Fed Slows Its Tightening With Quarter-Point Interest Rate Rise


美联储将短期利率上调25个基点，并暗示可能会在下个月的会议上再次上调利率；与此同时，美联储官员们在考虑今年春末是否以及何时暂停加息。


美联储主席鲍威尔列举了对抗通胀的进展，但补充说工作还没有完全完成。

美联储将短期利率上调25个基点，并暗示可能会在下个月的会议上再次上调利率；与此同时，美联储官员们在考虑今年春末是否以及何时暂停加息。 6park.com
The Federal Reserve nudged up short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled it was on track to do so again at its meeting next month while officials consider whether and when to pause increases late this spring. 6park.com
   
周三决定加息25个基点之前，美联储已连续六次以更大幅度上调基准的联邦基金利率，以应对去年创下40年高位的通货膨胀。去年12月和11月美联储分别加息50个基点和75个基点。 6park.com
The decision Wednesday to raise the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate followed six larger, consecutive increases to combat inflation, which hit a 40-year high last year. Officials raised rates by a half point in December and by 0.75 point in November. 6park.com
   
美联储官员同意放慢加息步伐，以获得更多时间来研究加息行动的效果。“我们正在讨论再加几次息，然后达到我们认为适当的限制性水平，”美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在政策会议后的新闻发布会上说。 6park.com
Officials agreed to slow rate rises to gain more time to study the effects of their moves. “We’re talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference after the central bank’s policy meeting. 6park.com
   
尽管有迹象表明工资和物价涨势几个月前可能已经触顶，但鲍威尔说：“我们将对宣布胜利保持谨慎，不会草率向外界发出我们认为已经打赢抗通胀之战的信号。” 6park.com
Despite signs that wage and price growth might have peaked several months ago, “We’re going to be cautious about declaring victory and sending signals that we think that the game is won,” he said. 6park.com
  
投资者对美联储的政策决定表示欢迎，标普500指数收盘上涨约1%，至4119.21点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨2%，至11816.32点。道琼斯指数上涨6.92点，至34092.96点。基准10年期美国国债收益率从前日的3.527%降至3.398%。债券价格上涨时收益率下降。 6park.com
Investors welcomed the decision, with the S&P 500 closing up about 1%, to 4119.21, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 2% to 11816.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.92 points to 34092.96. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined to 3.398% from 3.527% the previous day. Yields fall when prices rise.



在过去一年中，美联储将联邦基金利率从接近零提高到2007年以来的最高水平4.5%-4.75%区间，成为自20世纪80年代初以来美联储利率上升速度最快的加息周期。周三的加息意味着该央行不再像过去一年那么激进地收紧政策。 6park.com
The latest increase caps a year in which the Fed lifted the fed-funds rate from near zero to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, a level last reached in 2007, extending the central bank’s most rapid interval of rate increases since the early 1980s. 6park.com
   
鲍威尔和美联储官员也在努力避免让公众猜测将暂停加息。例如，他们在会后政策声明中维持去年3月以来的指引不变，称“持续上调”利率“将适宜的”。 6park.com
Mr. Powell and Fed officials tried not to feed speculation regarding a rate pause. For example, they left unchanged the guidance in their postmeeting policy statement that has said since last March that they anticipate “ongoing increases” in interest rates “will be appropriate.” 6park.com
  
但分析师说，政府债券投资者还是认为他们嗅到了暂停加息的气味，他们预计去年加息的累积效应下今年经济将大幅放缓。 6park.com
But government-bond investors thought they smelled a coming pause anyway, analysts said, because they expect the cumulative effect of last year’s rate increases to slow the economy sharply this year. 6park.com
   
“尽管发出的是偏紧缩信号，但市场依然强劲反弹，因为投资者知道，美联储并非全能全知，也不教条武断，”前美联储高级官员、现任PGIM Fixed Income首席全球经济学家的Daleep Singh说，“当美联储的决策取决于数据时，是经济状况说了算。” 6park.com
“Markets rallied fiercely despite the hawkish message because investors know the Fed isn’t omniscient nor is it dogmatic,” said Daleep Singh, a former senior Fed official who is now chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “Economic conditions are in charge when the Fed is in data-dependent mode.” 6park.com
   
