Markets Had a Terrible First Half of 2022. It Can Get Worse.


2022年已经过去了一半，但市场开始担心，下半年的坏消息比上半年更多。


图为纽约证券交易所的交易员。

2022年已经过去了一半，但市场开始担心，下半年的坏消息会比上半年更多。 6park.com
We’re halfway through the year, but markets are beginning to fear we’re not even halfway through the bad news 2022 has in store. 6park.com
今年前六个月有很多意外：通货膨胀、40年来最严重的债市大跌、史上少有的科技股暴跌，以及加密货币崩盘。 6park.com
The first six months were full of surprises: Inflation. The biggest selloff in bonds in four decades. A plunge in tech stocks rarely matched in history. And the implosion of crypto. 6park.com
几个月来投资者一直忽视的一个迫在眉睫的风险就是经济衰退。但经济会下滑还是相对平稳仍是个未知数。对于经济衰退概率的各种估测相去甚远，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)对客户调查得出的预测是90%，纽约联储(New York Federal Reserve)经济衰退预测模型给出的数字则是4.11%。 6park.com
The looming risk that investors ignored for months is recession. But whether the economy will slump or be just fine remains unknown. Attempts to put a probability on it range from 90% in a Deutsche Bank survey of clients to the spurious precision of 4.11% in the New York Federal Reserve’s recession forecasting model. 6park.com
虽然投资者终于开始关注经济衰退的不确定性，全球其他地方的一些风险也可能打击到美国投资者。日本可能最终允许债券收益率上升，这将吸引日本投资者在海外投资的资金回流。欧洲央行已承诺一项支持意大利的新计划，以前曾有过此类举措，如果这次的努力仍规模太小、时机过晚，欧元区债务危机可能卷土重来，而市场对此并无准备。 6park.com
While investors are at last focused on recession uncertainty, risks elsewhere in the world could hit U.S. investors, too. Japan might finally be forced to relent and allow bond yields to rise, which would suck back cash the country’s investors had poured overseas. In Europe, the central bank has promised a new plan to support Italy—but we’ve seen this show before. If it follows the pattern of too little, too late, we could see a return of the eurozone debt crisis, something markets are not prepared for. 6park.com
无论美国经济出现什么样的结果，都可能成为又一个意外事件。如果经济软着陆，随着最近对经济衰退的恐慌发生逆转，股市应该会有良好表现。如果经济陷入衰退，股市很可能还会出现大跌，因为只有最近几周的跌势似乎与经济衰退风险有关。 6park.com
Almost any economic outcome is likely to prove a fresh surprise. If there’s a soft landing, stocks should do well as the recent recession panic reverses. If there’s a recession, there could easily be a big loss still to come, since only the drop of recent weeks appears to be related to recession risk.



有一点好消息：股价已经出现了大幅下跌，更接近可能最终会触底的水平了。标普500指数上半年的跌幅创1970年经济衰退时下跌21%以来最大跌幅。即使包含票息收入在内，长期美国国债也已累计下跌10%，创1980年以来最大六个月跌幅，当时沃尔克(Paul Volcker)领导的美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）实施的政策推动美国经济陷入衰退。 6park.com
There’s one sliver of good news: Prices are already down a lot, which brings them closer to wherever they will eventually bottom out. The S&P 500 has fallen by the most in the first half of a year since the 21% loss in 1970, when the economy was in recession. Long-dated Treasurys lost 10% even including coupon payments, the biggest six-month loss since Paul Volcker’s Fed forced the economy into recession in 1980. 6park.com
没有可靠的方法可以计算出市场对美联储这次将拖累美国经济陷入衰退的预期处在什么水平。 6park.com
There’s no sure way to work out what probability the market is putting on the Fed driving the economy into recession this time. 6park.com
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou表示，通过价格走势计算概率的最简单方法是，将市场跌幅与以前衰退时股价从最高点跌到最低点的平均幅度进行比较。标普500指数迄今的累计跌幅略高于20%，而美国过去11次经济衰退期间的平均跌幅为26%，这表明市场押注美国经济发生衰退的可能性接近80%。 6park.com
J.P. Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou says the simplest way to extract probabilities from the price moves is to compare price falls with the average peak-to-trough fall of past recessions. Since the S&P 500 is down a bit over 20% and the average fall in the last 11 recessions was 26%, that suggests an almost 80% chance of recession is priced. 6park.com
但今年的大跌在很大程度上并不是源于经济衰退风险。要明白这一点，我们需要区分美联储政策对股票和债券价格造成的直接和间接影响。 6park.com
Yet, much of this year’s selloff wasn’t about recession risk. To see this we need to distinguish the direct and indirect effects the Fed has on prices of stocks and bonds. 6park.com
直接影响是推高债券收益率，并压低了那些要到很远以后才可能盈利的股票的估值，这指的是大型科技股等高估值股票。这就是6月份之前市场上的主导情况，即债券收益率飙升，成长型股票下跌，而估值便宜的“价值股”基本上表现良好。若分析时剔除科技板块，从而剥离掉大部分这种影响，那么截至6月7日，股市里对经济敏感的周期性板块的表现仅略逊于防御类板块。 6park.com
The direct effect is to push up bond yields and push down valuations of stocks with profits far in the future, which means those with high valuations such as Big Tech. This is what dominated until June, with bond yields soaring and growth stocks crashing, while cheap “value” stocks were basically fine. Exclude the technology sector to strip out the bulk of this effect and economically-sensitive cyclical sectors of the stock market had only slightly underperformed defensives by June 7.



