U.S. Weapons Industry Unprepared for a China Conflict, Report Says


据战略与国际问题研究中心的一项新研究，乌克兰战争暴露了美国军备工业广泛存在的一些问题，这些问题可能损及美军与中国打持久战的能力。


乌克兰士兵在与俄罗斯的战争中依赖大量的美国军事装备。

据一项新研究，乌克兰战争暴露了美国军备工业广泛存在的一些问题，这些问题可能损及美军与中国打持久战的能力。 6park.com
The war in Ukraine has exposed widespread problems in the American armaments industry that may hobble the U.S. military’s ability to fight a protracted war against China, according to a new study. 6park.com
   
自俄罗斯去年入侵乌克兰以来，美国已承诺向乌克兰提供价值超过270亿美元的军事装备和物资，从头盔到悍马(Humvee)军用车等无所不包。这种武器注入被认为有助于乌军在二战以来欧洲最大的一场地面战争中抵御俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)的入侵。 6park.com
The U.S. has committed to sending Ukraine more than $27 billion in military equipment and supplies—everything from helmets to Humvees—since Russia’s invasion of the country last year. The infusion of arms is credited with helping the Ukrainian forces blunt Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion in what has become the biggest land war in Europe since World War II. 6park.com
   
但据该研究，随着武器库存降至低位而防务公司没有能力使其得到迅速补充，这场旷日持久的冲突还暴露出美国面临的战略层面危险。这份研究报告由华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的高级副总裁Seth Jones撰写。 6park.com
But the protracted conflict has also exposed the strategic peril facing the U.S. as weapons inventories fall to a low level and defense companies aren’t equipped to replenish them rapidly, according to the study, written by Seth Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.


美国向乌克兰运送了大量标枪导弹。

Jones在一次采访中表示：“总之，依我看，美国国防工业基础没有为应对如今的安全环境做好准备。”他说，国防工业现在的运作方式“更适合于和平时期的环境”。 6park.com
“The bottom line is the defense industrial base, in my judgment, is not prepared for the security environment that now exists,” said Mr. Jones in an interview. Industry now is operating in a manner “better suited to a peacetime environment,” he added. 6park.com
   
Jones称，这项研究显示出，如果在印太地区与中国发生冲突，美军将何其迅速地耗尽军火。该研究报告反映了高级军事、国防、国会、工业和其他政府部门官员的意见。 6park.com
Mr. Jones said the study, which reflected input from senior military, defense, congressional, industry and other government officials, showed how quickly the U.S. military would run out of munitions in a potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. 6park.com
   
Jones说：“如果应对台海冲突一旦爆发的情境所需的种种军火储备不足，如何能有效地加以威慑？” 6park.com
“How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario?” Mr. Jones said. 6park.com
   
过去20多年里，美国在伊拉克、阿富汗和其他地方进行了反叛乱作战，实施的是部队密集型战略，但乌克兰冲突基本上属于常规战争，更多地依赖重型武器。在印太地区与中国的潜在冲突将有别于在乌克兰发生的以陆地战为主的冲突，但仍然需要深度依赖美国的武器储备。 6park.com
For more than the last 20 years, the U.S. fought insurgency warfare in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, a troop-intensive strategy, but the Ukraine conflict is a largely conventional war that relies more on heavy weaponry. A potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific would be different from the largely land war taking place in Ukraine, but would nonetheless need to draw deeply from U.S. arms stockpiles. 6park.com
  
根据前述研究的结果，国防工业基础的这些问题目前正影响美国在印太地区建立可信威慑力量或在军事冲突中与中国对峙的能力；这些问题部分是由过时的军事承包程序和迟缓的官僚制度造成的。 6park.com
The problems with the industrial base, in part the result of outdated military contracting procedures and a sluggish bureaucracy, are now affecting the ability to create a credible deterrent in the Indo-Pacific region or face-off against China in a military conflict, according to the study’s finding. 6park.com
   
