He Helped Trump Remake Global Trade. His Work Isn’t Done.


对莱特希泽来说，惩罚不公平贸易已经不够了，他有一个彻底消除贸易逆差的计划。他的意见很重要。他仍然是一名顾问，而且有可能会在特朗普的第二任期内担职。


2018年，美国贸易代表莱特希泽与特朗普在椭圆形办公室。

美国前总统特朗普(Donald Trump)改写了有关贸易政策的共识，程度之大以至拜登(Joe Biden)在上台后大体上予以照搬：把美国国内制造业置于优先地位，不再把贸易协议视为优先事项，并且让世界贸易组织(WTO)靠边站，以及倡导关税措施。 6park.com
Former President Donald Trump rewrote the consensus on trade policy, so much so that President Biden largely copied it: Prioritize domestic manufacturing, deprioritize trade deals, sideline the World Trade Organization and embrace tariffs. 6park.com
   
在重塑前述共识方面，除了特朗普本人，没有人比他的贸易大使莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)贡献更大了。莱特希泽还有未竟的事业。在去年出版的一本书里和最近的一次采访中，莱特希泽描述了一个让全球贸易格局发生更大转变的规划。 6park.com
Other than Trump himself, no one did more to refashion that consensus than his trade ambassador, Robert Lighthizer. He has unfinished business. In a book published last year and in a recent interview, Lighthizer describes an agenda encompassing an even bigger shift in global trade. 6park.com
   
尽管自2016年以来政策已发生了变化，但全球贸易失衡问题依然存在，尤其是美国的逆差和中国的顺差。莱特希泽认为，通过关税或许还有资本管制等其他手段来消除这些贸易不平衡，应该成为美国贸易政策的首要目标。 6park.com
Despite the change in policy since 2016, global-trade imbalances persist, notably the U.S. deficit and China’s surplus. Lighthizer thinks the elimination of these imbalances via tariffs, and perhaps other tools such as capital controls, ought to be the overarching goal of U.S. trade policy. 6park.com
   
莱特希泽在佛罗里达州棕榈滩接受采访时说：“我的观念已经发生了转变，原先我认为我们需要表面的公平贸易，但现在我认识到这是无法实现的，我们真正需要的是平衡的贸易。”他说：“不是在每一年或者是与每个国家实现平衡，而是实现长期的和全球的平衡。”莱特希泽在棕榈滩住在离海湖庄园数英里远的地方。 6park.com
“I have migrated from thinking we need superficial fair trade to realizing that that is unachievable, and what we really need is balanced trade,” Lighthizer said in an interview in Palm Beach, Fla., where he lives a few miles from Mar-a-Lago. “Not balanced every year and with every country, but over time and globally.”



莱特希泽还说：“每个国家的出口都应是为了进口。如果你数十年来长期保持顺差，那么顾名思义，你就是一个保护主义者。你正在实施产业政策来帮助自己，你正在把资源从消费者手中转移到生产者手中，你正在试图......获取其他国家的资产。” 6park.com
He added: “Every country should be exporting in order to import. If you’re running chronic surpluses for decades, then you are by definition a protectionist. You’re engaging in industrial policy to help yourself, you’re transferring resources from your consumers to your producers, you’re trying to … acquire other countries’ assets.” 6park.com
  
对于这些在以往通常被视为以邻为壑的政策，莱特希泽表示，“必须停止。” 6park.com
These used to be called beggar-thy-neighbor policies, he said, “and they have to stop.” 6park.com
  
莱特希泽明确表示，他发表的言论只代表他自己，并不代表特朗普。不过，他的意见很重要。他仍然是一名顾问，而且有可能会在特朗普的第二任期内担职。 6park.com
Lighthizer makes it clear he is speaking only for himself, not for Trump. Nonetheless, his opinions matter. He remains an adviser and his name has been floated for positions in a second Trump administration. 6park.com
  
从20世纪90年代初到2016年，无论是共和党的还是民主党的总统，都在追求更自由的贸易，相信这样做可以让消费者买到更便宜的商品，美国工人生产的产品则可以卖到更大的市场。并且，认为各种贸易协定将加强其他国家与美国的政治和战略联系。 6park.com
From the early 1990s until 2016, presidents of both parties pursued freer trade in the belief that consumers would have access to cheaper goods and U.S. workers could sell to bigger markets. Trade pacts would also strengthen political and strategic ties with the U.S. 6park.com
   
莱特希泽是在总统里根(Ronald Reagan)的执政时代开启他在美国政府的职业生涯，他从没有认同过前述两个有关自由贸易的假设。他在《没有贸易是自由的：改弦更张，对抗中国，帮助美国工人》(No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers)一书中写道：“在英美世界之外，没有人真正相信（自由贸易），也没有人去践行这一点。”他指出，“自20世纪90年代以来达成的各项贸易协议中”，美国决策者的决定实际上是在让全球其他国家来塑造美国的贸易政策。 6park.com
Lighthizer, who got his start serving President Ronald Reagan, never bought into either premise. “No one really believes in [free trade] outside the Anglo-American world, and no one practices it,” he wrote in “No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers.” In deals struck from the 1990s on, “American policy makers effectively decided to let the rest of the world make our trade policy.” 6park.com
   
主流思想已经向莱特希泽的方向发展了。即使是经济学家也承认，一定程度上因贸易造成的美国制造业基础的萎缩带来了附加成本： 失去工厂工作的社区“绝望而死”，对经济和军事安全至关重要的产品依赖中国。 6park.com
Mainstream thought has moved in Lighthizer’s direction. Even economists acknowledge that the shrinking U.S. manufacturing base, partly due to trade, has had collateral costs: “deaths of despair” in communities devastated by lost factory jobs, and dependence on China for products vital to economic and military security.


