Stubbornly High Rents Prevent Fed From Finishing Inflation Fight


美联储等待住房成本的放缓已有一年半之久，但至今仍未等到。


住房在近年来的通胀中扮演了重要角色，因为住房成本的上升速度非常快。

通胀下降步伐在今年停滞不前，但这并没有破坏美联储最终降息的计划。这是因为美联储预计住房成本的放缓将最终推动通胀率接近2%的目标。 6park.com
Stalled inflation this year hasn’t derailed the Federal Reserve’s plans to eventually cut interest rates. That’s because it expects a slowdown in housing costs to eventually drag inflation close to its 2% target. 6park.com
可问题是：美联储等待住房成本的放缓已有一年半之久，但至今仍未等到。放缓可能只是推迟到来而已。但一些分析师担心，由于房地产市场的势头发生改变，住房成本放缓的情况将不会发生。如果是这样，那将大大削弱降息的理由。 6park.com
The problem: It has been waiting for that slowdown for 1½ years now, and it still hasn’t arrived. The slowdown might simply be delayed. But some analysts worry it’s not going to happen because of changing dynamics in the housing market. If so, that would significantly weaken the case for lower rates. 6park.com
 
住房在近年来的通胀中扮演了重要角色，因为住房成本的上升速度非常快，而且住房类目在通胀中的占比也非常大。占到消费者价格指数(CPI)的三分之一，占到个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)的六分之一左右，PCE是美联储格外看重的通胀指标。 6park.com
Housing has played a large role in the inflation of recent years because its cost rose so much and carries such large weight. It is one-third of the consumer-price index and around one-sixth of the price index of personal-consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. 6park.com
   
从理论上讲，住房通胀情况也是可以预测的。政府统计人员并不使用房价来计算通胀，因为房屋在一定程度上是一种投资。他们使用月租金来统计租户租住房屋或公寓的支付成本，以及房主理论上租用自己名下房屋所需支付的费用。 6park.com
It is also, in theory, predictable. Government statisticians don’t use home prices to calculate inflation because a home is partly an investment. Instead, they use monthly rents to capture what tenants pay to rent a house or apartment, and what a homeowner would in theory pay to rent her own home.



市场租金，即新签租约的租金在三年前激增，反映出新冠疫情引发了人们对更大空间的异常需求、强劲的收入增长以及供出租或购买的房屋存量处于历史低位。根据CoreLogic的数据，2022年单户住宅租金上涨了14%。 6park.com
Market rents—rents on newly signed leases—surged three years ago, reflecting the unusual demand for more space unleashed by the pandemic, strong income growth and historically low inventories of homes for rent or purchase. Single-family home rents rose 14% in 2022, according to CoreLogic.  6park.com
   
但今年2月份的租金同比增长率放缓至3.4%，反映出新公寓的供应导致竞争加剧以及经通胀调整后的收入增长乏力。根据Zillow的数据，公寓租金也出现了类似下降。 6park.com
But year-over-year rent growth slowed to 3.4% in February, reflecting increased competition from new apartment supply and tepid inflation-adjusted income growth. Apartment rents have notched similar declines, according to Zillow. 6park.com
  
由于每年只有少数租约到期，市场租金的变化在通胀中的反映存在滞后。考虑到这一滞后性，美联储官员、华尔街投资者和私营部门经济学家是根据市场租金已经发生的变化，预计住房通胀自2022年底以来将会放缓。 6park.com
Because only a minority of leases turn over each year, changes in market rents are reflected in inflation with a lag. Accounting for that lag, Fed officials, Wall Street investors, and private-sector economists have expected housing inflation to slow since late 2022 based on what has already happened with market rents. 6park.com
   
得克萨斯州的公寓业主Madera Residential的住宅策略部主管Jay Parsons说，“住房通胀率确实从一年前触及的峰值8.2%放缓，但今年3月份仅降至5.6%”，放缓速度比几乎所有人的预期都要慢得多。美国劳工部定于周三公布4月份的通胀报告。 6park.com
Housing inflation has indeed slowed from a peak of 8.2% one year ago—but only to 5.6% in March, “a much slower pace than pretty much anybody anticipated,” said Jay Parsons, head of residential strategy at Madera Residential, a Texas-based apartment owner. The Labor Department is scheduled to report April inflation on Wednesday.

解构通胀组成部分

住房类目有助于解释为什么核心通胀（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）在最近几个月停滞不前，未如预期的那样持续降温。3月份的核心PCE涨幅为2.8%，低于2022年的5.6%，但与去年12月份相比没低多少。 6park.com
Housing helps explain why core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has stalled in recent months, contrary to expectations of a continued cooling. Core PCE inflation was 2.8% in March, down from 5.6% in 2022 but not much lower than in December. 6park.com
   
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)上个月在接受采访时说，房地产“并没有像我们设想的那样发展”。“我仍然认为房地产将会放缓，但如果不放缓，我们将很难”使通胀率回到2%。 6park.com
Housing “has not behaved the way we thought it would,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview last month. “I still think it will, but if it doesn’t, we’re going to have a hard time” bringing inflation back to 2%. 6park.com
  
要了解原因，可将核心通胀分为三个不同的类目来研究：商品、住房和非住房服务。要使通胀率降至2%，美联储并不需要所有这些类别的通胀率都达到2%。 6park.com
To understand why, break core inflation into three different baskets: goods, housing and nonhousing services. To get all the way to 2% inflation, the Fed doesn’t need 2% for all those categories.



