Falling French inflation boosts hopes of an end to eurozone rate rises


German bonds rally and euro falls against dollar as investors see ‘clear signs of disinflation’ in Europe. 6park.com
法国5月通胀率降至6%，西班牙以及德国部分地区的价格压力也有所缓解，但迹象表明欧元区其他成员国面对顽固通胀压力。



Annual inflation in France fell to 6 per cent, its lowest level for a year, boosting hopes that a swift easing of eurozone price pressures will allow monetary policymakers to stop raising interest rates soon. 6park.com
法国的年度通胀率降至6%，为一年来最低水平，这提振了人们的这样一个希望，即欧元区价格压力迅速缓解，将让货币政策制定者能够在不久后就停止加息。 6park.com
   
Coupled with falling German regional inflation and Spanish price growth also dropping more than forecast to almost a two-year low, the decline in French inflation in May lifted economists’ expectations that the European Central Bank may stop increasing rates by July. 6park.com
法国5月通胀率下降，加上德国部分地区通胀率下降，西班牙价格涨速也跌至近两年低点，而且降幅超出预期，这一切都强化了经济学家对欧洲央行(ECB)可能在7月停止加息的预期。 6park.com
   
Investors responded by scaling back their bets on how much higher the ECB will raise rates. Germany’s rate-sensitive two-year bonds rallied, while the euro fell 0.6 per cent against the dollar to $1.0675, its lowest level for more than two months. 6park.com
作为回应，投资者缩减了其对欧洲央行加息幅度的押注。对利率敏感的德国两年期债券上涨，而欧元对美元汇率下跌0.6%，至1欧元兑1.0675美元，为两个多月以来最低水平。 6park.com
   
“We now see clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone,” said Claus Vistesen, economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Investors should brace for a change in tune at next month’s meeting [of the ECB], setting the stage for the hiking cycle to end in July.” 6park.com
“我们现在看到欧元区出现明显的通胀放缓迹象，”研究机构万神殿宏观经济(Pantheon Macroeconomics)的经济学家克劳斯•维斯特森(Claus Vistesen)表示。“投资者应该为欧洲央行在6月会议上改变基调做好准备，那将为7月结束加息周期搭起舞台。” 6park.com
   
As energy and food prices soared last summer, the ECB raised its deposit rate by an unprecedented amount from a record low of minus 0.5 per cent. It is expected to increase the rate by another quarter percentage point to 3.5 per cent when it meets in two weeks. 6park.com
自去年夏天能源和食品价格飙升以来，欧洲央行已将其存款利率从-0.5%的历史低点进行了空前幅度的上调，预计将在两周后开会时再加息0.25个百分点，达到3.5%。 6park.com
   
Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the ECB, said on Wednesday that the latest data was “positive news”. But he pointed out that underlying inflation, which strips out energy and food prices, remained high, adding: “Has the battle been won? I would not say that.” 6park.com
欧洲央行副行长路易斯•德金多斯(Luis de Guindos)周三表示，最新数据是“积极的消息”。但他指出，剔除能源和食品价格后的核心通胀仍然偏高。“这场战斗打赢了吗？我不会那样说，”他补充道。 6park.com
   
There were signs of persistent price pressures in other parts of Europe’s 20-country single currency bloc. Italian inflation fell, but by less than expected, from 8.7 per cent in April to 8.1 per cent in May. Economists had expected it to fall to 7.2 per cent. 6park.com
有迹象表明，由20个欧洲国家组成的欧元区的其他成员国面对顽固的价格压力。意大利通胀率从4月的8.7%降至5月的8.1%，但降幅低于预期。经济学家们此前预计它会降至7.2%。 6park.com
   
Ignazio Visco, the governor of Italy’s central bank who sits on the ECB’s governing council, noted that core inflation was “still high”, after falling from 6.7 per cent in April to 6.5 per cent. The ECB had a “tough challenge” to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent target without causing an “excessive brake on consumption and investment”, he added. 6park.com
身为欧洲央行管理委员会成员的意大利央行(Bank of Italy)行长伊格纳齐奥•维斯科(Ignazio Visco)指出，核心通胀率——从4月的6.7%降至5月的6.5%——“仍然偏高”。他补充说，欧洲央行面临着“艰巨的挑战”，即在不对“消费和投资造成过度抑制”的情况下将通胀率压低至2%的目标。 6park.com
   
In Belgium, headline inflation fell to an 18-month low, but core price growth still accelerated from 8.3 per cent in April to 8.7 per cent in May. 6park.com
在比利时，整体通胀率降至18个月低点，但核心通胀率反而从4月的8.3%加速至5月的8.7%。 6park.com
   
Price pressures, however, eased more than expected in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous region, where inflation fell from 6.8 per cent in April to 5.7 per cent. Economists said this meant overall German inflation was also likely to drop more than forecast when national data was released on Wednesday afternoon. 6park.com
然而，在德国人口最多的地区北莱茵-威斯特法伦州(North Rhine-Westphalia)，价格压力的缓解幅度超过预期，该州的通胀率从4月的6.8%降至5月的5.7%。经济学家们表示，这意味着周三下午公布的德国整体通胀率也可能显示超出预期的下降。 6park.com
   
In France, price growth slowed in May across almost all areas except tobacco, according to the national statistics institute. Energy inflation fell from 6.8 per cent in April to 2 per cent in May, while food inflation dipped from 15 per cent to 14.1 per cent. Price growth in manufactured goods and services also eased. 6park.com
根据法国国家统计与经济研究所(INSEE)的数据，除烟草外，5月该国几乎所有类别的价格涨速都有所放缓。能源通胀从4月的6.8%降至5月的2%，而食品通胀从15%降至14.1%。制成品和服务的价格涨速也有所放缓。 6park.com
   
François Villeroy de Galhau, France’s central bank governor and ECB council member, said the fall in inflation from 6.9 per cent to below the 6.4 per cent level forecast by economists polled by Reuters was “a step in the right direction” and boosted his confidence that France would reach the 2 per cent target by the end of next year. Pantheon estimated that core French inflation fell from 4.7 per cent in April to 4.4 per cent in May. 6park.com
法国央行(Banque de France)行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员弗朗索瓦•维勒鲁瓦•德加洛(François Villeroy de Galhau)表示，通胀率从6.9%降至比路透(Reuters)调查的经济学家们所预测的6.4%更低的水平，是“朝着正确方向迈出的一步”，并让他更有信心认为，法国通胀率将最迟在明年底达到2%的目标。根据万神殿宏观经济的估计，法国核心通胀率已从4月的4.7%降至5月的4.4%。 6park.com
   
Eurozone inflation is expected to fall from 7 per cent in April to 6.3 per cent in May, when those figures come out on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 6park.com
根据路透对经济学家们的调查，周四公布的数据预计将显示，欧元区通胀率已从4月的7%降至5月的6.3%。 6park.com
   
But the ECB is focused on core inflation, which policymakers have said they want to see fall towards its 2 per cent target before they stop raising rates. This measure is expected to dip only slightly to 5.5 per cent in May. 6park.com
但欧洲央行聚焦于核心通胀率，政策制定者们表示，他们希望在停止加息之前看到核心通胀率跌向2%的目标。预计该指标在5月仅微幅降至5.5%。 6park.com