2019年，美国贸易代表莱特希泽和其他特朗普政府官员在华盛顿与中国代表团举行贸易谈判。

经济学家仍然不同意莱特希泽关于贸易逆差的观点，他们认为逆差是中国这样的高储蓄国家与美国这样的高消费国家进行贸易时的自然结果。 6park.com
Economists still disagree with Lighthizer on deficits, which they see as the natural outcome when a high-saving country like China trades with a high-consuming country like the U.S. 6park.com
    
莱特希泽同意贸易逆差反映储蓄差异的观点，但并不认为贸易逆差是自然产生的，而是其他国家抑制消费和补贴出口的政策造成的。一个例子是： 德国在2000年代初进行的劳工改革外加欧元的采用压低了德国的工资，并奖励了出口商。 6park.com
Lighthizer agrees that deficits reflect savings differentials, but not that they are natural. Rather, they result from other countries’ policies that suppress consumption and subsidize exports. An example: Germany’s early-2000s labor reforms which, along with the adoption of the euro, suppressed German wages and rewarded exporters. 6park.com
    
一个重要的影响是北京大学金融学教授佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)，他撰写了大量文章，论述中国抑制消费的政策如何造成了中国的贸易顺差和其他国家的贸易逆差。随着贸易逆差国家收入的减少，它们必须接受更高的失业率，或者增加债务来替代失去的消费能力。 6park.com
An important influence is Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis, who has written extensively on how China’s suppression of consumption dictates that it run a trade surplus and other countries run deficits. As deficit countries lose incomes, they must either accept higher unemployment or increase debt to replace lost spending power. 6park.com
   
主流经济学家越来越认同中国的顺差是有害的。美国财政部长、经济学家耶伦(Janet Yellen)上个月在北京说：“当全球市场充斥着人为低价的中国产品时，美国公司和其他外国公司的生存能力就会面临疑问。” 6park.com
Mainstream economists increasingly agree China’s surpluses are harmful. “When the global market is flooded by artificially cheap Chinese products, the viability of American and other foreign firms is put into question,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, an economist, said in Beijing last month. 6park.com
   
怎么办？耶伦建议中国扩大退休福利或增加教育支出以促进消费。中国政府礼貌地将她的抱怨斥为保护主义。 6park.com
What to do? Yellen suggested China expand retirement benefits or spend more on education to bolster consumption. Beijing politely dismissed her complaints as protectionism. 6park.com
   
莱特希泽说，顺差是银行体系、劳工体系和产业政策等一系列政策的结果。这就是他支持特朗普提出的加征10%的普遍关税以及对中国加征一项更高关税建议的原因，这么做的目的不是作为就某一项具体贸易壁垒讨价还价的筹码，而是为了消除美国的结构性贸易逆差。 6park.com
Lighthizer said a surplus results from a range of policies such as the banking system, the labor system and industrial policy. That’s why he backs Trump’s proposed universal tariff of 10% plus a higher tariff on China, not as a bargaining chip over a specific trade barrier, but to eliminate the U.S.’s structural deficit.


在实行了几十年的自由贸易政策后，特朗普政府对数千亿美元的中国商品征收了关税。

这将可能涉及对几十年来形成的供应链和消费模式进行一场全面的、破坏性的重新排序，不过，为了减轻调整的难度，关税变化通常会有一个通知期和分阶段实施期。 6park.com
This would potentially involve a sweeping, and disruptive, reordering of supply chains and consumption patterns built over decades, though tariff changes typically come with a notice and phase-in period to ease adjustment. 6park.com
   
许多经济学家怀疑这是否会奏效。他们称，当汇率固定时，关税会减少贸易逆差，就像在金本位制下那样。当汇率具有灵活性时，关税会提振国内的生产、价格和利率，同时减少购买进口商品的外币需求，从而推高美元。美元升值会抵消关税对进口的影响，同时使出口下降。 6park.com
Many economists doubt it would work. They say tariffs reduce trade deficits when exchange rates are fixed, as under the gold standard. When exchange rates are flexible, tariffs drive up the dollar by bolstering domestic production, prices and interest rates, while reducing demand for foreign currency to buy imports. The higher dollar offsets the tariff’s impact on imports and reduces exports. 6park.com
   
