Twitter Is Too Musk to Fail


Twitter的财务状况不容乐观，但马斯克宁愿继续砸钱拯救该公司，也不愿让其屈服于困境。


马斯克正在表明，他愿意为Twitter投入资源来挽救自己作为一名出色的、非传统商人的声誉。

至少马斯克(Elon Musk)现在很开心。这位Twitter (TWTR)的新主人上周问他在Twitter上的近1.19亿粉丝如何在社交媒体上赚点小钱。他的回答：“从一大笔钱开始。” 6park.com
At least Elon Musk is having fun. Twitter’s new owner asked his nearly 119 million Twitter followers last week how one can make a small fortune on social media. His reply: “Start out with a large one.” 6park.com
  
不过，现在打出#RIPTwitter（Twitter一路走好）标签可能还为时过早。的确，大型广告客户正在离开这个平台或暂停它们的业务，数以千计的员工已经离职，不切实际的计划比比皆是，Twitter平台上攻击性内容泛滥成灾。但是，即便说马斯克经营Twitter的前几周糟糕透顶，但Twitter的用户数却有增无减。 6park.com
It is probably too soon for that #RIPTwitter hashtag, though. True, major advertisers are leaving the platform or pausing their business, thousands of employees have left, harebrained initiatives abound and offensive content is rampant. But if Mr. Musk’s first few weeks running Twitter have been a train wreck, few people seem able to look away.  6park.com
  
据马斯克说，结果是用户数量创出历史新高。华尔街预计，到今年底，Twitter将拥有2.56亿用户；马斯克截至11月20日的未经审计的信息披露显示，现在预计，到今年年底，该公司的用户数有望远超2.66亿。若果真如此，该公司第四季度的用户数将较2021年第四季度增长近23%，与疫情前的2019年的增幅基本相当，比2021年高出10个百分点。 6park.com
The result is an all-time high in users, according to Mr. Musk. Wall Street was estimating Twitter would end the year with 256 million of them; Mr. Musk’s unaudited disclosures as of Nov. 20 imply it is currently on the path to hitting well over 266 million by the end of the year. That would make for nearly 23% growth over the fourth quarter of 2021—roughly in line with its growth rate in 2019 before the pandemic and 10 percentage points higher than in 2021.



显然，如果该平台在财务上无法生存下去，这些数字就毫无意义。马斯克本月早些时候有关Twitter可能破产的暗示敲响了警钟。但马斯克对他麾下的特斯拉(Tesla Inc., TSLA)和SpaceX也发表过类似声明，而这些公司现在仍然具备偿付能力。 6park.com
Obviously those numbers are meaningless if the platform can’t survive financially. Mr. Musk’s suggestion earlier this month that bankruptcy is a possibility set off alarm bells. But he made similar statements about his other companies, Tesla and SpaceX, and they are still solvent.  6park.com
  
不过，为了给这笔440亿美元的收购融资，马斯克和他的投资者们举债约130亿美元，仅每年的利息账单就超过Twitter作为上市公司的最后一个财季的收入，Twitter约90%的收入来自广告客户，其中许多广告客户至少已暂停在这家平台上的业务。他裁减的数以千计的工作岗位将节省资金，但也可能影响到Twitter运作或吸引客户的能力。 6park.com
Mr. Musk and his investors took on about $13 billion in debt to fund their $44 billion purchase, though, yielding an annual interest bill alone that is more than Twitter’s revenue in its last quarter as a public company. Some 90% of that revenue came from advertisers, many of which are at the very least taking a break from the platform for now. The thousands of jobs he has cut will save money but could also affect how well Twitter works or brings in customers.  6park.com
  
在马斯克说他收购Twitter的决定不是为了钱时，他可能指的是该平台的收购价，而不是Twitter倒闭可能对他整体净资产价值的影响。尽管今年以来，作为马斯克主要资产的特斯拉的股价已累计下跌48%，但该公司的市值依然是通用汽车公司(General Motors Co., GM)的近10倍。这一溢价的大部分，甚至全部，都是基于他作为一个出色的、非传统商人的光环。 6park.com
When Mr. Musk said his decision to buy Twitter wasn’t about the money, he was likely referring to the platform’s purchase price, not the effect its failure could have on his overall net worth. His main asset, Tesla, even after a 48% slide so far this year, is worth nearly 10 times as much as General Motors. Most, or even all, of that premium is based on his aura as a brilliant and unconventional businessman. 6park.com
  
马斯克已经表明，他愿意为Twitter投入资源来挽救这种声誉。首先，马斯克现在是全职管理该公司，而他原本可以很容易地任命其他人来做此事，此外，他还派了特斯拉的工程师来解决Twitter的问题。今年8月，他在Twitter上表示，如果他在法庭上被强制要求完成对Twitter的收购，就必须避免紧急出售特斯拉的股票，但就在完成收购该公司交易几天之后，他最近又出售了1,950万股特斯拉股票。 6park.com
Mr. Musk is already showing that he is willing to dedicate resources to Twitter to save that reputation. He is running the show full-time right now, for starters, when he could easily have appointed someone else, and has deployed Tesla engineers to Twitter’s problems. And after tweeting about the importance of avoiding an “emergency” sale of Tesla stock back in August if he was forced in court to go through with his purchase of Twitter, he recently sold another 19.5 million shares just days after the acquisition closed.  6park.com
  
截至上周，马斯克名下仍有4.45亿股特斯拉股票，他还有很多戏法可变，而且他是一个善于变戏法的人。他的选择包括以某种方式对Twitter 进行资本重组，或者可能以折扣价购买该公司的未偿债务。在传统的商业圈子里，他作为“首席Twitter长”迄今的反复无常举止，以及花冤枉钱的做法可能会令他被视为一个不合格的商人。不过，由于马斯克的财富与那些因他对金钱和礼数的明显漠视而崇敬他、但自身并不精通金融知识的人群联系在一起，因此他不能让Twitter崩溃。 6park.com
With 445 million Tesla shares still in his name as of last week, Mr. Musk has plenty more rabbits to pull out of just that hat, and he is a man who wears many of them. His options include somehow recapitalizing Twitter or perhaps buying its outstanding debt at a discount. In traditional business circles, his erratic behavior so far as “Chief Twit” and throwing good money after bad might be disqualifying. For someone whose wealth is tied to a financially unsophisticated crowd that reveres him for his apparent indifference to money and manners, though, letting Twitter crash and burn just isn’t an option. 6park.com
  
关于Twitter倒闭的传言充其量也似乎只能说为时过早。 6park.com
Rumors of Twitter’s demise seem premature at best. 6park.com