DIRECTION

Emily Scherer 6park.com

ILLUSTRATION

Fabio Buonocore

Joey Ellis 6park.com

DEVELOPMENT

Ryan Best

Jay Boice

Aaron Bycoffe

Christopher Groskopf

Elena Mejía

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr

Julia Wolfe

Yutong Yuan 6park.com

COPY EDITING

Colleen Barry

Jennifer Mason 6park.com

DATA & RESEARCH

Aaron Bycoffe

Dhrumil Mehta

Mary Radcliffe

Derek Shan 6park.com

Download the data:PollsModel outputs 6park.com

Notice a 🐛?Send us an email. 6park.com

Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology. 6park.com

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