China Will Get Over Covid-19. But Will Its Markets Recover?


中国严格的动态清零政策终将退出，但投资者不应想当然地认为，这将意味着结构性牛市必将回归。


在经历了几年的惨淡表现后，中国股市在11月份出现了反弹。

对于中国股票的投资者来说，中国政府最终是否会以及何时放松其严格的新冠防疫和房地产行业调控措施，基本上已经成为他们最近思考的全部问题。有一些迹象表明，真正的变化可能终将到来。 6park.com
For investors in Chinese stocks, when and if Beijing will finally ease up on its strict Covid-19 and property-sector control measures are basically the only questions on their minds lately. There are some signs that real change could finally be on the horizon. 6park.com
  
但更多的结构性难题仍然存在：即使是在房地产和新冠疫情最乐观的情况下，未来10年投资中国市场可能带来多大回报？ 6park.com
But the more structural conundrum remains: How profitable is investing in the Chinese market likely to be over the coming decade, even assuming the best on property and Covid-19? 6park.com
  
在经历了几年的惨淡表现后，中国股市本月出现了反弹。随着中国政府对防疫政策进行微调并加强对受困房企的支持，MSCI中国指数在11月大涨21%。然而，即使在最近的反弹之后，该指数自2021年初以来仍缩水过半，基本上抹去了过去10年间的所有涨幅。 6park.com
Chinese shares rebounded this month after a horrible couple of years. The MSCI China surged 21% in November, as Beijing fine-tuned its strict pandemic curbs and stepped up support for the struggling property sector. Even after the rally, the index has still lost more than half of its value since early 2021, basically wiping out all the gains in the past decade. 6park.com
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无论是中国的新冠防疫政策还是房地产市场，都不太可能在短期内反转。最近本土新冠病例数的激增以及由此导致的全国多地的封控，给本月初一些媒体和经纪机构报告中明显可见的天真乐观情绪泼了一大盆现实的“冷水”。但是，认为最坏的情况已经过去的情绪可能仍会成为未来几个月影响市场走势的一个驱动力，尤其是考虑到中国股市实际遭受的创伤之重。根据FactSet慧甚的数据，恒生中国企业指数预期市盈率为九倍，徘徊在几十年来的低点上方附近。 6park.com
A quick turnaround in China’s Covid-19 policy or property market is unlikely. The recent surge in Covid-19 cases and the resulting lockdowns across the country are a strong reality check for the wide-eyed optimism that was evident in some press and brokerage reports earlier this month. But sentiment that the worst is over will nonetheless likely continue to drive the market in coming months—especially given how battered Chinese stocks really are. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trades at nine times forward earnings according to FactSet, hovering just above its lowest levels in decades.



中国股市的市盈率已经下降，但这看不出来投资者应付出多少代价。根据花旗(Citi)的数据，MSCI中国指数成分股的每股收益较去年10月的峰值下降31%，其中房地产、科技和消费类股领跌。经济的最终重启将有助于提振收益，但可能仍需要数月时间。 6park.com
Trading multiples for Chinese stocks have dropped, but that doesn’t answer the question of how much investors should pay. Earnings per share for stocks in the MSCI China Index have fallen 31% from their peak last October according to Citi, with real estate, technology and consumer stocks leading the decline. An eventual reopening of the economy will help boost earnings, but that is likely still months away. 6park.com
  
更重要的是，多年以来，中国的长期收益增长一直落后于其他国家，现在有新的理由预计这一趋势将会继续。花旗指出，尽管经济增长强劲，但MSCI中国指数的每股收益自2010年以来一直持平。同一时期，MSCI美国指数的每股收益每年增长9%。 6park.com
More important, long-term earnings growth in China has long lagged behind other countries—and there are now new reasons to expect this trend to continue. Earnings per share for the MSCI China have been flat since 2010 despite strong economic growth, notes Citi. Over the same period, earnings per share for the MSCI USA Index has grown 9% per annum. 6park.com
  
这在一定程度上是因为，国有能源和电信公司等中国市场青睐的老牌公司收益增长放缓，而这些股票在MSCI中国指数中仍占很大权重。然而原本有望取代这些沉闷股的高增长股，即中国之前充满活力的互联网板块，在过去两年遭遇监管机构的协同打压后，现在正面临结构性阻力。 6park.com
Partly that is because while earnings growth at old-style China market favorites such as state-owned energy and telecom companies has slowed, they still make up a big part of the Chinese stock index. But the earnings-growth engine that was expected to replace those stolid stocks—China’s previously dynamic internet sector—now faces structural headwinds following regulators’ concerted assault of the past two years. 6park.com
  
此外，目前还不清楚哪个板块会崛起，并取而代之。在资本高度密集的芯片行业，中国有一场硬仗要打。中国在电动汽车和电池领域有强大的竞争者，但这些行业仍处于起步阶段，可能在技术方面面临来自国外的进一步干扰。 6park.com
Moreover, it is unclear what could rise up to take their place. China faces an uphill battle in the extraordinarily capital-intensive chip sector. And while it has strong contenders in the electric-vehicle and battery space, those industries are still in their infancy and could face further technological disruption from abroad. 6park.com
  
换句话说，即使随着防疫措施和楼市管控措施的放松，中国经济大幅反弹，但这能否在中期转化为投资者收益的强劲增长还远不清楚。中国专注于大规模（而且可能是浪费性）资本支出，以追求关键行业自给自足之际，恐怕不会让股票投资者大赚特赚。 6park.com
In other words, even if China’s economy bounces back substantially as Covid-19 and property-sector controls loosen, it is far from clear that will translate into robust earnings growth for investors over the medium term. A China focused on massive—and possibly wasteful—capital expenditures to chase self-reliance in key industries might not be a China that delivers outsize rewards for public-stock investors.