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缺枪少炮的俄罗斯还能在乌克兰撑多久?
送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2022-11-23 2:34 已读 1242 次  

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Russia’s Munitions Shortages Raise Questions Over How Long It Can Continue Ukraine War



自2月份俄罗斯入侵乌克兰开始以来,俄乌双方都遭受了严重的人员和物资损失,但相较于基辅,莫斯科方面更依赖自己不断萎缩的经济来补充供应。



图为基辅被摧毁的俄罗斯军事设备。由于莫斯科针对乌克兰的能源基础设施,基辅经常停电。


俄罗斯消耗设备、弹药和武器的速度之快,让人怀疑该国还能在多长时间内、以多高的效率继续乌克兰之战。 6park.com

Russia has been burning through equipment, ammunition and weaponry at rates that have raised questions about how effectively and for how long it can continue to prosecute its war against Ukraine. 6park.com


自2月份俄罗斯入侵乌克兰开始以来,俄乌双方都遭受了严重的人员和物资损失,但相较于基辅,莫斯科方面更依赖自己不断萎缩的经济来补充供应。乌克兰经济受到的破坏比俄罗斯更严重,但好在有美国及其盟友这个更强大的支持者,这些国家正在提供数以十亿美元计的军事和经济援助。 6park.com

Both sides have suffered heavy losses of men and materiel since the invasion began in February, but Moscow—which has been yielding territory back to Ukraine after making gains early in the war—is more dependent on its own shrinking economy to replenish supplies than Kyiv is. Ukraine’s economy has been more devastated than Russia’s, but has more powerful backers in the U.S. and its allies, which are providing billions of dollars of military and economic aid. 6park.com


跨党派智库战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)战略主管Eliot Cohen在谈到俄罗斯人时说:“他们什么都缺。”Cohen说,由于腐败、管理不善和维护不力,俄罗斯从库存中取出的武器有很大一部分已经失灵或出现损坏。战略与国际问题研究中心总部位于华盛顿。 6park.com

“They are running low on everything,” Eliot Cohen, chair in strategy at the Washington, D.C.-based bipartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the Russians. A significant proportion of the Russian arsenal brought out of storage has deteriorated because of corruption, mismanagement and poor maintenance, he said. 6park.com


西方和乌克兰官员以及军事分析人士表示,有迹象表明,俄罗斯某些关键武器系统的库存正消耗至很低水平,比如精确制导导弹。俄罗斯不能把所有库存的精确制导导弹(其中一些还用于携带核弹头)都拿出来用,必须保留一些,以便在其他场景下使用,包括威慑北约部队。 6park.com

Western and Ukrainian officials and military analysts say there have been indications that Russian stocks of certain critical weapons systems, including precision missiles, are running low. Moscow can’t use its entire inventory of precision missiles—some of which are also used to carry nuclear warheads—because it has to hold some back for use in case of other eventualities, including to deter NATO forces. 6park.com


俄罗斯仍不时发射导弹攻击乌克兰的地面目标,目前的打击重点是能源和供暖基础设施,意在瓦解乌克兰民众的士气,如乌克兰政府所称的在11月15日俄罗斯就发射了近100枚导弹。 6park.com

Russia continues its occasional barrages of missiles to attack ground targets in Ukraine—now focused on energy and heating infrastructure aimed at sapping the morale of Ukrainian citizens—as happened on Nov. 15 when almost 100 missiles were fired, according to the Ukrainian government. 6park.com

6park.com

但这些导弹的使用频率已经从战争头几个月的平均每天发射二十多枚大幅下降。乌克兰空军司令部发言人Yuriy Ihnat上周称,俄罗斯在整个10月只发射了15枚卡利布(Kalibr)巡航导弹。 6park.com

But the rate at which these missiles are used has dropped significantly from an average of two dozen daily launches in the first months of the war. Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for Ukraine’s air force command, said last week that just 15 Kalibr cruise missiles were launched in the entire month of October.



图为基辅一座建筑被导弹碎片击中。莫斯科导弹袭击的频率已经下降,这表明其供应正在减少。


一个变数是俄罗斯从伊朗进口武器装备会带来怎样的重大影响。作为全球最大的军事装备生产国之一,俄罗斯却被迫转向外部供应商购买军火,这一事实再次表明俄罗斯的军事工业基地正难以为该国部队提供补给。按照美国的说法,朝鲜也已经开始向俄罗斯输送炮弹。 6park.com

One wild card is the significance of Russian imports of weaponry from Iran. The fact that Moscow, one of the world’s largest producers of military equipment, has been forced to turn to outside suppliers is another indication that the Russian military-industrial base is struggling to resupply the country’s forces. North Korea has also begun shipping artillery shells to Russia, according to the U.S. 6park.com


