Battery Metal Prices Fall Back to Earth


近几个月来，之前走势火爆的钴、锂价格已大幅下降。压力来自供需两方面：供应瓶颈正在缓解，与此同时，中国对电动汽车的需求以及全球对许多消费电子产品的需求已经减弱。


自11月以来，碳酸锂价格已经出现了21%的回调。

此前很长一段时间，电池制造商都在为获得足够的矿物供应发愁，但情况突然发生了转变。 6park.com
After a substantial stretch when battery makers were desperate for mineral supplies, the shoe is suddenly on the other foot.  6park.com
   
过去几个月，之前走势火爆的钴、锂价格已大幅下降。压力来自供需两方面：供应瓶颈正在缓解，与此同时，中国对电动汽车的需求以及全球对许多消费电子产品的需求已经减弱。钴价跌幅最大，根据Benchmark Mineral Intelligence的数据，2月份钴价比去年1月下降61%。碳酸锂价格曾在去年大部分时间迅速上涨，但自11月以来已大幅回落21%。 6park.com
In the past few months, previously red hot cobalt and lithium prices have cooled dramatically. The chill is coming from both sides: supply and demand. Supply bottlenecks are easing while China’s demand for electric vehicles, and global demand for many consumer electronics, have ebbed as well. 6park.com
   
中国去年12月削减电动汽车补贴是一个重要影响因素。根据标普全球(S&P Global)的数据，去年中国新能源车销量占全球此类汽车销量的64%。需求由此受到的打击已快速渗透到供应链上。根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据，中国的锂需求目前比三个月移动平均值低52%。从电池到实际车辆的产出都急剧放缓。即便如此，在今年欧美经济放缓的情况下，如果欧洲或美国买家忍住不买价格昂贵的大件，那么经历了两年快速增长的电动汽车供应有可能超过需求。 6park.com
China’s EV subsidy cut in December is a big factor: Chinese new energy vehicle sales represented 64% of global sales of such vehicles in 2022, according to S&P Global. That hit to demand has seeped back up the supply chain with remarkable speed. Chinese lithium demand is now 52% below its three-month moving average, according to Goldman Sachs.



就钴而言，另一个影响因素是人们越来越倾向于能量密度更高、价格较便宜的富镍电池，而非富钴电池。随着中国大陆的新能源车购置补贴政策去年终止，使用成本更高的富钴电池的电动汽车更难销售。不含钴、成本效益高的磷酸铁锂电池也重获青睐。 6park.com
For cobalt specifically, another factor is increasing preference for higher energy density, cheaper nickel-rich batteries—rather than cobalt-rich ones. With mainland China’s new energy vehicle sales tax exemptions ending last year, EVs using more expensive cobalt heavy batteries are a tougher sell. Cobalt free, cost-effective lithium iron phosphate batteries have also regained popularity.  6park.com
   
最近，无论是在中国还是在西方，消费类电子产品的需求都面临压力。此类产品的电池也使用钴。睿咨得能源(Rystad Energy)估计，在智能手机、平板电脑和笔记本电脑出货量骤减的情况下，用于消费类电子产品的锂钴氧化物电池的钴需求2022年至少下降了12%。 6park.com
Demand for consumer electronics, which also use cobalt in their batteries, has been under pressure recently both in China and the West. Rystad Energy estimates that cobalt demand from lithium cobalt oxide batteries, used in consumer electronics, dropped at least 12% in 2022 amid slumping shipments of smartphones, tablets and laptops.  6park.com
   
供应链瓶颈的缓解速度似乎也快于预期，这无疑部分归因于美国对新采矿和加工项目推出了非常强有力的激励措施。睿咨得能源认为，2023年钴矿产量将增长33%，锂产量将增长41%。 6park.com
Supply chain bottlenecks also appear to be easing quicker than expected—no doubt due in part to the very strong incentives for new mining and processing emanating from the U.S. Rystad believes cobalt mine output will jump 33% in 2023. And the consulting firm thinks lithium output will rise a full 41%.  6park.com
   
基于这样的数据，看起来价格似乎将进一步下跌。换言之，除非全球经济的三大引擎——美国、欧洲和中国——今年的增长都好于预期。 6park.com
With numbers like those, the stage looks set for a further fall in prices. That is, unless growth in all three of the world’s major economic engines—the U.S., Europe and China—surprises on the upside this year. 6park.com
   
尽管不应忽视颠覆性新技术的潜力，但至少锂需求的长期前景很可能仍然向好。无论如何，前路恐将崎岖不平。 6park.com
The longer run outlook for lithium demand, at least, probably remains bright—although the potential for new, disruptive technologies shouldn’t be discounted. Regardless, it could be a bumpy ride.