| 送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2020-05-05 6:02 已读 547 次 | icemessenger的个人频道 |
乔?约翰逊：人们对未来一年的国际教育市场忧心忡忡，但国际教育的未来仍是光明的——即便以西方化和英语为主的范式可能改变。
在有关移民问题的广泛辩论中，政客们一直未能站在留学生的立场发言。他们如今意识到，留学生在支撑高等学府方面发挥着关键作用，而高等学府对于所有知识经济的表现至关重要。
Politicians have persistently failed to speak up for international students during wider debates about immigration. They are now waking up to the critical role overseas students play in underpinning institutions central to the performance of all knowledge economies. 6park.com6park.com
In the decade before coronavirus struck, the number of international students worldwide had more than doubled to 5m with that number expected to rise to more than 8m by 2025. 6park.com在新型冠状病毒疫情爆发前的10年期间，全球留学生的数量增加了一倍多，达到500万，到2025年，这一数字预计将增至800万以上。6park.com
This major reversal for one of the great boom businesses of the globalised economy will have calamitous consequences for university finances. It will force governments to choose between costly bailouts and disorderly failures that could throw tens of thousands of students on to the streets and into jobs markets already in turmoil. 6park.com对于全球化经济中的这一繁荣行业，这一重大逆转将给大学的财务带来灾难性的后果。这将迫使各国政府在昂贵的救助与无序的失败之间做出选择，后者可能会令成千上万名学生离开校园，进入已经陷入混乱的就业市场。6park.com
The challenge is acute in the UK, where 460,000 international students represent 20 per cent of library ticket-holders, massively cross-subsidise research in Russell Group institutions and contribute ?20bn to service exports. Regulators will need to design a stabilisation fund to prevent the disorderly collapse of scores of vulnerable English universities. Access to it should be subject to strict conditions, including the closure of poor-quality courses. 6park.com这一问题在英国十分严峻，该国46万留学生占图书馆借书证持有者总数的20%，为罗素大学集团(Russell Group)的学府带来大量交叉补贴，并为英国的服务出口贡献200亿英镑。监管机构将需要设计一只稳定基金，以防止几十所脆弱的英格兰大学无序崩溃。获得该基金的救助应该符合严格的条件，包括关闭质量较差的课程。
然而，尽管人们对未来一年的情况忧心忡忡，对国际教育未来的悲观情绪被夸大了——即使未来可能不再符合当前西方化、盎格鲁-撒克逊式、以英语为主要语言的范式。
Yet for all the anxiety over the coming year, pessimism about the future for international education is overblown — even if it may no longer hew to the current westernised, Anglo-Saxon and mainly English-speaking paradigm. 6park.com6park.com
The push factors remain strong. In key developing countries, such as China and India which account for a quarter of overseas students, the shortage of places at prestigious domestic institutions that match social aspirations and academic needs is acute. In Bangladesh, with its largely young population of 170m, and Sri Lanka, there are an estimated five students competing for every available university place. 6park.com推动因素仍然强劲。中国和印度等关键的发展中国家贡献了四分之一的留学生，这些国家十分缺少足以满足社会抱负和学术需求的本土名校。在孟加拉国（人口1.7亿、年轻人占比较高）和斯里兰卡，据估计每一个大学招生名额有5名学生角逐。6park.com
Driven by growth in middle classes in Asia and Africa, the demand for higher education is set to increase from 160m students in 2015 to more than 414m by 2030, according to Unesco. To meet that, the world would have to build four universities, each serving 80,000 students, every week, every year. 6park.com根据联合国教科文组织(UNESCO)的数据，亚洲和非洲中产阶级的壮大，将使需求高等教育的学生从2015年的1.6亿增至2030年的4.14亿以上。为满足这一需求，世界将不得不年复一年地每周开设四所大学，每所大学招收8万名学生。
就在上月，QS对1.1万名潜在留学生进行的一项调查发现，85%的学生仍准备申请，尽管相当一部分人打算将申请推迟一年。
Only last month, a QS survey of 11,000 prospective international students found 85 per cent still open to applying — although a significant proportion intended to defer for a year. 6park.com6park.com
In fact, the disruption from coronavirus could accelerate a new phase of growth. Traditionally, an international education has been a privilege for those who have the money, or know how to obtain financial aid. In future, it will probably reach a wider pool of talent, through two accelerating trends. 6park.com事实上，新冠疫情的扰乱可能会加快一个新的增长阶段。传统上，国际教育是那些有钱或知道如何获得财务援助的人的特权。将来国际教育有望通过两个加速发展的趋势，面向更广泛的人才。6park.com
First, the disruption to travel and incomes from the pandemic will boost the relative appeal of opportunities for intraregional study. Many Asian students increasingly contemplate safer and more affordable options closer to home, in countries such as Malaysia. Developing countries will increasingly seek overseas students themselves, with the global north losing market share to the global south. 6park.com首先，此次大流行病产生的旅行和收入影响，将提升区域内留学机会的相对吸引力。许多亚洲学生日益考虑申请更安全、更负担得起、且离家更近的院校，比如在马来西亚等国。发展中国家本身将日益争取海外留学生，全球北方将被全球南方夺走一部分市场份额。
其次，这场危机将加速网上、远程学习以及结合在线教材与课堂互动的混合式课程。这些课程将会吸引中等收入家庭，因为他们对传统的多年海外留学经历的投资回报率心存疑虑。
Second, the crisis will accelerate online, distance-learning and blended courses that combine online educational materials and classroom interaction. These will interest middle-income families unconvinced by the return on investment from traditional multiyear programmes of overseas study. 6park.com6park.com
The best institutions will turn the crisis into an opportunity. In time, demand for traditional programmes of overseas study will return for the elites who’ve always accessed it. The academic kudos and status benefits of full-on immersive experiences in other countries will continue to draw many students. 6park.com最优秀的高等学府将把这场危机转化为机遇。假以时日，对传统海外学历的需求，将会回归那些一直能够获得这种体验的精英们。在异国获得全面沉浸式体验带来的学术荣誉与地位优势，将继续吸引众多学生。6park.com
But the most exciting growth in international education will come from institutions that use technology to increase access for talented students from income groups for whom it has previously been out of reach. An international education market that is more accessible, less elitist and less carbon-intensive may be one good thing to come out of the corona crunch. 6park.com然而，国际教育领域最振奋人心的增长，将来自那些利用科技增加较低收入群体学生入学机会的机构，以往这些生源是遥不可及的。一个更容易进入、精英化程度较低、碳排放强度较低的国际教育市场，或许是新冠危机带来的一桩好事。
请点这里投票，“赞”助支持！