自美联储去年12月份的政策会议以来，经济活动状况好坏参半。就业招聘保持稳定，12月份失业率降至3.5%，创下半个世纪以来的低位。 6park.com
Since Fed officials met in December, economic activity has been mixed. Hiring has held steady, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.5% in December, a half-century low. 6park.com
   
但消费支出已经放缓，制造业活动也在下降，这表明疲软迹象已蔓延至遭受重创的房地产行业之外的领域。Singh说：“市场基本上忽略了美联储会议，而是在对这些数据作出反应。” 6park.com
But consumer spending has moderated, and manufacturing activity has declined, an indication of weakness extending beyond the hard-hit housing sector. “Markets have essentially ignored the Fed meeting and are reacting to those data,” said Mr. Singh. 6park.com
  
联邦基金利率影响整个美国经济中的其他借贷成本，包括房贷利率、信用卡利率和汽车贷款利率。美联储上调利率是为了通过放慢经济增长速度来给通胀降温。美联储认为，这些政策举措通过收紧银根而在金融市场上发挥作用，比如提高借款成本或拉低股票和其他资产的价格。 6park.com
The fed-funds rate influences other borrowing costs throughout the economy, including rates on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The Fed is raising rates to cool inflation by slowing economic growth. It believes those policy moves work through financial markets by tightening financial conditions, such as by raising borrowing costs or lowering prices of stocks and other assets. 6park.com
   
最近几周，市场出现反弹，部分原因是投资者预计美联储本周将放慢加息步伐，并消除利率前景的不确定性，这将降低利率的波动性。利率波动幅度的降低可以促使银根放松。投资者还认为，如果美国经济急剧放缓，将导致美联储最迟今年年底降息。 6park.com
In recent weeks, markets have rallied partly because investors anticipated that the Fed would slow its rate increases this week and remove uncertainty regarding the rate outlook, which reduces interest-rate volatility. Lower volatility can ease financial conditions. Investors also think a sharp slowdown will lead the Fed to cut rates by year’s end. 6park.com
   
去年12月，大多数美联储官员预测联邦基金利率今年将上调至5%-5.25%，没有美联储官员预计会降息。这项预测意味着，在周三加息后，美联储将在今年3月和5月的会议上分别再加息25个基点，之后将暂停加息。 6park.com
In December, most Fed officials penciled in raising the fed-funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25% this year, with none projecting cuts. After the hike that they approved Wednesday, that projection would imply additional quarter-point increases at the Fed’s meetings in March and May, followed by a pause in rate rises. 6park.com
   
鲍威尔周三表示，在3月21-22日的下一次政策会议召开前，美联储决策者将根据新公布的招聘、通胀和增长数据来做决定以及对预测进行修订。 6park.com
Mr. Powell indicated Wednesday they would base their decisions and any revision to those projections on fresh reports of hiring, inflation and growth before their next meeting, March 21-22. 6park.com
  
鲍威尔表示：“确定性不适合用在当前这里。”他说：“我不会试图说服人们改变他们的预测，但我们的预测是，这将需要一些时间和一些耐心，而且我们将需要在更长时间内让利率保持在较高水平。” 6park.com
“Certainty is just not appropriate here,” said Mr. Powell. “I’m not going to try to persuade people to have a different forecast, but our forecast is that it will take some time and some patience, and that we’ll need to keep rates higher for longer.” 6park.com
   
鲍威尔和其他经济学家担心，近期通胀率下降可能反映的是长期以来期待的供应链瓶颈问题的缓解，但仅凭这一点可能不足以推动通胀率降到美联储设定的2%目标。 6park.com
Mr. Powell and other economists are concerned that the recent decline in inflation could reflect the long-anticipated easing of supply-chain bottlenecks—and that might not be enough to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal. 6park.com
   
曾在奥巴马(Obama)政府任职、现在哈佛大学(Harvard University)就职的经济学家Karen Dynan表示：“我有些担心，市场的看法更多的是基于期望。”她说：“可劳动力市场看起来仍然非常紧俏。” 6park.com
“I’m somewhat worried that the market view is based more on hope,” said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University who served in the Obama administration. “Labor markets still look really tight.” 6park.com
   
鲍威尔重申了他早先的观点，即劳动力市场紧俏将给薪资和物价带来持续上涨压力，尽管它们最近已有所缓和。鲍威尔还列举了有关美国经济可能颇具韧性的理由，比如用于建设项目的公共开支增加，还有随着今年价格上涨的放缓，经通胀因素调整后的薪资会出现增长。 6park.com
Mr. Powell repeated his earlier view that a tight labor market would keep upward pressure on wages and prices even though they have moderated recently. He also cited reasons the economy might prove resilient, including from an increase in public spending on construction projects and an increase in inflation-adjusted wages as price increases slow this year. 6park.com
   
麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)教授、前英国央行货币政策委员会(Monetary Policy Committee)成员Kristin Forbes称：“美联储关注的是最后关键一步，到目前为止，还没有足够的证据表明经济放缓将使通胀率降至2%。” 6park.com
“The Fed is focused on the last mile, and so far, there has not been enough evidence of a slowdown that will get inflation down to 2%,” said Kristin Forbes, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. 6park.com
  
整体通胀放缓主要是因为能源和其他商品价格正在下降。住房成本的大幅涨势已经放缓，但还没有体现到官方通胀指标中。因此，鲍威尔和几位同事最近转而关注一个范围较窄的子集，其中包括劳动密集型的服务，不包括食品、能源、住房和商品的价格。 6park.com
Overall inflation is slowing largely because prices of energy and other goods are falling. Large increases in housing costs have slowed, but haven’t filtered through to official price gauges yet. As a result, Mr. Powell and several colleagues shifted attention recently toward a narrower subset of labor-intensive services by excluding prices for food, energy, shelter and goods. 6park.com
  
以不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)同比变化衡量的通胀率从去年9月份的5.2%下降至12月的4.4%。尽管仍高于美联储2%的目标，但10-12月期间的同比升幅放缓到了2.9%。不过，12月以及10-12月非居住服务价格同比都上升了4%。 6park.com
Inflation fell to 4.4% in December from 5.2% in September, as measured by the 12-month change in the personal-consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy. Though still above the Fed’s 2% goal, it moderated in the October-to-December period to an annualized 2.9% rate. But prices in the narrow category of nonhousing services rose 4% in December over both the past year and at a three-month annualized rate. 6park.com
  
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席经济学家Ray Farris表示，美联储也许会继续发出信号，暗示其将在比市场预期更长的时间内将利率维持在更高水平，以防通胀再次回升或处在令人不安的高位。Farris称，这种姿态可能反映出，官员们在事后检讨时懊悔在2021年下半年等了太久才撤回刺激措施。 6park.com
Ray Farris, chief economist at Credit Suisse, said the Fed is likely to continue to signal it will hold rates at a higher level for longer than the market expects to prevent inflation from picking up again or settling at an uncomfortably high level. That posture could reflect officials’ regret, in retrospect, at waiting too long to withdraw reservoirs of stimulus in the second half of 2021, he said. 6park.com
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“他们不得不忍受自己把事情搞砸了的看法。接下来他们不能再搞砸了，”Farris说。“美联储不能处于这样一种境地：在通胀率处于3.5%时宣布胜利，结果系统中出现了一些随机的新冲击，推动整体通胀率回升到5%。” 6park.com
“They have to live with the perception that they blew it. And they can’t blow it on the way down,” said Mr. Farris. “The Fed cannot be in a position where it declares victory at 3.5% inflation, only to have some random new shock in the system push headline inflation back up to 5%.” 6park.com
  
鲍威尔确实已暗示，他仍然认为，相对于利率上调得过高并导致衰退的风险而言，不充分加息并放任通胀重新加速的情形更危险。鲍威尔表示，美联储可通过立即降息来应对衰退风险。 6park.com
Indeed, Mr. Powell suggested that he continued to see the risk of not raising rates enough and allowing inflation to reaccelerate to be more dangerous than raising rates too high and causing a recession. In the latter alternative, the Fed could react immediately by cutting rates, he said. 6park.com
  
鲍威尔称，放任通胀加速的错误将会更难应对，因其可能面临一段通胀更加根深蒂固的时期，那样的话最终将需要更严重的衰退才能打消消费者和企业对价格上涨的预期。鲍威尔表示：“我仍然认为，很难控制这样的风险，我们做得太少，却在6个月或12个月后发现，我们实际上已接近完成任务，但并没有完成，而通胀回升。” 6park.com
The first mistake would be harder to fix because it would risk a period of more entrenched inflation that would ultimately require a deeper recession to break consumers’ and business expectations of higher prices, he said. “I continue to think that it’s very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done and inflation springs back,” Mr. Powell said. 6park.com