Pfizer Bids Adieu to Covid Boom Years


随着新冠疫情带来的红利逐渐消失，辉瑞公司今年将调整方向。


图为辉瑞工厂。该公司预计今年的新冠相关销售额料将急剧下降。

随着新冠疫情带来的红利逐渐消失，辉瑞公司(Pfizer Inc., PFE)今年将调整方向。 6park.com
With its pandemic bonanza fading, Pfizer is pivoting this year. 6park.com
   
就在美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)宣布新冠疫情公共卫生紧急状态结束日期的同一天，辉瑞对投资者表示，今年的新冠相关销售额料将急剧下降。辉瑞周二预计，2023财年新冠相关产品的销售额料将下降到约215亿美元，大幅低于2022财年的567亿美元。由于这块业务的下滑，辉瑞预计整体销售额将从2022年创纪录的1,003亿美元下降到670亿至710亿美元之间。 6park.com
On the same day that President Biden announced an end date to the public-health emergency, Pfizer told investors to brace for a steep drop in Covid-19-related sales this year. The company on Tuesday projected sales from its Covid-19 products to decline to about $21.5 billion in 2023, down sharply from $56.7 billion last year. Thanks to that drop, the company says overall sales will fall to a range of $67 billion to $71 billion, down from a record $100.3 billion last year.  6park.com
  
辉瑞的新冠业务不会很快消失，但曾帮助这家药品巨头在两年内实现收入和市值翻倍的这块超额收益正在缩减，这促使投资者重新调整预期，等待辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla的增长计划成形发力。辉瑞股票今年已下跌约15%，在医药大盘股中表现最差。 6park.com
Pfizer’s Covid-19 business isn’t going away anytime soon, but the outsize earnings that helped double the giant drug company’s revenue and its market capitalization within two years are diminishing, forcing investors to press the reset button and wait for Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla’s growth plans to take shape. The stock is down by about 15% this year—the worst performance among large-cap pharmaceuticals.  6park.com
   
更有挑战性的是，辉瑞的盈利能力也将受挫，因为该公司今年需要花更多钱进行研发和商业推广，以推动非疫情业务的发展。辉瑞的财务预期是，2023年调整后的每股摊薄收益将下降约50%，至3.25-3.45美元，这远低于FactSet慧甚调查的分析师给出的平均预期。辉瑞首席财务官David Denton在周二的电话会议上告诉分析师，随着新产品带来收入，利润率在未来几年将会提高。 6park.com
Making matters more challenging, profitability is set to take a hit too because Pfizer needs to spend more money on research & development and on commercial launches this year to grow its non-Covid business. The company’s financial guidance is for adjusted diluted earnings per share to fall by about 50% to between $3.25 and $3.45 in 2023, well below consensus analyst estimates, according to FactSet. Chief Financial Officer David Denton told analysts during a call on Tuesday that  margins will improve in coming years as new product revenue kicks in.



今年之后新冠业务还能持续多久？这是一个相当有争议的话题。辉瑞已多次表示，由于正在从政府采购过渡到商业市场，2023年实际上会是一个低谷年，之后销售额将会有所反弹。该公司此前表示，在美国商业市场上，其新冠疫苗的价格将定在110-130美元/剂，较政府采购价格大大提高。此外，辉瑞公司称，一款新冠-流感联合疫苗有望获得批准，意味着接种辉瑞疫苗的人口比率将从目前的约25%上升至接近50%。华尔街对此持怀疑态度，预测随着新冠产品需求减弱，辉瑞疫苗的接种率将稳步下降。 6park.com
How durable the Covid-19 business will remain beyond this year is the subject of considerable debate. Pfizer has repeatedly stated that, due to the transition from government purchases to the commercial market, 2023 will actually be a trough year, with sales bouncing back. The company previously said it would charge $110 to $130 per dose of the vaccine in the U.S. commercial market, a significant increase from the price the government pays. Furthermore, the company says potential approval of a Covid-flu vaccination combo down the line means vaccination rates would rise from about 25% of the population now to closer to 50%. Wall Street is skeptical, forecasting a steady decline as demand for the Covid-19 products fade. 6park.com
  
辉瑞公司将进入一段艰难期，旗下其他畅销药物将面临竞争。虽然辉瑞的非新冠业务收入预计将在2023年增长7%-9%，但到2020-2030年的后期，该公司年收入中约有170亿美元将面临风险，原因是届时血液稀释剂Eliquis、乳腺癌药物Ibrance等重磅药物料将因专利到期而失去保护。 6park.com
That decline is coming at a difficult time as the company is set to face competition to its other top-selling drugs. While the non-Covid business is set to grow 7% to 9% in 2023, about $17 billion of annual revenue is at risk later this decade due to expected patent losses for key drugs such as blood thinner Eliquis and breast-cancer drug Ibrance.  6park.com
  
Bourla周二重申了在2030年之前推出15到19款新产品的计划，这些新产品的年销售总额可能达到200亿美元。他还说，最近宣布的交易意味着该公司在2030年之前通过收购创造250亿美元年收入的目标已完成40%。 6park.com
Mr. Bourla on Tuesday reiterated plans to launch 15 to 19 new products that could generate a total of $20 billion in annual sales by 2030. In addition, he added that recently announced deals mean the company is 40% of the way to getting to $25 billion in annual revenue through acquisitions by that same time frame.  6park.com
  
对于Bourla的这些预测，华尔街并未给与充分肯定。目前辉瑞公司股价已跌至约43美元，距离2020年初新冠疫情开始在美国蔓延以前的水平不远。不过此时不同于彼时，如今辉瑞有了新冠业务，虽然规模有所缩减，但未来几年这块业务还将持续，这使辉瑞当前的资产负债表比新冠疫情前要稳健得多，随着时间的推移，足以改变辉瑞的前景。 6park.com
Wall Street isn’t giving Mr. Bourla full credit for these projections. With the shares down to about $43, they aren’t far from where they were in early 2020, before Covid-19 started spreading in the U.S. The difference now, though, is that Pfizer has a Covid-19 business that, while diminished, will last for years to come, giving it a vastly stronger balance sheet with which to transform its prospects over time. 6park.com