伊朗的Shahed-136自杀式无人机于9月中旬开始出现在战场上,到目前为止已经对战争产生了重大影响。虽然这些廉价武器的很大一部分被击落,但乌克兰往往必须使用昂贵且稀缺的防空导弹才能做到这一点,这就增加了乌克兰在获得后续防空补给方面的挑战。乌克兰官员还表示,伊朗已同意向莫斯科提供两种弹道导弹,射程分别为180英里(约290公里)和430英里(约692公里)。 6park.com

Iran’s Shahed-136 suicide drones, which began appearing on the battlefield in mid-September, have had a significant impact on the campaign so far. While a large proportion of these cheap weapons is shot down, Ukraine often must use expensive and scarce air-defense missiles to do so—increasing the challenges Kyiv faces in securing resupplies for its air defenses. Ukrainian officials also say Tehran has agreed to supply two types of ballistic missiles—with ranges of 180 miles and 430 miles—to Moscow. 6park.com

6park.com

分析师和官员说,另一个可能预示俄罗斯武器短缺的迹象是,俄罗斯导弹越来越多地被用于设计意图以外的目的。用于打击大型金属物体的反舰导弹被用来攻击陆地目标,S-300防空导弹也是如此,乌克兰官员说,俄罗斯部队仍有大量这种导弹。这两种导弹在许多对地攻击中都打不准,并造成了大量的平民伤亡。 6park.com

In what analysts and officials say is another possible indication of shortages, Russian missiles are increasingly used for purposes for which they aren’t designed. Antiship missiles, built to hit large metal objects, are being used to attack land targets, as are S-300 air-defense missiles, one weapon that Ukrainian officials say remains in plentiful supply for Moscow’s forces. Both are inaccurate in many ground-attack roles and have caused significant civilian casualties. 6park.com


伦敦防务与安全智库皇家三军研究所(Royal United Services Institute)的军事分析师利用乌克兰官员的估算指出,俄罗斯的S-300导弹库存可能只用了10%。但他们说,俄军可能已经消耗了一半的“伊斯坎德尔”(Iskander)弹道导弹库存,战前的库存估计有900枚,俄罗斯剩余的“口径”(Kalibr)巡航导弹库存非常少。 6park.com

Military analysts from the Royal United Services Institute, a London defense-and-security think tank, suggest—using estimates from Ukrainian officials—that Russia may have used only 10% of its inventories of S-300s. But they say that it has probably expended half of its stock of Iskander ballistic missiles, estimated at 900 before the war, and that its remaining stores of Kalibr cruise missiles are running very low. 6park.com


俄罗斯还使用了大量廉价的低精度炮弹,持续几个月每天发射成千上万的炮弹。分析人士说,现在炮击的频次已经明显减少,也许说明即使是这些弹药可能也需要配给,不过炮击频次减少在一定程度上可能也因为战争性质发生了变化。 6park.com

Russia has also used vast amounts of cheap low-precision ammunition, firing many thousands of artillery shells a day over months. The rate of fire has now dropped significantly, analysts say, possibly suggesting that even these munitions might need to be rationed—though some of the drop may also be explained by a shift in the nature of the battle.



乌克兰一辆被摧毁的坦克。已证实的乌方损失要比俄罗斯方面小得多。


双方的兵力损失也都很严重。美国参谋长联席会议主席、陆军上将Mark Milley估计,俄军伤亡超过10万人,乌军伤亡人数可能不相上下。俄军的伤亡可能将包括许多经验更丰富的军人,他们将被资历更浅的预备役军人所取代。 6park.com

Losses of soldiers on both sides have also been heavy. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs, estimated that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded, and probably about the same number of Ukrainian troops. Many of the Russian casualties will likely include many of the military’s more experienced troops, who are being replaced by less-qualified reservists. 6park.com


乌克兰声称已经摧毁逾2,800辆俄罗斯坦克以及逾5,700辆装甲车。通过Oryx网站照片证据核实的损失(可能大幅低估了实际损失),包括逾1,500辆坦克被摧毁、缴获或遗弃,另外还有2,700多辆各类型装甲车。Oryx是一个公开来源情报追踪机构,它还认定有49架俄罗斯攻击直升机被毁或受损。 6park.com

Ukraine claims it has destroyed more than 2,800 Russian tanks and more than 5,700 armored personnel vehicles. Losses verified through photographic evidence by the Oryx website, which likely significantly underestimates actual losses, confirms more than 1,500 tanks destroyed, captured or abandoned and more than 2,700 armored vehicles of various types. Oryx, an open-source intelligence tracker, has also identified 49 Russian attack helicopters destroyed or damaged. 6park.com


