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斯特金:只有独立才能给苏格兰带来繁荣
送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2022-11-20 2:47 已读 1167 次  

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Nicola Sturgeon: Scotland can no longer rely on Westminster’s economic stewardship



Only independence and EU membership will secure our future prosperity. 6park.com

只有独立和获得欧盟成员国身份,才能使苏格兰从低增长、高不平等的英国经济模式转向更美好的未来。




During the Scottish referendum campaign in 2014, people in Scotland were told that if we voted No to independence, we could rely on the stability of Westminster’s stewardship of the economy. 6park.com

在2014年苏格兰独立公投运动期间,苏格兰人民被告知,如果我们对独立投下反对票,我们就可以依赖于英国议会掌舵经济所带来的稳定性。 6park.com

6park.com

That message of stability, founded as it was on the UK’s supposed economic strength (of which EU membership was a key part) dominated the messaging of anti-independence politicians. However, even at the time, the UK was already demonstrating what has become its defining economic characteristics — low growth, low productivity and deep inequality. 6park.com

这条关于稳定性的信息主导了反独立政治人士的宣传,其基础似乎是英国所谓的经济力量(其中欧盟成员国身份是关键部分)。然而,即使在那时,英国已经显示出其决定性的经济特点已经变成了什么——低增长,低生产率,以及深刻的不平等。 6park.com

6park.com

As a result of the disastrous decision to leave the EU — against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of people in Scotland — this inherently weak and unstable economic model seems now to be hardwired into the UK’s future. 6park.com

离开欧盟的灾难性决定——违背苏格兰绝大多数人民的愿望——的结果是,这个本质上疲弱而不稳定的经济模式现在似乎牢牢嵌进了英国的未来。 6park.com

6park.com

The Bank of England is warning that the UK is about to enter the longest recession since the 1930s, and its analysis clearly shows that specific “UK factors” are making things worse. One of those is undoubtedly Brexit. Yet, despite growing evidence of the harm it is doing, none of the main UK parties is calling for its reversal. Indeed, the Labour leader Keir Starmer is now at one with the UK government on the issue. Labour has become a pro-Brexit party with a pro-Brexit leader. 6park.com

英国央行(Bank of England)警告称,英国将进入1930年代以来的最长衰退,其分析清晰表明一些特定的“英国因素”让一切变得更糟糕。其中之一无疑就是脱欧。然而,尽管脱欧正在造成损害的证据越来越多,但没有任何英国主要政党呼吁扭转它。事实上,工党领袖基尔•斯塔默(Keir Starmer)在这一问题上与英国政府保持一致。工党已成为亲脱欧党魁领导的亲脱欧政党。
6park.com

That merely confirms what has now been apparent for some time: the only way for Scotland to regain EU membership and the economic benefits it brings is as an independent country. Since 2016, support for EU membership in Scotland has climbed higher still. Indeed it seems to be on the rise now in England too. Labour’s conspiracy of silence on Brexit is therefore not only deeply damaging economically, but by the time the next general election comes round may prove to be a profound strategic mistake. 6park.com

这仅仅确定了一个一段时间以来已经很明显的事实:苏格兰重获欧盟成员国身份及其带来的经济益处的唯一方式就是成为独立国家。自2016年以来,苏格兰人对欧盟成员国身份的支持与日俱增。事实上,似乎英格兰人对此的支持度也在上升。因此,工党密谋在脱欧问题上保持沉默,不仅对经济造成深刻伤害,而且到下次大选来临时可能会被证明是严重的战略错误。 6park.com

6park.com

It is beneath these darkening Brexit clouds that the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will this week deliver his Autumn Statement. Given that he has already warned of decisions of “eye-watering difficulty”, we can be sure that big cuts to public spending, as well as significant tax rises, are on the way. There has been much talk of the need to fill a so-called “black hole” in the UK’s public finances of perhaps £40bn to £55bn — figures that have been made worse by wrong-headed political decisions and are based on uncertain forecasts of how to bring down debt as a share of gross domestic product. 6park.com

