The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out


消费支出这个美国经济引擎开始失去动力，疫情期间积累的储蓄以及低利率对消费的助力正在消失。


俄亥俄州匹克灵顿的Jazzlyn Millberry为了买最优惠的商品，会去不同的日杂用品商店。

消费支出这个美国经济引擎开始失去动力。 6park.com
The engine of the U.S. economy—consumer spending—is starting to sputter. 6park.com
  
过去的四个月中，美国零售支出有三个月出现下降。去年12月份，经通胀调整后，包括租金、理发和主要账单支出在内的服务支出持平，为近一年来的最差月度表现。由于抵押贷款利率上升，去年美国成屋销售下降到2014年以来的最低水平。汽车行业创下了十多年来销售最差的一年。 6park.com
Retail purchases have fallen in three of the past four months. Spending on services, including rent, haircuts and the bulk of bills, was flat in December, after adjusting for inflation, the worst monthly reading in nearly a year. Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell last year to their lowest level since 2014 as mortgage rates rose. The auto industry posted its worst sales year in more than a decade. 6park.com
   
这与2020年下半年的情况截然相反，当时美国人将美国经济拉出了疫情低迷期，帮助美国避免了许多经济学家所担心的长期不景气局面。出行受限期间，消费者抢购健身单车、电视和学生使用的笔记本电脑。限制措施取消后，他们迅速回归喜欢的餐馆和旅行目的地消费。 6park.com
It’s a stark turnaround from the second half of 2020, when Americans lifted the economy out of a pandemic downturn, helping the U.S. avoid what many economists worried would be a prolonged slump. Consumers snapped up exercise bikes, televisions and laptop computers for schoolchildren during lockdowns. When restrictions were lifted, they rushed back to their favorite restaurants and travel destinations. 6park.com
    
在美国政府刺激措施、充裕的储蓄和低成本信贷的帮助下，美国人继续消费，即便通胀已经大幅上升。去年，面对达到40年来高位的通胀率，美国人的支出增长速度超过了通胀。在2022年的大部分时间里，消费者支出的增长都比物价涨幅高出约2个百分点。 6park.com
And they kept spending, helped by government stimulus, flush savings accounts and cheap credit, even as inflation picked up. Faced with four-decade-high inflation last year, Americans outspent it. Through most of 2022, consumer spending growth exceeded price increases by about 2 percentage points. 6park.com
   
现在，高支出的驱动力正在减弱，而通胀仍然居高不下。去年12月份，美国人月收入中储蓄占比为3.4%，低于一年前的7.5%，继续从2020年4月的纪录高点回落。信用卡利率上升，美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）已经发出信号，计划本周将基准利率再提高25个基点。这将使美国联邦基金利率目标提高到4.5%至4.75%之间，而去年年初，这一基准利率还接近于零。 6park.com
Now the forces that helped keep spending high are unwinding, while inflation remains elevated. The share of monthly income Americans set aside for savings was 3.4% in December, down from 7.5% a year earlier and from a record high in April 2020. Credit-card interest rates have been rising, and Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they plan an additional quarter-percentage point increase to the central bank’s benchmark rate this week. That would bring the rate to between 4.5% and 4.75%, from near zero at the start of last year.



美国去年12月份以CPI衡量的同比通胀率连续第19个月保持在5%以上，是自20世纪80年代初以来持续时间最长的一次。 6park.com
Annual inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, remained above 5% in December for the 19th straight month, the longest such streak since the early 1980s. 6park.com
   
消费者支出占美国经济总量的约70%。接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)调查的商界和学术界经济学家们平均预计，未来12个月内美国经济衰退的概率为61%，其中一个关键原因就是消费者需求放缓。但许多经济学家表示，如果消费模式企稳，美国有望完全避免衰退。 6park.com
Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of the economy. A downshifting consumer is a key reason that business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, on average, put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. However, many economists say, the U.S. might avoid a recession entirely if spending patterns stabilize. 6park.com
   
有一个因素加大了预测难度：美国失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平之际，包括亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc., AMZN)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GS)和微软(Microsoft Corp., MSFT)在内的一些大公司已开始裁员。 6park.com
One factor making forecasting more difficult: While unemployment is trending at a half-century low, big companies including Amazon.com Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Microsoft Corp. have begun to cut jobs. 6park.com
   