但在那之后，一切都变了。投资者意识到美联储政策的间接影响，即削弱经济。这种认识对资产价格造成了几乎截然相反的影响。经济疲软意味着通胀率将低于经济活跃时的水平，让债券收益率走低有了理由。这还打击了企业盈利，特别是周期性公司的利润，这往往会对估值相对较低的股票造成比成长型股票更多的伤害。 6park.com
Then it all changed. Investors woke up to the indirect effect of the Fed, which is to weaken the economy. This has almost the opposite effect on asset prices. A weaker economy means less inflation than otherwise, justifying lower bond yields. It also hits earnings, particularly for cyclical companies, which tends to hurt stocks with relatively low valuations more than growth stocks. 6park.com
自6月7日以来，估值低廉的股票受到打击，周期性类股、尤其是石油和采矿板块，出现了暴跌。在过去两周里，美国国债市场也反映出经济衰退担忧，投资者押注美联储明年将不得不大力降息。10年期美国国债下跌了近0.5个百分点，这是自第一次新冠疫情相关封锁以来同期最大跌幅。与此同时，华尔街分析师正在竞相下调企业利润预期，之前他们忽视了经济衰退风险，实际上在今年前五个月里还上调了企业盈利预期。 6park.com
Since June 7 cheap stocks have been hammered and cyclical sectors—especially oil stocks and miners—have plummeted. In the past two weeks recession fears showed up in Treasurys too, as investors bet that the Fed will have to cut rates aggressively next year. The drop of almost half a percentage point in the 10-year Treasury is the most over such a period since the first pandemic lockdown. Wall Street analysts have also been racing to cut their earnings forecasts, after ignoring recession risks and actually upgrading earnings predictions in the first five months of the year. 6park.com
现在，市场已经明白了前景阴云密布，所以不太会被突如其来的“阵雨”所困扰。但如果深度衰退的风殃及企业利润，投资者还是会蒙受损失。 6park.com
The markets now understand the outlook is clouded, so will be less bothered by a sudden shower. But investors will still get drenched if the storm of a deep recession washes away earnings. 6park.com
很显然，有一些风险可能会从国外输入美国。对冲基金正在大举押注日本央行将放弃其债券收益率曲线控制政策，该政策使得日本免受全球货币政策收紧的影响，并导致了日圆走弱。如果对冲基金的押注是正确的——而且目前没什么因素让日本央行不得不加息、更不用说很快加息了——那么日本债券收益率将会跃升，日圆的极度弱势将突然逆转，从而将搅动全球市场。 6park.com
There are clear risks that could be imported from abroad. Hedge funds are betting big that the Bank of Japan will abandon its bond yield controls, which have shielded it from tightening global monetary policy and crushed the yen. If the hedge funds are right—and there’s nothing forcing the BoJ to act, let alone soon—Japanese bond yields would leap and the yen’s extreme weakness go into sudden reverse, roiling markets globally. 6park.com
国内收益率更高以及汇兑因素将带来损失的前景，将促使日本小型投资者大军将资金汇回国内，从而推动日圆上涨、其他各地的价格水平下跌，并为美国国债收益率再添上涨压力。 6park.com
Better yields at home, as well as the prospect of losses on the currency, would push Japan’s army of small investors to repatriate their money, pushing the yen up and prices everywhere else down – and adding more upward pressure to Treasury yields. 6park.com
来自欧洲的风险仍是老一套：政治。欧洲央行提前采取行动，以避免意大利政府发生融资危机。现在欧洲央行面临艰巨任务，该行要说服尊崇节俭的北欧国家接受承销意大利债券的协议，同时不对意大利施加不可接受的条件。如果拿不出足够的资金，那么今年秋季意大利和欧元区可能会再次出现严重问题。 6park.com
The risk from Europe is familiar: politics. The European Central Bank acted early to head off a crisis in Italy’s government financing. It now has the difficult job of persuading the frugal north to accept a deal underwriting the country’s bonds, without imposing unacceptable conditions on Italy. If it fails to come up with enough money, Italy and the eurozone could be in serious trouble again by the autumn. 6park.com
笔者仍然抱有期望，认为经济衰退将是温和的，而且到明年才可能发生，也许还可以完全避免。但经济数据情况不佳，而且利率上升还没有开始对普通家庭产生影响。危险很大，而市场仍未做好充分准备。 6park.com
I remain hopeful that recession will be mild, not hit until next year, and perhaps be avoided altogether. But the economic data are going the wrong way, and higher interest rates haven’t even begun to bite on ordinary households yet. The dangers are big, and the markets are still not fully prepared.