Super-Powered Labor Market Fights the Fed


债务上限方面的担忧现已消散，银行业问题拖累经济的风险似乎也在减弱，在此情况下，美联储仍将关注依然过高的通胀和远比其希望的更强劲的就业市场。


休闲和酒店业上个月增加了4.8万个岗位。

美国就业市场上空一直回荡着这样的论调：阳光很快就将不再灿烂，等着瞧吧。 6park.com
The job market keeps singing a tune from Bizarro Annie: “The sun will go down tomorrow, just you wait and see.” 6park.com
   
不过现在，阳光依然灿烂。美国劳工部上周五公布，经季节性因素调整后，上个月新增非农就业人数33.9万，远高于接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)调查的经济学家此前预期中的新增19万。此外，3月和4月本已不俗的新增就业人数数字总共向上修正了9.3万。 6park.com
For now, though, the sun is still shining. The Labor Department on Friday reported that the economy added a seasonally adjusted 339,000 jobs last month, far more than the 190,000 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected. The already solid employment figures from the prior two months were also revised up by a total of 93,000.



失业率从4月份 3.4%的超低水平升至3.7%，但很难视之为就业市场正在放缓的证据。非农就业人数数字基于对雇主的调查得出，失业率则是基于另一项对家庭的调查，后者的样本量相对较小。以这种家庭调查为依据的就业数据往往波动更大，此外，相关数据展现的5月下滑势头受累于前述雇主调查并不涵盖的领域，比如那些表示自己属于自雇群体或在私人家庭工作的人士。不考虑这些的话，这一基于家庭调查的指标所显示的情况从就业人数减少31万人变为增加39.4万人。 6park.com
The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from May’s superlow 3.4%, but it is difficult to see this as evidence that the job market is slowing. The unemployment rate is based on a separate survey of households, with a smaller sample size than the employer survey the jobs figures are based on. Not only do the household survey’s employment figures tend to be more volatile, the decline they registered in May came from areas not covered by the employer survey, such as people who said they were self-employed or worked in private households. Take those away, and the household-survey measure goes from showing a decline of 310,000 people employed to a gain of 394,000. 6park.com
   
与此同时，总体非农就业人数的增长是由服务业领域的增长推动的；服务业人员配置水平似乎仍低于疫情前的常态。休闲和酒店业新增4.8万个就业岗位，医疗健康业新增5.24万个。商品生产部门就业势头保持得还可以：制造业就业岗位小幅减少2,000个，而建筑业新增了2.5万个。 6park.com
Meanwhile, the gain in the headline jobs figure was driven by increases in service-sector areas where staffing levels appear to still be short of prepandemic norms. The leisure and hospitality sector added 48,000 jobs, while healthcare added 52,400. And employment in goods-producing sectors continues to hold up: The number of manufacturing jobs edged down by 2,000, while the construction sector added 25,000. 6park.com
    
这份报告传递的一个讯息是，3月硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)倒闭引发的银行业困境似乎仍未对就业市场造成太大影响。虽然自雇群体人数的下降可能表明人们更难获得贷款来启动他们的企业，但机构雇主似乎没在裁减人员。 6park.com
One message from the report is that the banking troubles kicked off by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March still don’t appear to be putting too much of a dent in the job market. While the decline in the number of the self-employed might indicate people are having a harder time securing loans to get their ventures off the ground, established employers don’t seem to be retrenching. 6park.com
    
此外，该报告出炉前，曾有预测者认为，一些暂时性因素也许会抑制5月数据。例如，高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家认为，由于劳动力市场紧俏，而且许多年轻人仍在上学，在夏季增加用工的企业招人会很困难。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的经济学家认为，劳工部用来平抑季节性波动的因素会拖累5月就业数字。尽管存在这些障碍，但5月就业报告仍显示出如此强劲的增长，并暗示6月份的报告也可能非常强劲。 6park.com
Moreover, before the report came out, some forecasters thought the May figures might be depressed by temporary factors. Goldman Sachs economists, for example, thought that with the labor market tight and many young people still in school, businesses that increase employment in the summer would struggle to hire. Morgan Stanley economists thought that the factors the Labor Department uses to smooth seasonal swings would push the job count lower. That the May employment report showed such strong gains despite those hurdles suggests the June report, too, could be very strong. 6park.com
    
就美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）的政策制定者而言，他们或许可以从前述失业率的上升中找到一点托词，本月晚些时候召开会议时似乎仍颇有可能维持利率不变。但债务上限方面的担忧现已消散，银行业问题拖累经济的风险似乎也在减弱，在此情况下，美联储仍将关注依然过高的通胀和远比其希望的更强劲的就业市场。到7月，政策制定者可能会再次加息。 6park.com
Federal Reserve policy makers, for their part, still seem likely to keep rates on hold when they meet later this month, perhaps taking a bit of cover from the rise in the unemployment rate. But with debt-ceiling fears now gone, and the risk that banking-sector problems will bleed the economy looking diminished, the central bank’s focus will stay squarely on inflation that is still too high and a job market that is running far stronger than it would like. By July, policy makers could be raising rates all over again. 6park.com
   
就业市场还未遭受重创，但这并不意味着美联储不能做到这一点。 6park.com
The job market hasn’t met its kryptonite yet, but that doesn’t mean the Fed can’t deliver it. 6park.com