在新冠疫情爆发前的十年里，核心通胀率略低于2%，这是由于商品通胀率约为负1%，住房通胀率为2.5%至3.5%，非住房服务通胀率略高于2%。 6park.com
In the decade before the pandemic, core inflation was slightly below 2%, the result of inflation in goods running at about minus 1%, housing at 2.5% to 3.5%, and nonhousing services at slightly above 2%. 6park.com
   
去年的通胀放缓在很大程度上是源于商品价格回到了疫情前的趋势。要使通胀率回归2%，非住房服务通胀率必须从现在的3.5%降至3%以下，住房通胀率必须从5.8%降至3.5%左右。 6park.com
Much of last year’s slowdown in inflation was because goods prices returned to their prepandemic trend. For inflation to get back to 2%, nonhousing services inflation has to drop to less than 3% from 3.5% now, and housing to around 3.5% from 5.8%.  6park.com
  
如果通胀率持续居高不下，美联储官员可能会将利率维持在目前水平，即二十年来的最高水平，直到他们看到有更多经济放缓的具体证据浮现。 6park.com
If inflation stays higher, Fed officials are likely to hold interest rates at their current levels, the highest in two decades, until they see more concrete evidence that the economy is slowing.

“最后的滞后”还是“最后一英里”？

许多经济学家仍然认为，住房通胀反映出始于两年前的新租赁放缓趋势只是时间问题。这可能需要比预期更长的时间，因为受房贷利率高企的影响，更多的租房者正在续租，而不是买房。这或许会延长新签租约带来的租金下降体现在整体通胀中所需的时间。 6park.com
Many economists still think it’s only a matter of time before housing inflation reflects the slowdown in new leases that began two years ago. It might be taking longer than expected because more renters are renewing their leases instead of buying a home, deterred by high mortgage rates. That could lengthen the time it takes for lower rents from newly signed leases to show up in overall inflation.  6park.com
   
“我仍然认为相关措施已经祭出，但遗憾的是，措施显效的时间比我预期的要长，”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)经济学家David Wilcox表示。“我预计，这些低租金最终必将体现在官方价格指数上。” 6park.com
“I still think that check is in the mail, but unfortunately, it’s taking longer for that check to arrive than I anticipated,” said David Wilcox, an economist at Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “I just don’t see an alternative outcome other than those low lease rates eventually manifest themselves in the official price indexes.”



通胀停滞不前加剧了人们的担忧，即美联储可能不得不削弱劳动力市场，冒着衰退的风险，来完成抗通胀的 “最后一英里”。但如果房价等价格反映的是几年前的经济状况，而不是现状，那美联储可能就没有必要这样做。 6park.com
Stalled inflation has fanned fears the Fed might have to weaken the labor market, risking recession, to finish the “last mile” of bringing down inflation. But that might not be necessary if prices, such as for housing, reflect economic conditions from a few years ago rather than now.  6park.com
   
研究公司Inflation Insights的创始人Omair Sharif举例称，汽车保险成本或医院服务价格上涨分别反映出两年前汽车价格和医院薪资的大幅上升。他说：“这事关'最后的滞后'，而不是'最后一英里'。” 6park.com
Higher car-insurance costs or hospital-service prices, for example, reflect big increases in auto prices and hospital wages two years ago, respectively, said Omair Sharif, founder of research firm Inflation Insights. “It’s the ‘last lag’ story, not the ‘last mile’ story,” he said.

需求面的有利因素

一些人怀疑住房在降低通胀方面的作用是否会像预期那样大。租金往往对薪资和收入的敏感度较高，只要工资和收入稳步增长，租金就不会放缓太多。 6park.com
Some doubt whether housing will help as much as anticipated in bringing inflation down. Rents tend to be sensitive to wages and income, and as long as those expand solidly, rents might not slow as much. 6park.com
   
市场租金放缓的一个重要原因是，该行业新增住房供应量达到了创纪录的水平。不过，一些行业高管表示，由于移民增加、就业和工资增长稳健，这些住房供应正在被迅速消化。 6park.com
A key reason market rents have moderated is that the industry is adding a record amount of new apartment supply. Some industry executives say, though, that that supply is being quickly absorbed because of increased immigration and solid job and wage growth. 6park.com
  
Parsons表示：”过去六个月里的超预期表现之一是需求重新加速，尤其是多户住宅的需求。 6park.com
“One of the surprises of the last six months, specific to multifamily, has been the reacceleration of demand,” Parsons said.  6park.com
   
在总部位于休斯顿、拥有5.8万套公寓的Camden Property Trust，租户搬出并买房的比例已降至9%，是该公司30年历史上的最低水平，也低于15%-18%的传统迁出率。 6park.com
At Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based owner of 58,000 apartment homes, the share of tenants moving out to buy homes has fallen to 9%, the lowest in the company’s three-decade history and down from a traditional move-out rate of 15% to 18%. 6park.com
   
可以肯定的是，Camden今年的租金增幅预计将低于1%。去年的租金增幅从2022年创纪录的13%降至3%。 6park.com
To be sure, rent growth at Camden, which fell to 3% last year from a record 13% in 2022, is expected to be less than 1% this year. 6park.com
  
“大多数人原本认为，整个阳光地带(Sunbelt)的租金增长会大幅缩窄，”Camden首席执行官Ric Campo表示。“但现在的情况是，需求比多数人预期的要多得多。” 6park.com
“Most folks believed you would have had a massive falloff in rental growth throughout the Sunbelt,” said Ric Campo, chief executive of Camden. “But what’s happening is there’s been just a whole lot more demand than most people expected.”