The globalisation elephant has left the room


The latest data indicates a clear link between trade integration and falling global inequality. 6park.com
最新数据表明，贸易一体化与全球不平等程度下降之间存在明显联系，在过去十年中，全球不平等现象大幅减少。



Almost a decade ago, the globalisation elephant entered the room. At a time when advanced western economies were still suffering from the 2008 financial crisis, a 2013 World Bank working paper contained a chart that appeared to explain everything. 6park.com
大约10年前，全球化这头大象进入了房间。在西方发达经济体仍在遭受2008年金融危机的余波之际，世界银行(World Bank) 2013年的一份工作报告中包含了一张似乎能解释一切的图表。 6park.com
 
The chart, produced by researchers Christoph Lakner and Branko Milanovic, resembled an elephant. It showed growth in living standards at different parts of the global income distribution in the 20-year period of peak globalisation ending in 2008. That encompassed the fall of the Soviet Union and China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. 6park.com
这张图表由研究人员克里斯托弗•拉克纳(Christoph Lakner)和布兰科•米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)制作，看起来就像一头大象。它显示了在截至2008年的全球化高峰期的20年里，全球收入分配中不同群体的生活水平提高程度。苏联解体和中国加入世界贸易组织(WHO)也是在这个时期内发生的。 6park.com
 
The most common way to interpret the chart was to view the tail of the elephant as representing the global poor — mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, which enjoyed precious little benefit from trade integration. Higher up the income distribution, the main body of the beast showed huge growth in real incomes at over 5 per cent a year largely going to Chinese households and the new Asian middle classes. 6park.com
这张图表最常见的解读方式是把大象的尾巴看作是全球穷人——这些人大多在撒哈拉以南非洲国家生活，这些国家从贸易一体化中得到的好处少得可怜。在收入分配的较上层，这头大象的躯干显示了一部分人群的实际收入以每年逾5%的速度大幅增长，主要是中国家庭和亚洲新兴中产阶级。



Sliding down the elephant’s trunk were the middle classes of rich countries, suffering from no growth at all in their incomes. But immune from this stagnation were those in the world’s top 1 per cent, represented by the trunk’s tip pointing upwards. This elite were in charge of the globalised world and creamed off the proceeds. 6park.com
沿着大象鼻子滑下来的是富裕国家的中产阶级，他们的收入完全没有增长。但那些世界上最富有的1%人群却没有受到这种停滞的影响，他们是大象上扬的鼻子尖。这些精英掌控着全球化的世界，并从收益中获利。 6park.com
 
This interpretation of the chart was never correct because it took no account of how people moved up and down world income distribution over time. But it has polluted the discourse over the effects of globalisation ever since. The good news is that Milanovic’s new research, updating his results to 2018, has removed the elephant from the room. 6park.com
以上对该图表的这些解释从来都是不正确的，因为它没有考虑到人们是如何随着时间的推移在全球收入分配中上下移动的。但从那时起，这张图表就污染了有关全球化影响的论述。好消息是，米拉诺维奇的新研究——其结果更新到2018年——将这头大象从房间里清除了。 6park.com
 
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the incomes of the poorest families have risen the fastest, with annual real income growth of the poorest tenth of the world’s population at about 7 per cent. That falls to 6 per cent for households with middle incomes and under 2 per cent a year for the global elite. 6park.com
自2008年金融危机以来，最贫困家庭的收入增长最快，全球最贫困的十分之一人口的实际收入年增长率约为7%。中等收入家庭的实际收入年增长率降至6%，全球精英阶层的实际收入年增长率不到2%。 6park.com
 
There is no doubt that this data shows a large reduction in global inequality over the past decade. But nevertheless it again requires careful interpretation because, as Milanovic says, over the past 30 years there has been “the greatest reshuffle of individual income positions since the Industrial Revolution”. Lower-income urban Chinese households, who came close to the bottom of the global distribution in 1988, now enjoy living standards above the global median. 6park.com
毫无疑问，这些数据表明在过去十年中，全球不平等现象大幅减少。但无论如何，这一次，数据仍然需要仔细解读，因为正如米拉诺维奇所说，在过去30年里，出现了“自工业革命以来最大规模的个人收入地位的重新洗牌”。1988年，中国较低收入城市家庭的生活水平接近全球收入分配的底部，如今却高于全球中值。 6park.com
 
With China having vacated many of the slots at the bottom of the distribution, those are filled mostly by poorer Indian households who now have lower living standards than their Chinese counterparts. 6park.com
由于中国已经腾出了许多分配底层的位置，这些位置主要由较贫穷的印度家庭填补，他们的生活水平现低于中国家庭。



A reshuffle of living standards is also happening further up. The poorest Italian families were in the top 30 per cent of the world’s income distribution in 1988, but now only just make it into the top half. Importantly, the middle classes in all rich countries have not slipped down the global rankings. The top of the rankings has shown great stability, with G7 households accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global top 5 per cent both in 2008 and 2018. 6park.com
生活水平的重新洗牌还在进一步发生。1988年，意大利最贫穷的家庭在全球收入分配中处于前30%，但现在仅勉强进入前一半。重要的是，所有富裕国家的中产阶级在全球排名中并没有下滑。排名的前几名表现出了极大的稳定性，在2008年和2018年，七国集团(G7)家庭都占到全球收入前5%家庭的大约三分之二。 6park.com
 
This new research requires us to modify our thinking about globalisation. With Chinese and East Asian incomes now above the world median, further improvements in average living standards will increase global inequality rather than reduce it unless there are also income gains in rural India and Africa — a much harder ask given the past economic performance of these areas. 6park.com
这项新研究要求我们改变对全球化的看法。鉴于中国和东亚的收入目前高于世界中值，平均生活水平的进一步提高将加剧而非减少全球不平等，除非印度和非洲农村地区也实现收入增长——鉴于这些地区过去的经济表现，这个要求要难得多。 6park.com
 
Globalisation might therefore not be nearly as successful in reducing world inequalities over the next few decades as it has been over the past 10 years. But we should welcome the fact that the globalisation elephant has left the room. The truth is, it was never really there. 6park.com
因此，在未来几十年里，全球化在减少全球不平等方面可能远不如过去10年那么成功。但我们应该欢迎全球化大象已经离开房间的事实。真实情况是，它从未真正存在过。 6park.com