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Cult of the star business leader is dangerous 在本轮周期中，我们看到的是特大号梦想推销员的垮台，是他们个人先崩溃带垮了企业。FTX破产就是最新的例子。
FTX’s collapse shows we must stop making deities out of founders and chief executives. 6park.com
人们的注意力都放在萨姆•班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried，SBF)和眼下的加密货币崩盘上，让人觉得大家好像没有抓住大局。 6park.com
With all the attention on Sam Bankman-Fried and the crypto collapse du jour, it feels as if the crowd is missing the big picture. 6park.com
If we step back and look at the major collapses of organisations over the past five years, they are different from other meltdowns. When the dot.com and housing market bubbles burst, what we witnessed was the failure of institutions that then resulted in a subsequent crisis of confidence in their leaders. 6park.com如果我们抽离出来，看看过去5年来发生的重大破产事件，我们会发现这些事件与其他破产事件有所不同。互联网泡沫和房地产泡沫破裂时，我们目睹的是企业倒闭，继而引发对企业领导人的信心危机。 6park.com 6park.comEnron’s demise took down Ken Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, while WorldCom’s failure upended Bernie Ebbers. In 2008, banking failures led to the ousting of bank chief executives. We witnessed a “Lehman moment” rather than a “Fuld finale”. 6park.com安然(Enron)破产，肯•雷(Ken Lay)和杰弗里•斯基林(Jeffrey Skilling)跟着倒霉；世通(WorldCom)倒闭后，伯尼•埃博斯(Bernie Ebbers)也栽了。2008年多家银行破产，导致大批银行首席执行官下台。我们见证的是“雷曼时刻”，而不是“富尔德的大结局”。 6park.com 6park.comBut in this cycle, what we are seeing is the downfall of supersized dream salesmen — a collection of Harold Hills right out of the 1960s film The Music Man — whose personal collapses are taking institutions down with them. (Think Adam Neumann, Markus Braun, Trevor Milton, Lex Greensill, Bill Hwang, Do Kwon, and now Bankman-Fried.) 6park.com但在本轮周期中，我们看到的是特大号梦想推销员的垮台——他们活像上世纪60年代电影《欢乐音乐妙无穷》(The Music Man)中的哈罗德•希尔斯(Harold Hills)——是他们个人先崩溃带垮了企业。（想想亚当•诺依曼(Adam Neumann)、马库斯•布劳恩(Markus Braun)、特雷弗•米尔顿(Trevor Milton)、莱克斯•格林希尔(Lex Greensill)、Bill Hwang、Do Kwon以及现在的班克曼-弗里德。） 6park.com 6park.comIn every case, attention turned first to the outlandish promises and audacious oversteps of a single individual and then to the perilous financial consequences for their organisations. It was the failings of a bold name atop the marquee that closed the entire show. 6park.com在每一个案例中，人们都先注意到某个人不切实际的承诺和大胆的出格行为，然后关注这些会给企业财务带来的危险后果。这就好比一个名字挂在剧院入口上方的人出了岔子，导致整场戏停演。 6park.com 6park.comIn an era awash with “move fast and break things” business strategies and social media influencers, I suppose our fascination with disruptive C-suite storytellers shouldn’t be all that surprising. Today’s technology and free-flowing capital access has enabled individuals to become huge stars like never before. 6park.com在一个“快速行动，破除陈规”的商业策略大行其道、网红遍地的时代，我们会迷恋具有颠覆意味、擅长讲故事的高层管理人员没什么可奇怪的。当今的技术和获取资本的便利使个人能够成为前所未有的巨星。 6park.com 6park.comWith that supersized overnight success, though, came a collection of shortcomings that are only now being exposed. 6park.com然而，这种一蹴而就的特大成功伴随着一堆问题，只是如今才暴露出来。 6park.com 6park.comFirst, these individuals tend to govern without the usual checks and balances. Whether through highly concentrated shareholdings or share-rights, presumed genius or outright aggression, they call all the shots. 6park.com首先，这些人在治理中往往缺少通常的制衡。由于他们持有大部分的股份或股票相关权利，或者他们被人看作天才，又或者他们行事极其强硬，总之一切都是他们在发号施令。 6park.com 6park.comSecond, blind loyalty was all but a requirement — from employees, capital providers and customers. Pushback was non-existent and doubters were ridiculed for their disbelief. 6park.com其次，盲目忠诚几乎是一种要求——对员工、资本提供者和客户。反驳是不存在的，怀疑者受到奚落。 