“这些不足将使美国很难维持一场旷日持久的冲突，”这份研究报告称。“这些问题还凸显出，美国的国防工业基础缺乏应对一场重大战争所需的足够快速增援能力。” 6park.com
“These shortfalls would make it extremely difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict,” the report said. “They also highlight that the U.S. defense industrial base lacks adequate surge capacity for a major war.” 6park.com
   
乌克兰人消耗武器装备的速度迅速显示出美国国防工业基础在围绕台湾的长期冲突中可能面临的挑战。这份研究报告举例称，自去年8月以来，运至乌克兰的“标枪”(Javelin)肩扛式导弹数量相当于大约七年的产量（以2022财年的生产速度衡量）。 6park.com
The rate of consumption of weaponry by the Ukrainians is quickly demonstrating the challenges the U.S. industrial base could face in an extended conflict over Taiwan. The number of Javelin shoulder-fired missiles sent to Ukraine since last August, for example, is equal to about seven years of production based on fiscal 2022 production rates, the study said. 6park.com
   
这份研究表示，美国向乌克兰政府提供的“毒刺”(Stinger)防空系统数量与过去20年出口到国外的该防空系统数量大致相同。与此同时，美国政府已向乌克兰运送超过100万发155毫米口径炮弹，导致美国军方自身的供应减少，该研究称，美军目前的供应水平被认为偏低。 6park.com
The number of antiaircraft Stinger systems provided to Kyiv represent roughly the same number of systems exported abroad over the past 20 years, the study said. Meanwhile, the more than one million rounds of 155 mm ammunition sent to Ukraine by Washington has shrunk the U.S. military’s own supplies, which the study says are now considered low. 6park.com
   
这份研究报告表示，“标枪”导弹系统、榴弹炮和反炮兵雷达的库存也都被认为偏低。 6park.com
Inventories of the Javelin system, howitzer artillery and counter-artillery radars are also all considered low, according to the study. 6park.com
  
该研究称，像“鱼叉”(Harpoon)海防系统这样的平台被认为是中等规模的，但目前的库存可能不足以用于战时。“鱼叉”海防系统被视为台湾防御战略的重要组成部分。 6park.com
Platforms, like the Harpoon coastal defense system, which is seen as a significant piece of Taiwan’s defense strategy, are considered medium, though current stocks might not be sufficient for wartime, the study said. 6park.com
   
该研究称，从以往的工业动员来看，美国国防工业基础将需要数年时间来生产和交付足够数量的关键武器系统和弹药，并对已经耗尽的库存进行资本调整。 6park.com
“The history of industrial mobilization suggests that it will take years for the defense industrial base to produce and deliver sufficient quantities of critical weapons systems and munitions and recapitalize stocks that have been used up,” the study said.


乌克兰巴赫穆特，乌克兰士兵正在使用“毒刺”防空系统。

近几个月来，军方领导人也对工业基础表示越来越失望。美国舰队司令部负责人考德尔上将(Daryl Caudle)指责国防工业延误了武器供应。 6park.com
Military leaders have also expressed increasing frustration about the industrial base in recent months. Adm. Daryl Caudle, the head of U.S. Fleet Forces Command, called out the defense industry for the delayed supply of arms. 6park.com
  
“他们没有交付我们需要的军械，对此我不能原谅，”考德尔上将说，当时他被问及在美国向乌克兰输送数以十亿计美元援助的情况下，如何平衡美国军方的准备工作。 6park.com
“I am not forgiving of the fact they’re not delivering the ordnance we need,” he said when asked about balancing the U.S. military’s readiness amid the U.S. shipments of billions of dollars of assistance to Ukraine. 6park.com
  
“所有这些与疫情相关的东西，零件、供应链之类的，我才不管，”他说。“我们都有难办的工作。” 6park.com
“All this stuff about Covid this, parts, supply chain—I just don’t really care,” he said. “We’ve all got tough jobs.” 6park.com
   