已证实的乌方损失要小得多。Oryx的数据显示,乌方损失370辆坦克和不到800辆装甲车,而乌方军队和武器储备规模一开始就比俄罗斯小得多。 6park.com

Confirmed Ukrainian losses have been much smaller—370 tanks and fewer than 800 armored vehicles, according to Oryx—but its military and its stockpiles were much smaller than Russia’s to start with. 6park.com


俄军在战场上遭遇挫折后,俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)命令国内工业界加强军工生产。今年10月,他成立了一个新的政府协调委员会,以帮助加快物资生产,称俄罗斯需要更快速地解决有关支持对乌特别军事行动的问题,并对抗西方的制裁。 6park.com

Following the battlefield setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian industry to ramp up military production. In October, he created a new government coordination council to help speed up the production of these supplies, saying that Russia needed to more rapidly resolve issues associated with providing support for the military operation and to counter Western sanctions. 6park.com


但俄罗斯经济正在萎缩,劳动力大军也在萎缩。 6park.com

However, the Russian economy is contracting and its workforce is shrinking. 6park.com


俄罗斯经济发展部的数据显示,9月份经济同比萎缩了5%。俄罗斯央行的最新预测表明,该国今年将出现所有大型经济体中最严重的衰退,国内生产总值将下降3%至3.5%。 6park.com

Data from Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development showed that the economy contracted by 5% year on year in September. The latest forecasts from Russia’s central bank predicted that the country is set for the deepest recession of any large economy this year and a drop in gross domestic product of between 3% and 3.5%. 6park.com


普京于9月21日宣布进行部分动员,征召30万名预备役军人,这一举动开始对劳动力市场产生明显影响。动员令数十万工作年龄的男子逃离该国,加剧了2月24日入侵乌克兰后立即出现的人员短缺问题。 6park.com

Mr. Putin’s call-up—launched Sept. 21—of 300,000 reservists is beginning to have a noticeable effect on the labor market. The mobilization sent hundreds of thousands of working-age men fleeing the country, exacerbating an already existing shortage of personnel that followed immediately after the Feb. 24 invasion. 6park.com


根据俄罗斯联邦国家统计局公布的数据,9月份,劳动力规模缩减了60万人,较去年同月减少70万人,降幅1%。该国经济学家说,在统计10月份的数字时,全部影响可能要大得多。 6park.com

In September, the labor force shrank by 600,000 people and was 700,000 lower than a year earlier, a fall of 1%, according to data published by Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service. Local economists said the full effect is likely to be far more significant when October numbers are tallied. 6park.com


“动员影响到数十万活跃在经济领域的俄罗斯人,不能不影响经济,”经济学研究员兼分析师、莫斯科专家协会National Expert成员Alexei Klimovskii称。“当然,这种影响是负面的,因为经济链正在崩溃,各行业的宝贵专家正在离开。” 6park.com

“Mobilization affects hundreds of thousands of economically active Russians and cannot but affect the economy,” said Alexei Klimovskii, an economics researcher and analyst and a member of National Expert, an association of experts in Moscow. “Of course, this influence is negative, because economic chains are collapsing and valuable specialists in various industries are leaving,” he said. 6park.com


西方官员还表示,限制俄罗斯获得微芯片和其他高科技设备的制裁举措正制约俄罗斯增产精密导弹的能力,尽管这些制裁并非没有漏洞可钻。在本月的一份报告中,RUSI分析师援引了对一名乌克兰官员的采访,估计俄罗斯先进的伊斯坎德尔9M723弹道导弹的月产能仅为6枚。 6park.com

Western officials also say sanctions limiting Russia’s access to microchips and other high-tech equipment are constraining Russia’s ability to increase production of precision missiles, even though the sanctions aren’t watertight. In a report this month, RUSI analysts, citing an interview with a Ukrainian official, estimated that Russia’s monthly production capacity of advanced Iskander 9M723 ballistic missiles was just six. 6park.com


西方官员称,俄罗斯在试图增加军火生产方面可能面临很大困难。 6park.com

Western officials said Russian industry is likely facing serious bottlenecks as it tries to increase military production. 6park.com


普京争辩称俄罗斯已经很好地适应了制裁,西方想要压垮俄罗斯经济的行动已经失败。他上个月说:“我们的经济确实已经变得适应性更强且更加灵活。” 6park.com

Mr. Putin contends Russia has adapted well to the sanctions, and that the West has failed in its objective to crush his country’s economy. “Our economy has indeed become much more adaptive and flexible,” he said last month. 6park.com


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