The Lopsided Reality of the China-Russia Relationship


由于受到西方制裁的困扰，俄罗斯日益转向中国寻求经济和安全支持。


去年中俄两国元首会晤。

俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)本周将前往北京与中国领导人习近平会面，届时两位领导人将寻求展示他们一贯以来反对由美国主导的国际秩序的统一战线。 6park.com
When Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the two leaders will seek to project their customary united front against the U.S.-led global order.  6park.com
   
然而，在表象之下，中俄两国关系并不平等。 6park.com
Beneath the surface, however, the relationship isn’t one of equals. 6park.com
   
中国为饱受制裁的俄罗斯经济提供了至关重要的支持，向俄罗斯出口电子产品、洗衣机和拖拉机等各种商品。但是，据司尔亚司数据(CEIC Data)提供的信息，中国约占俄罗斯整体贸易的33%，而俄罗斯仅占中国贸易的4%。 6park.com
Beijing has provided a lifeline to the sanctions-stricken Russian economy, supplying it with everything from electronics to washing machines to tractors. But while China accounts for around 33% of Russia’s overall trade, Russia makes up only 4% of China’s trade, according to data provider CEIC Data. 6park.com
   
中国已成为俄罗斯军工生产所需的光学、微电子、无人机发动机和其他材料的重要来源，而近年来俄罗斯对中国的军火出口却急剧下降。与此同时，俄罗斯的石油和天然气在如今失去欧洲市场后，不得不以大幅折扣向中国出售。中俄尚未就一条新的大型天然气管道达成一致，中国还在利用自己手中的筹码压价。 6park.com
China has become a critical source of optics, microelectronics, drone engines and other materials that enable Russia’s weapons production, while Russia’s arms exports to China have fallen precipitously in recent years. Meanwhile, Russia, its oil and gas now shunned in Europe, has had to sell at significant discounts to China. Beijing has yet to agree on a major new gas pipeline, using its leverage to squeeze Russia on price. 6park.com
   
“这是一种战略伙伴关系，双方彼此需要，但这种关系越来越不对称，中国日益占据上风，”柏林的卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心(Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center)主任陈寒士(Alexander Gabuev)说。“在双方关系中中国不仅是更强大的那一方，也比俄罗斯拥有更多选择，俄乌战争更是放大了这一点。” 6park.com
“It’s a strategic partnership where both sides need each other but it’s increasingly asymmetrical in China’s favor,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “China is not only the more powerful partner, but also the one that has many more options than Russia and the war has exacerbated that.” 6park.com
  
陈寒士说：“俄罗斯现在正成为中国的附庸。” 6park.com
“Russia is now locking itself into vassalage to China,” Gabuev said.



尽管俄中关系的失衡不断扩大，但这两个拥核大国之间的联系对西方有着深远影响。比如中俄加强军事合作，在非洲和亚洲与西方的地缘政治竞争加剧。此外，俄中两国石油和天然气贸易的激增正从根本上重塑全球能源版图。 6park.com
Despite the escalating imbalance, the bond between two nuclear-armed powers carries profound implications for the West. Those include intensifying military collaboration and heightened geopolitical rivalry with the West across Africa and Asia. The surge in their oil and gas trade is meanwhile fundamentally reshaping the global energy map. 6park.com
  
西方官员还越来越担心，随着中国帮助俄罗斯恢复战时经济，俄军可能会在消耗战中战胜乌克兰，而欧洲和美国却难以动员本国工业来抗衡俄罗斯的生产。 6park.com
Worries are also growing among Western officials that, as China helps backfill Russia’s war economy, Moscow could win against Ukraine in a war of attrition while Europe and the U.S. struggle to mobilize their own industries to match Russian production. 6park.com
   
在最近与习近平的会晤中，欧洲多位领导人和美国国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)都敦促习近平减少中国对俄罗斯国防工业的支持。华盛顿方面还警告中国政府，美国可能会对处理军民两用产品贸易的中资银行采取行动。分析人士称，有关对中资银行实施制裁的威胁可能已产生一些效果，因为最近的月度数据显示中国对俄罗斯的出口放缓。但这些分析人士提醒称，一些企业会转而使用其他银行和中间商，包括第三国的此类机构，就像以前实施对俄制裁时那样。 6park.com
In recent meetings with Xi, both European leaders and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have pushed the Chinese leader to cut back on his nation’s support for Russia’s defense industry. Washington has also warned Beijing that it could take action against Chinese banks handling trade in so-called dual-use goods that have both civilian and military purposes. The threat of extending sanctions on Chinese banks could already be having some effect as recent monthly data shows Chinese exports to Russia have moderated, analysts say. They caution, however, that as with previous sanctions on Russia, companies would switch to other banks and use middlemen, including in third countries.  6park.com
   