Nationwide首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic表示：“最后的力量堡垒是劳动力市场，但我认为劳动力市场承受不了所有这些其他因素的影响。” 6park.com
“The last bastion of strength is the labor market, but I don’t think it can withstand all these other forces,” said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic. 6park.com
   
最近的裁员趋势让32岁的Benjamin DeLong感到担忧，他是明尼苏达州南部一家工业制造商的客户经理。DeLong的储蓄在疫情期间增加到了3,700美元，一定程度上归功于政府的刺激措施。而现在他的储蓄只剩大约3美分。 6park.com
Recent layoff trends worry Benjamin DeLong, a 32-year-old customer-account manager at an industrial manufacturer in southern Minnesota. His savings rose to $3,700 during the pandemic, thanks in part to government stimulus. He is now down to about 3 cents. 6park.com
   
DeLong说，他不得不动用自己的积蓄来支付不断上涨的食杂费、水电费和汽车保险费用。去年，DeLong和他的伴侣决定与另一些家庭一起买了一些猪，放在亲戚的农场里饲养，自那以后，他发现自己在食品方面的支出压力得到一些缓解。他们一共获得近150磅猪肉，DeLong估计，这在食品开支方面为他们节省了约500美元。 6park.com
Mr. DeLong said he had to dip into his savings to cover the rising costs of his groceries, utilities and car insurance. He has found some relief in his grocery bills since he and his partner decided last year to purchase some pigs, jointly with other families, to be raised on a relative’s farm. Their portion of meat yielded nearly 150 pounds, saving them about $500 on groceries, Mr. DeLong estimated. 6park.com
   
他表示，裁员的可能性是“他现在不得不考虑的严峻形势之一。如果我不再有收入，将会发生什么？” 6park.com
The possibility of layoffs, he said, is “part of the crunch that I’m having to consider now. What’s going to happen if I no longer have an income?”


纽约的购物者。

到目前为止，即便在美联储收紧货币政策的情况下，美国的就业机会仍然充足，工资在继续上涨。2022年12月，美国的失业率降至3.5%的低点，每小时工资同比强劲增长4.6%。根据美国劳工部的数据，去年11月，美国约有1,050万个空缺职位，这表明对劳动力的需求仍然强劲。 6park.com
So far, jobs have remained plentiful and wages continued to rise in the face of Federal Reserve tightening. Unemployment was a low 3.5% in December. Hourly wages were up a robust 4.6% year-over-year. There were about 10.5 million unfilled jobs available in November, according to the Labor Department, a sign that demand for labor remained strong. 6park.com
   
“在就业前景方面，现在很多家庭都很安心，而通常情况下形势不会有这么好，”田纳西大学(University of Tennessee)的经济学家Marianne Wanamaker说。“他们知道，如果他们愿意，明天就能找到工作，现在的情况基本上依然如此。” 6park.com
“Households had a ton of comfort they don’t normally have about their job prospects,” said Marianne Wanamaker, an economist at the University of Tennessee. “They knew they could get a job tomorrow if they wanted to, and that remains mostly true.” 6park.com
   
不过，劳动力市场出现了些许疲软迹象。雇主们正在快速裁减临时工，而失业者找到新工作的时间周期也在拉长。与此同时，根据美国劳工部的数据，每周的工作小时数已经连续两个月出现下降，这导致就业人员到手薪资的上涨速度放慢。 6park.com
Still, there are signs of labor-market weakness. Employers are shedding temporary workers at a fast rate, and people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new ones. Meanwhile, the number of hours worked a week has declined for two straight months, according to the Labor Department, resulting in a slowdown in workers’ take-home pay. 6park.com
   
纽约市纹身店First Class Tattoo的老板Mikhail Andersson已经感受到了需求减弱的迹象。2020年夏天从疫情封控中重新开放后，那些手握失业保险金和刺激支票的消费者为Andersson带来大量生意。 6park.com
Mikhail Andersson, owner of First Class Tattoo in New York City, has seen signs of weakening demand. After it was cleared to reopen from lockdowns in the summer of 2020, his business was slammed by customers flush with unemployment insurance payments and stimulus checks. 6park.com
   
去年11月中旬，Andersson开始接到一些此前预定了全天纹身时段的客户打来的电话，他们说自己只能负担较短时段，或者干脆完全取消。去年12月Andersson有15个全天时段的预定被取消，他擅长的纹身项目通常需要五到六个全天时段才能完成。 6park.com
In mid-November of last year, Mr. Andersson started getting calls from clients who had booked daylong tattoo sessions, saying they could only afford shorter ones or pulling out altogether. Mr. Andersson, who specializes in tattoo projects that often take five or six all-day sessions to complete, had 15 cancellations for full-day slots in December.