莱特希泽称，这种预测是基于有缺陷的模型，他认为推动美元走势的是资本流动及其储备地位，而不是贸易。 6park.com
Lighthizer says such predictions are based on flawed models, arguing the dollar is driven by capital flows and its reserve status, not trade. 6park.com
   
尽管如此，强势美元确实倾向于扩大贸易逆差。一种可能的对策是干预外汇市场，比如1985年的《广场协议》(Plaza Accord)，当时美国及其盟友通过该协议进行干预，目的是让美元贬值。莱特希泽对此表示怀疑：“与1985年相比，如今的全球形势已是今非昔比。”他还称： “据我所知，没有哪位政策顾问正在制定让美元贬值的计划。” 6park.com
Nonetheless, a strong dollar does tend to widen the trade deficit. One possible response is currency intervention, such as the 1985 Plaza Accord, in which the U.S. and its allies intervened to weaken the dollar. Lighthizer is doubtful: “The global situation is very different than in 1985.” He adds: “No policy adviser that I know of is working on a plan to weaken the dollar.” 6park.com
   
理论上看，美联储可以通过压低利率来阻止美元流入。但莱特希泽表示，干预货币政策是有风险的。“美国最终建立了独立的联邦储备体系，这是一项伟大的成就。我最不建议的就是采取任何行动来改变该体系。” 6park.com
The Federal Reserve could in theory deter dollar inflows by holding down interest rates. But Lighthizer said interfering with monetary policy is risky. “It’s a great accomplishment that America eventually got to an independent Federal Reserve system. The last thing I’d suggest is to do anything to change it.” 6park.com
   
还有另外两种可能性。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)提出的建议是，进口商品需要有许可证，该许可证只能对应相应的出口颁发。达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth College)贸易经济学家Doug Irwin称，这将需要政府进行大规模干预，会使大部分贸易化为乌有。 6park.com
There are two other possibilities. Warren Buffett proposes that imports require a certificate issued only with a corresponding export. Doug Irwin, a trade economist at Dartmouth College, said that would require massive government intervention that wipes out most trade. 6park.com
   
另一种可能性是，对任何将贸易顺差所得投资于美国资产（如短期国债）的国家征收 “市场准入费”。“关税会全面平等地惩罚所有国家，”佩蒂斯在接受采访时称。“征收资本税只会对储蓄过多的国家造成打击。” 6park.com
The other is a “market access charge” on any country investing the proceeds of its trade surplus into U.S. assets such as Treasury bills. “Tariffs across the board punish everyone equally,” Pettis said in an interview. “Imposing a capital tax hits only countries with excess savings.” 6park.com
   
这相当于重新实施资本管制，而美国到20世纪80年代基本上已经放弃了这种做法。管制措施可能会破坏美国国债市场的稳定，而且难以执行。 6park.com
This amounts to reimposing capital controls, which the U.S. had largely abandoned by the 1980s. Controls, though, could destabilize the Treasury market, and prove difficult to enforce. 6park.com
   
尽管莱特希泽对这两种想法均持开放态度，但他更倾向于简单灵活而熟悉的关税措施。 6park.com
Though open to both ideas, Lighthizer prefers the simplicity, flexibility and familiarity of tariffs. 6park.com
   
另一个问题是：要真正控制中国的贸易顺差，需要所有贸易伙伴共同行动。但如果美国对所有国家都加征关税，可能会招致报复，而不是合作。盟友可能会认为美国对他们的安全承诺已经减弱，并通过向中国示好来对冲他们的押注。 6park.com
Another problem: Truly reining in China’s surpluses would require all its trading partners to act together. But if the U.S. is hitting everyone with tariffs, it might invite retaliation, rather than cooperation. Allies may conclude the U.S. commitment to their security has diminished and hedge their bets by cozying up to China. 6park.com
   
莱特希泽质疑其他国家会进行报复的观点，他表示，一群志同道合的国家最终有可能组织起一个更好的贸易体系。他还称安全联盟“对美国和世界都非常有利。北约是必不可少的组织。亚洲的联盟非常重要”。 6park.com
Lighthizer doubts others will retaliate, and says it is possible a group of like-minded countries could eventually organize a better trading system. He also calls security alliances “very good for America and very good for the world. NATO is essential. Alliances in Asia are very important.” 6park.com
   
但莱特希泽还认为，美国有关贸易关系决定各国如何选择朋友的想法是错误的。“人们择友的依据是，他们认为谁能帮助保护自己，谁就是朋友，”莱特希泽说。“中国的拉拢口号是‘美国、民主和自由的时代已经过去，我们的时代才是未来之路，加入我们吧’。结交朋友和盟友就是为了拥有世界上最好的经济、最强大的军事和最先进的技术。” 6park.com
But he also thinks the U.S. has been wrong to assume that trade relations determine countries’ choice of friends. “People pick their friends based on who they think can help protect them and who is going to win,” he says. “China’s whole pitch is, ‘The time of America, democracy and freedom has gone, ours is the way of the future, join us.’ The thing that makes friends and allies is to have the best economy, best military and the best technology in the world.”


莱特希泽有可能会在特朗普的第二任期内担职。