俄罗斯官员驳斥了关于俄方越来越依赖中国的说法。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)在电子邮件回复中表示，关于莫斯科和北京方面之间关系不平等的说法是错误的。他表示，俄罗斯和中国有着特殊的战略伙伴关系，建立在相互信任和尊重的基础上。中国外交部没有回应置评请求。 6park.com
Russian officials have pushed against the notion that their country is becoming dependent on China. In an emailed response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that assertions about inequality between Moscow and Beijing were wrong. “Russia and China have a special strategic partnership … based on mutual trust and respect,” he said. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t respond to a request for comment.


拉达汽车的制造商AvtoVAZ说，中国汽车企业通过提供大幅折扣挤走拉达汽车。

普京定于周四开始为期两天的访华行程，这将是他自今年3月赢得总统选举以来的首次外访，凸显出克里姆林宫对进一步扩大俄中安全与经济关系的重视。克里姆林宫周二表示，普京将访问中国首都北京和哈尔滨市。 6park.com
Putin’s two-day visit set to begin Thursday marks his first foreign trip since winning a rubber-stamp election in March, underscoring the priority that the Kremlin places on further expanding its security and economic ties with China. Putin will visit the capital Beijing and the city of Harbin, the Kremlin said Tuesday.
  6park.com
从历史上看，俄中关系一直处在变化中，既有相互扶持的时期，也曾进行过意识形态竞争，甚至彻底翻脸，但两国长期以来一直视美国为主要挑战者，并试图削弱美国在全球的影响力。 6park.com
Though historically the relations between the two countries have oscillated between periods of mutual support, ideological competition and even outright hostility, Moscow and Beijing have long viewed the U.S. as their main challenger and sought to undermine its global influence. 6park.com
   
2014年俄罗斯从乌克兰手中吞并克里米亚后，克里姆林宫转向了中国，为的是保护国内经济免受西方制裁的冲击。就在俄罗斯坦克于2022年2月开进乌克兰之前不到三周时间，普京和习近平宣布，俄中友谊没有上限，两国的合作没有禁区。 6park.com
After Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the Kremlin pivoted to China in a bid to shield its economy from Western sanctions. Less than three weeks before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, Putin and Xi declared that the friendship between the two countries “has no limits” and that there are no “forbidden areas of cooperation.” 6park.com
   
自那以后，俄中关系不断加深，两国在外交、军事和商业领域进行了一系列会晤。但经常与两国官员交谈的陈寒士说，俄中关系重心偏移的一个迹象是，两国的往来大多一边倒，俄罗斯高级官员和商界领袖前往中国的频率远高于他们在中国的对等官员和业内同行。 6park.com
Ties have only deepened since then, including a flurry of diplomatic, military and business meetings. But in one indication of the shifting weight in the relationship, traffic has been mostly one-sided, with senior Russian officials and business leaders going to China much more frequently than their Chinese counterparts going the other way, said Gabuev, who regularly talks to officials in both countries.  6park.com
  
在军事方面，根据华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)最近发表的一份分析报告，去年3月习近平与普京会晤后，包括俄罗斯武器系统所用电子和机械部件在内的关键军民两用产品贸易激增。战略与国际问题研究中心称，这帮助缓解了俄罗斯国防工业部门的压力，使俄军能够对乌克兰进行旷日持久的消耗战。 6park.com
On the military front, trade in critical dual-use goods, including electronic and mechanical components used in Russian weapons systems, surged after Xi’s meeting with Putin in March last year, according to a recent analysis published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. That has helped ease pressure on Russia’s defense industrial sector, enabling Russia to wage a long war of attrition against Ukraine, CSIS said. 6park.com
  
布林肯上个月表示，就俄罗斯国防工业基础而言，目前的主要支持者是中国。 6park.com
“When it comes to Russia’s defense industrial base, the primary contributor in this moment is China,” Blinken said last month. 6park.com
   
中俄经济关系也得到深化，俄罗斯在其中扮演“小兄弟”的角色。 6park.com
The Sino-Russian economic relationship has also deepened, with Russia playing the junior partner.