在日益暗沉的脱欧阴云之下,英国财政大臣杰里米•亨特(Jeremy Hunt)将在本周发布他的秋季财政报告(Autumn Statement)。考虑到他已经就“令人心痛的艰难”决定发出警告,我们可以肯定,预算中包含大幅削减公共支出和重大增税措施。人们已经大量讨论了有必要填补英国公共财政的所谓“黑洞”,这可能达到400亿至550亿英镑——该数字因为错误的政治决定而恶化,而且是基于关于如何降低债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比的不确定预测。 6park.com

6park.com

It is also vital to remember that any further cuts will come as public services are still recovering from the last period of austerity and from Covid-19, and as they are struggling with the impact of inflation. The budget of the Scottish government, for example, is worth £1.7bn less than when it was set in December as a result of inflation, yet we have not received a single additional penny from the UK government. 6park.com

同样重要的是要记住,任何进一步的公共支出削减都将发生在公共服务仍在从上一段紧缩时期和新冠疫情中恢复之际,同时它们正在努力应对通胀的影响。例如,受通胀影响,苏格兰政府的预算比去年12月设定时在价值上减少了17亿英镑,但我们没有从英国政府获得一便士的额外拨款。 6park.com

6park.com

Fiscal sustainability is, of course, essential, but hammering public services with a new wave of austerity is likely to prolong the recession and make long-term sustainability harder to achieve. When the millstone of Brexit and the home secretary’s enthusiasm for reducing immigration are added to the mix, any prospects for growth look even bleaker. 6park.com

财政可持续性当然是至关重要的,但用新一轮紧缩打击公共服务可能会延长衰退,使长期可持续性更难实现。再加上英国脱欧造成的负担和内政大臣对减少移民的热情,任何经济增长前景都显得更加黯淡。 6park.com

6park.com

It is against this backdrop that the Scottish government is renewing its economic case for independence. We have set out how an independent Scotland could thrive under a new economic model, based on our abundant renewable energy resources, a new social partnership approach, greater workplace rights, a migration policy tailored to our needs and becoming a member of the EU in our own right, inside a huge single market which, by population, is seven times the size of the UK. 6park.com

正是在这种背景下,苏格兰政府重新提出了独立的经济理由。我们已经制定了一个独立的苏格兰如何在新的经济模式下繁荣发展的计划,这种模式基于我们丰富的可再生能源资源、新的社会伙伴关系方式、更大的工作场所权利、根据我们的需求量身定制的移民政策,以及凭借自身的能力成为欧盟的一员,置身一个人口规模是英国7倍的庞大单一市场。 6park.com

6park.com

We’ve set out plans for a £20bn investment fund, using borrowing powers and the oil revenues that will remain while we make the transition away from fossil fuels, to kick-start growth in a newly independent country. 6park.com

我们已经制定了设立一个200亿英镑投资基金的计划,利用借款能力和在我们淘汰化石燃料的转型过程中仍会有的石油收入,来刺激这个新独立国家的经济增长。 6park.com

6park.com

There are no guarantees of success. But it is instructive that independent European countries comparable to Scotland such as the Nordics, Ireland, Austria and Switzerland have higher national incomes per head and lower inequality than the UK. 6park.com

没有必然成功的保证。但具有指导意义的是,与苏格兰规模相当的北欧国家、爱尔兰、奥地利和瑞士等独立欧洲国家,人均国民收入都高于英国,不平等程度都低于英国。 6park.com

6park.com

There will of course be significant transition issues for us to confront and work through and we have set out proposals that will enable a move from the low-growth, high-inequality UK economic model to a better independent future. 6park.com

当然,我们将面临并解决重大的过渡问题,我们已经提出了一些建议,将能够使苏格兰从低增长、高不平等的英国经济模式转向更美好的独立未来。 6park.com

6park.com

We don’t know the detail of what is to be in the chancellor’s statement on Thursday, but one thing is already clear — to build a more prosperous and fairer future, Scottish independence is not only desirable, it is now essential. 6park.com

我们不知道财政大臣周四报告的细节会是什么样,但有一件事已经很清楚——为了建设一个更繁荣、更公平的未来,苏格兰独立不仅令人向往,如今更是势在必行。


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