纹身店First Class Tattoo的老板Mikhail Andersson已感受到了需求减弱的迹象。

他说：“在我从业15年的时间里，从没见过这样的情况——人们打电话来说他们现在没钱，或者只能负担一个小时的费用，因为他们目前的经济状况非常糟糕。” 6park.com
“In my 15 years doing this, I’ve never seen that—people calling up and saying they don’t have the money to spend right now or can only afford an hour because their current situation is pretty bad,” he said. 6park.com
   
就目前来说，First Class Tattoo大降价的可能性不大，因为基本需求水平仍然强劲。该店的等待名单上仍然排着大约250名客户。 6park.com
For now, First Class Tattoo isn’t likely to slash prices because the baseline level of demand remains strong. Some 250 clients are still on the wait list. 6park.com
   
同样令许多消费者倍感压力的是：过去一年，美联储的紧缩政策导致利率快速上升，已推高了各类债务的成本。 6park.com
Also weighing on many consumers: The rapid increase in rates in the past year, tied to Fed tightening, has pushed the cost of all types of debt higher. 6park.com
   
去年秋天，美国房贷利率达到20年来最高水平。据联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac, 简称﹕房地美)的一项调查显示，去年第四季度大约57%的受访消费者对支付房贷感到担忧，该比例高于第三季度的48%。 6park.com
Mortgage rates reached a 20-year high last fall. Some 57% of consumers were concerned about making housing payments in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by Freddie Mac, up from 48% in the third quarter. 6park.com
   
这些成本的上升正逐渐开始让消费者放慢支出，尽管人们可能需要一段时间才能完全意识到这种影响。 6park.com
The increases are gradually starting to slow down consumer spending, though it might take a while before the effect is fully realized. 6park.com
    
哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学家Kenneth Rogoff表示：“我们很可能会在相当长一段时间内处于利率上升的环境。你会认为这终将抑制消费，尽管我们还没有完全感受到这一影响。” 6park.com
“We’re probably going to have higher interest rates around for quite a while. You would think eventually that would dampen consumption, although that we haven’t had the full effect yet,” said Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff. 6park.com
   
据纽约联邦储备银行的数据显示，去年第三季度信用卡余额同比增长15%，为20多年来的最大增幅。 6park.com
Credit-card balances were up 15% on the year in the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the largest increase in more than two decades. 6park.com
   
此外，在美国最高法院对总统拜登(Joe Biden)的学生债务免除计划作出裁决后，数千万美国人将在今年晚些时候开始或恢复偿还学生贷款。自2020年3月以来相关学生贷款偿付已被冻结，此类偿付按计划将在诉讼解决或前述计划实施60天后恢复。 6park.com
Additionally, tens of millions of Americans are set to start or resume making payments on student loans later this year, after the Supreme Court rules on President Biden’s student-debt cancellation plan. Payments have been frozen since March 2020, and are scheduled to begin again 60 days after litigation is resolved or the program is implemented. 6park.com
   
未来几个月，许多纳税人报税时获得的退税额将减少，因为国会没有延长在疫情高峰期实施的税收减免。 6park.com
Many taxpayers will get smaller refunds when they file their returns in the coming months because Congress didn’t extend the breaks put in place at the height of the pandemic. 6park.com
   
多数失业美国人可以领到至多六个月的失业金，金额为以前工资的一小部分，与疫情救助计划启动前相同。在疫情援助计划下，美国人可领取长达18个月的失业金，有时候工人领到的失业金超过他们的工资。 6park.com
Most Americans who lose their jobs can expect unemployment payments for six months or less, at a fraction of their former paychecks, the same as before pandemic programs kicked in. Pandemic programs allowed Americans to receive unemployment payments for as long as 18 months, and in some cases paid workers more than their paychecks. 6park.com
   
之前慷慨的失业福利以及联邦向家庭直接支付的资金，导致美国人每月储蓄的收入比例在2020年达到新高。后来储蓄率从抗疫封锁开始时的30%以上下降到大约3%。在2019年，即疫情爆发之前那年，这一比率为8.8%。 6park.com
The previously generous jobless benefits and direct federal payments to households caused the share of income Americans save every month to hit new highs in 2020. Since then, the saving rate has fallen to roughly 3% of monthly income, from more than 30% at the start of lockdowns. In 2019, the year before the pandemic, the rate was 8.8%.