俄罗斯金属巨头Norilsk Nickel以制裁影响为由，计划将部分业务转移到中国。

去年中俄双边贸易额达到创纪录的2,400亿美元，比普京设定的目标提前了一年时间，但与中欧和中美贸易相比仍相差甚远。根据中国海关的数据，去年中国与欧盟的贸易额接近8,000亿美元，中美贸易额约6,600亿美元。 6park.com
Bilateral trade reached a record $240 billion last year, a year earlier than a goal set by Putin. That’s dwarfed, however, by China’s trade with the European Union at nearly $800 billion and with the U.S. at around $660 billion, according to Chinese customs data.  6park.com
  
为了应对双边贸易的激增，过去两年来俄罗斯远东海关部门不得不增聘了1,000名工作人员，其中大部分都在与中国接壤的边境地区。 6park.com
To cope with the surge in trade, the Russian Far East customs service had to hire 1,000 additional staff over the past two years, basing most on the border with China.  6park.com
  
“中国几乎可以提供被制裁下的俄罗斯所需要的一切，”德国国际与安全事务研究所(German Institute for International and Security Affairs)研究俄罗斯问题的经济学家Janis Kluge说。“若没有来自中国的进口，俄罗斯经济几乎立即就会陷入困境。这让中国对俄罗斯拥有了很多筹码。” 6park.com
“China has almost everything that Russia lacks because of sanctions,” said Janis Kluge, an economist focusing on Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “Without imports from China, Russia’s economy would almost immediately falter. This gives Beijing a lot of leverage over Moscow.” 6park.com
   
人民币在俄罗斯出口结算中的占比已超过美元，俄罗斯企业越来越多地以人民币借贷，也有家庭选择人民币储蓄。 6park.com
The Chinese yuan has overtaken the U.S. dollar in Russia’s exports, while Russian companies are increasingly borrowing in yuan and households are stashing savings in it.  6park.com
   
俄乌战争爆发后，西方品牌纷纷撤离俄罗斯，中国制造商迅速填补了这一空白。目前，从智能手机到家用电器，中国制造商都在俄罗斯市场占据主导地位。 6park.com
The exodus of Western brands from Russia following the war has created a void swiftly filled by Chinese manufacturers, which now dominate markets from smartphones to household appliances. 6park.com
   
根据俄罗斯数据提供商Avtostat的数据，去年年底俄罗斯新售出的汽车中约有60%为中国制造，这一比例接近2022年的两倍。 6park.com
Around 60% of newly sold cars in Russia were Chinese at the end of last year, almost double their share in 2022, according to Russian data provider Avtostat.  6park.com
  
并非所有人都乐见这一局面。 6park.com
Not everyone is happy. 6park.com
  
俄罗斯拉达(Lada)汽车的制造商AvtoVAZ说，中国汽车企业通过提供大幅折扣挤走拉达汽车。 6park.com
Russia’s AvtoVAZ, the maker of Lada cars, said that Chinese carmakers are crowding out Lada by offering large discounts.  6park.com
  
AvtoVAZ总裁Maxim Sokolov今年3月告诉俄罗斯国际文传电讯社(Interfax)：“我认为许多积极拓展俄罗斯市场的中国品牌正在开始突破。” 6park.com
“Many Chinese brands, carrying out, I would say, aggressive expansion into the Russian market, are beginning to break through,” Maxim Sokolov, president of AvtoVAZ, told the Russian newswire Interfax in March.


2022年夏天，俄罗斯卡车沿着一座横跨阿穆尔河的新桥驶向中国东北部。

不过，对于许多受到西方制裁的俄罗斯企业来说，与中国深化经济合作是必然的。 6park.com
Deeper economic cooperation with China, though, is inevitable for many Russian businesses faced with Western sanctions. 6park.com
   
俄罗斯寡头弗拉基米尔·波塔宁(Vladimir Potanin)控制的金属巨头Norilsk Nickel将把部分铜冶炼业务转移到中国，因为制裁阻碍了该公司获得关键设备，并影响了该公司的付款。波塔宁上个月表示，随着制裁压力加大，该公司对中国的依赖也在增加。 6park.com
Norilsk Nickel, a metals giant controlled by Russian oligarch Vladimir Potanin, will shift a portion of its copper-smelting operations to China after sanctions hindered access to crucial equipment and impacted the company’s payments. Potanin said last month that the company’s dependence on China increases along with sanctions pressure. 6park.com
   