6park.com 6park.comThird, these individuals were surrounded by loyal and adoring fans. Rock musicians never had it this good. 6park.com第三，这些人的身边环绕着忠诚、仰慕他们的粉丝。摇滚乐手也没有过这种荣光。 6park.com 6park.comOn the surface, this all looked unstoppable. The founders and chief executives seemed to wield power in the style of autocrats or cult leaders. 6park.com表面上，这些看起来都是不可阻挡的。创始人和首席执行官们就像独裁者或邪教领袖那样行使权力。 6park.com 6park.comThe challenge with cults, though, is that they foster environments of compliance, not confidence. Only the leader has certainty and control. Everyone else is powerless. Moreover, whatever certainty exists results from obedience to that individual. 6park.com然而，对邪教来说，问题是他们要营造的是人人服从、而不是充满信心的环境。只有领袖具有确定性和控制权。其他人都没有丝毫权力。而且，任何确定性都来自对那人的服从。 6park.com 6park.comProvided the benefits of compliance and loyalty are high — and the punishment for non-compliance especially brutal — such an environment can be easily sustained. 6park.com假设服从和忠诚大有好处，而不服从会受到特别残忍的惩罚，这种环境就很容易维持下去。 6park.com 6park.comProblems quickly arise, though, when those factors are reversed. Extreme power is either absolute or non-existent. Environments of powerlessness and certainty are inherently binary. There’s no middle ground. And in that context, a collapse in confidence comes quickly. 6park.com然而，当这些因素发生逆转时，问题很快就会滋生。极端权力要么是绝对的，要么就不存在。人们毫无权力的环境和具有确定性的环境本质上是二元存在的。绝没有中间地带。而在那种环境下，信心崩溃会发生得非常快。 6park.com 6park.comThe failures we’ve seen have been treated by investors as one-offs — isolated cases of aberrant leadership. After the collapse of multiple cryptocurrency businesses and the downfall of Kwon and Terraform Labs earlier this year, Bankman-Fried was analogised to both JPMorgan and Warren Buffett. But the question is what happens as more larger-than-life heroes come under the microscope. What if all we’ve seen so far is merely the demise of the “subprime” characters in this saga? 6park.com我们所看到的倒闭事件被投资者看作是个案——是关于行为出格的领导人的孤例。今年早些时候多家加密货币企业破产、Do Kwon的Terraform Labs也倒下后，班克曼-弗里德被人比作摩根大通(JPMorgan)和沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)。然而，当更多具有传奇色彩的英雄被放到显微镜下审视时，结果会怎样呢？如果我们迄今所见的都只是这部大戏中“次级”角色的殒落呢？ 6park.com 6park.comAnd let’s be honest. It’s not as if we lack additional names. Therein lies the problem. Not only is the list of salesmen especially long this cycle, but it is also far reaching. As we’ve already seen with crypto, the risk of contagion is far higher than popular industry adjectives such as “decentralised” suggest. 6park.com说句掏心窝子的话，其实我们还能列出更多名字。问题就在这里。不光本轮周期的梦想推销员名单特别长，它还具有深远影响。正如我们已经在加密货币领域所看到的，危机蔓延的风险远高于流行的行业术语“去中心化”这个词所寓意的。 6park.com 6park.comWhat we are now witnessing with the failure of FTX is not a crypto crisis; it is a crisis in cultish celebrity. The collapse of confidence in emperors can take down far-reaching empires in a flash. With so much tied to a small handful of star individuals across technology and finance, we could easily see the same SBF-FTX phenomenon play out elsewhere. 6park.com我们现在目睹的FTX破产不是一场加密货币危机，而是一场名人崇拜危机。对皇帝的信心崩溃，可能导致辽阔的帝国一朝覆灭。鉴于科技和金融领域与一小撮有着明星光环的个人息息相关，我们会很容易看到类似SBF-FTX的现象在其他地方上演。 6park.com 6park.comUnlike the past, what matters most now isn’t balance-sheet strength or the reputation of institutions, but the trust that the crowd has in a few high-profile figures. As these figures go, so will the markets. 6park.com与以往不同，现在最重要的不是资产负债表状况或企业声誉，而是大家对少数备受瞩目的人物的信任。当他们走人时，市场也不行了。 6park.com 6park.comLike it or not, this time it’s personal. 6park.com不管你喜欢与否，这次是个人的戏。 6park.com
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