过去的四个月中，美国零售支出有三个月出现下降。

过去一年股市的大幅下跌也让消费者感到震惊，比如亚利桑那州斯科茨代尔的Sara Laor。Laor今年57岁，她说股市下跌使她的401(k)和IRA账户缩水了近40%。 6park.com
The large stock-market declines over the past year also alarmed consumers, including Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Sara Laor, who is 57 years old. Ms. Laor said the declines depleted the holdings in her 401(k) and IRA accounts by nearly 40%. 6park.com
   
在过去的一年里，她们一家不得不动用储蓄来支付必要的汽车和管道维修费用。他们正在推迟其他开支，比如购买一辆新车，同时还放弃了点餐消费。 6park.com
Over the past year, her family has had to dip into their savings to pay for essential car and plumbing repairs. They are putting off other expenses, like buying a new car, and have given up ordering in meals. 6park.com
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她现在试着在花钱时慎之又慎，避开要用到昂贵鸡蛋的食谱，还购买更多的罐头食品。 6park.com
She’s trying to spend more cautiously, shunning recipes involving pricey eggs and buying more canned food. 6park.com
  
她说：“我无论做什么，都觉得自己比以前穷多了：这件事能做吗，那件呢？” 6park.com
“Everything I do just feels like I’m a lot poorer: Can I do this or can I do that?” she said. 6park.com
   
美国工厂、托运商和进口商正在收缩规模，这一迹象表明它们预计未来几个月美国人的需求会减少。 6park.com
U.S. factories, shippers and importers are pulling back, a sign they anticipate less demand from Americans in the months ahead. 6park.com
   
加州洛杉矶和长滩港口去年12月份的进港货物量同比下降了20.1%，而自去年8月以来一直低于2019年的水平。一年多以前，港口的积压货物引起了美国总统拜登的注意。 6park.com
Inbound volumes at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California were down 20.1% in December from a year earlier, and have been behind 2019 levels since August. A little over a year ago, backlogs at ports were drawing President Biden’s attention. 6park.com
   
从事卡车和铁路运输的J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.的首席运营官Nicholas Hobbs说，公司发现对家电、家具和健身器材等大件产品的需求出现了下降，不过拥有折扣库存的低价零售商出货量有所增加。 6park.com
Nicholas Hobbs, chief operating officer of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., which manages truck and rail shipments, said the company has seen demand fall off for big and bulky products, including appliances, furniture and exercise equipment—although off-price retailers with discounted inventory are shipping more.


Millberry和她的家人在买完杂货后整理物品。

33岁的Jazzlyn Millberry一直想办法大幅削减支出。去年秋天的一天，她的银行应用程序显示，她的四口之家一个月的日杂和家庭用品的费用已经从大约600或700美元上升到900美元。 6park.com
Jazzlyn Millberry, 33, has been looking for big ways to make cuts. One day last fall, her banking app informed her that the cost of one month’s groceries and household goods for her family of four had risen to $900, from about $600 or $700. 6park.com
  
Millberry说：“我发现自己现在为了买最优惠的商品以节省开支，会去三四家不同的日杂用品商店。”她是俄亥俄州匹克灵顿的一名医疗保险理赔分析师。 6park.com
“I find myself now going to three or four different grocery stores just to get the best deals on things to save on costs,” said Ms. Millberry, a health-insurance claims analyst in Pickerington, Ohio. 6park.com
  
她最近的一次出行去Kroger买了鸡蛋和肉类，在Aldi购买农产品，在山姆会员店(Sam's Club)买了孩子的零食，卫生纸则是在Target买的。 6park.com
On one recent outing, she stopped at Kroger for eggs and meat, Aldi for produce, Sam’s Club for her children’s snacks, and Target for toilet paper. 6park.com
  
她已削减了日杂用品、餐馆就餐、美容美发的支出，而同时过去几个月里她的信用卡欠款仍然在增加。她说，她开始只按最低还款额还信用卡欠款。 6park.com
Even as she has cut back on groceries, restaurants, hairstyling and facials, her credit-card balances have grown in the past several months. She said she started making only the minimum required payment on her credit cards.


Millberry离开一家Aldi。