他对国际文传电讯社说：“如果无论如何都无法避免，如果我们无法实现供应多元化，从而不依赖中国市场，那么最好还是更加深入中国市场并进行整合。” 6park.com
“If this cannot be avoided anyway, if we cannot diversify our supplies so as not to depend on the Chinese market, then it is better to enter deeper into it and integrate,” he told Interfax.  6park.com
   
维也纳国际经济研究所(Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)经济学家Vasily Astrov说，莫斯科方面越来越担心俄罗斯对中国的依赖。 6park.com
There are growing concerns in Moscow about Russia’s dependence on China, said Vasily Astrov, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.  6park.com
   
他说：“不过，以俄罗斯目前的情况，日益依赖中国实际上是唯一的选择，否则将面临被孤立，而俄罗斯正在不惜一切代价避免被孤立。” 6park.com
“But, under the current circumstances for Russia, growing dependence on China is effectively the only alternative to isolation, which Russia is seeking to avoid at all costs,” he said.  6park.com
  
在能源领域，中国也占据着大部分优势。 6park.com
In energy, too, China holds most cards.



俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，俄欧之间长达数十年的油气联系被切断，而中国自愿成为买家。中国还为俄罗斯的油气行业提供急需的零部件，而这些零部件过去都来自西方。 6park.com
After the Ukraine invasion severed decades-old oil and gas links between Russia and Europe, China stepped in as a willing buyer. China has also supplied much-needed parts for Russia’s oil-and-gas industry that used to come from the West.  6park.com
   
但这种影响力也意味着中国可以获得折扣。根据阿格斯(Argus Media)的数据，目前俄罗斯输往中国的ESPO混合油比其他输往中国的同类原油每桶便宜约5美元。 6park.com
But that leverage also means that China could command discounts. Russian ESPO blend oil delivered to China currently trades around $5 cheaper a barrel than other comparable crude deliveries to China, according to data from Argus Media. 6park.com
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迄今为止，中国政府一直不愿签署“西伯利亚力量2号”(Power of Siberia 2)天然气管道项目。这是一个将天然气从俄罗斯北部亚马尔地区经蒙古输送到中国的大型项目。自普京入侵乌克兰导致俄罗斯传统的欧洲市场萎缩以来，这条天然气管道对俄罗斯就变得至关重要。 6park.com
Beijing has so far been reluctant to sign up for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. A massive project that would carry gas from the Yamal region in northern Russia to China via Mongolia, the pipeline has become critical for Russia ever since its traditional European market shrunk in the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  6park.com
  
业内观察人士表示，融资和天然气定价等症结仍未解决。中国能从澳大利亚和卡塔尔等其他天然气供应国那里获得供应，可以耐心等待，然后迫使俄罗斯降价。 6park.com
Sticking points such as financing and gas pricing remain unresolved, industry watchers say. China, which can tap other gas suppliers such as Australia and Qatar, can afford to wait it out and then force lower prices from Russia.


中国与俄罗斯现有的天然气联系可能会在一个重大新项目下扩大，但中国尚未同意该计划。

根据卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心非常驻学者、俄罗斯前能源高管Sergey Vakulenko的计算，中国对俄罗斯天然气支付的价格一直低于欧洲。Vakulenko说，即使俄中两国很快就新管道达成一致，但这一过往确立的价格先例，加上莫斯科向中国以外地区出口天然气的选择有限，削弱了俄罗斯在谈判中的议价能力。 6park.com
China has consistently paid lower prices than Europe for Russian gas, according to calculations by Sergey Vakulenko, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former Russian energy executive. Even if Moscow and Beijing agree on the new pipeline soon, this precedent, coupled with Moscow’s limited alternatives for gas export beyond China, has weakened Russia’s bargaining power in negotiations, Vakulenko said.  6park.com
   
专注于俄罗斯问题的经济学家Kluge说，俄罗斯对中国的依赖是一种长期转变。 6park.com
Kluge, the economist focused on Russia, said that Moscow’s dependence on China represents a long-term shift. 6park.com
   
“俄罗斯贸易流向的转变是永久性的，”他说。“对中国的依赖将决定俄罗斯经济未来数年的走向。” 6park.com
“The reorientation of Russian trade flows is permanent,” he said. “Dependence on China will shape Russia’s economic future for years to come.”