虽然自去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，美国及其盟友能够向乌克兰输送价值数以十亿计美元的武器，但五角大楼的规划人员预计，一旦台海冲突爆发，台湾无法轻易获得补给，因为中国军队可能会封锁台湾岛。根据2019年以来批准的军售，已经有超过190亿美元的美国对台武器供应订单积压。 6park.com
While the U.S. and its allies have been able to send billions of dollars of arms to Ukraine since last year’s invasion, Pentagon planners expect that Taiwan couldn’t be easily resupplied after the start of a conflict, since Chinese forces would likely blockade the island. There is already a backlog of more than $19 billion of U.S. arms to Taiwan, based on sales approved since 2019. 6park.com
   
此项研究特别针对美国政府，该政府未能做出调整，在面对工业基础问题时仍然“厌恶风险、效率低下、行动迟缓”。根据此项研究，管理对外军售的政府法规已经过时，目前的程序可能需要18至24个月。 6park.com
The CSIS study took particular aim at the U.S. government, which has failed to adapt, remaining “risk averse, inefficient and sluggish” when it comes to the industrial base. And the government regulations that govern foreign military sales are outdated, according to the study, which said the current process can take 18 to 24 months.


阿拉巴马州特洛伊的一家洛克希德·马丁公司工厂里的标枪反坦克导弹。

研究报告称，在试图防止军事技术落入对手手中方面，美国建立了一个监管体系，但其运转过于迟缓，难以与关键的前线国家合作。 6park.com
“In trying to prevent military technology from falling into the hands of adversaries, the United States has put in place a regulatory regime that is too sluggish to work with critical front-line countries,” the report said. 6park.com
  
该报告举了一个例子，在决定利用美国对外军售程序向台湾提供一个未具名武器系统时，将交付时间增加了两年，这意味着算上两年的生产时间，需要四年才能运到台湾。 6park.com
The study cited one example in which the decision to provide an unnamed weapon system to Taiwan using the U.S. foreign military sales process added two years to the delivery date, which meant it took four years to get to the island counting the two-year production time. 6park.com
  
报告表示，鉴于台湾海峡持续的紧张局势，这样的延迟程度太大，会带来问题。 6park.com
“This is a significant and problematic difference given the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” the study said. 6park.com
   
Jones称，虽然美国官员认为，台湾在战斗中所需的武器在许多情况下与被送往乌克兰的装备不同，但俄乌战争还是暴露了美国国防工业基础和政府在应对这一问题上的不足。 6park.com
While the kind of weaponry U.S. officials believe Taiwan needs for a fight is in many cases different than what has been sent to Ukraine, the conflict in Europe has nonetheless exposed fissures within the industrial base and the government for contending with the problem, Mr. Jones said. 6park.com
   
与此同时，美国政府还没有调整至Jones和其他一些人认为需要有的战时心态，这要求政府显示出灵活性和效率，以使国防工业能生产更多武器。 6park.com
At the same time, the government has yet to adapt to what Mr. Jones and others believe is a wartime mentality that requires governmental agility and efficiency to enable the defense industry to produce more weapons. 6park.com
   
另一方面，中国的威权政府近年来对军事现代化进行了大量投资。 6park.com
China’s autocratic government, on the other hand, has invested heavily in recent years in military modernization. 6park.com
   
战略与国际问题研究中心最近几个月进行的一系列战争推演表明，如果与中国发生冲突，美国可能不到一周就会耗尽一些武器装备，包括远程精确制导弹药。 6park.com
A series of wargames CSIS conducted in recent months showed that the U.S., in the case of a conflict with China, could run out of some weaponry, including long-range, precision-guided munitions, in less than one week. 6park.com
   
Jones建议美国重新评估自身总体弹药需求，敦促国会就此事举行听证会。参谋长联席会议主席、陆军上将马克·米利(Mark Milley)去年11月表示，这种努力已在进行中。 6park.com
Mr. Jones recommends that the U.S. reassess its total munition requirements, urging Congress to hold hearings on the matter. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley said in November that such an effort is already under way. 6park.com
  
该研究报告还建议重新评估美国对补充库存的要求，建立一个战略弹药储备，并制定一项可持续的弹药采购计划以满足当前和未来的需求。 6park.com
The study also suggests reassessing American requirements for replenishing its stockpiles, creating a strategic munitions reserve and determining a sustainable munitions procurement plan to meet current and future requirements.