This Bud’s for You: Time to Buy Anheuser-Busch InBev


跨国啤酒集团百威英博当前卷入了一场具有显着美国特色的纷扰。但对长期投资者来说，围绕百威英博旗下Bud Light的这场风波可能带来一个难得的买入机会。



跨国啤酒集团百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev, BUD)当前卷入了一场具有显着美国特色的纷扰。但对长期投资者来说，围绕百威英博旗下Bud Light的这场风波可能带来一个难得的买入机会。 6park.com
Global beer conglomerate Anheuser-Busch InBev finds itself caught up in a distinctly American uproar at the moment. But for long-term investors, the Bud Light brouhaha could be a rare buying opportunity.   6park.com
   
自4月初以来，该品牌与一位跨性别者权利倡导人士合作在社交媒体上开展的市场推广引发了激烈争议，导致了保守倾向消费者的抵制。Bud Light的产品销售受到严重影响，影响持续的时间也格外长： 据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份援引尼尔森(Nielsen)数据的报告，在截至5月20日的一周内，该品牌的美国国内零售较上年同期下降25.6%。Miller Lite和Coors Light显然是受益者，二者的销售在同一时期分别增长19.0%和23.3%。这两个品牌的所有者均为跨国啤酒商Molson Coors (TAP)， 是百威英博的一大国际竞争对手。 6park.com
The brand’s social-media promotion with a transgender advocate has generated intense controversy since early April, leading to a boycott among conservative-leaning consumers. The impact on Bud Light sales has been severe, and unusually long-lasting: In the week ending May 20, the brand’s domestic retail sales were down 25.6% from a year earlier, according to a Goldman Sachs report citing Nielsen data. Miller Lite and Coors Light are clearly benefiting, with their sales rising 19.0% and 23.3% over the same period, respectively. Both those brands are owned by international brewer Molson Coors, a leading international rival of AB InBev.



股市的反应也很明显：自3月底以来，百威英博股价累计下跌17.8%，Molson Coors股价则上涨23.6%。鉴于多个原因，股市反应看起来已经过度。例如，这似乎没有考虑到该公司的高度国际化性质；该公司是通过比利时、拉丁美洲和美国啤酒商之间的多次合并形成的，目前占到全球啤酒市场四分之一的份额。去年，其71%的收入来自北美以外地区。增长也一直来自于其他地区。即使是Bud Light风波之前，在2022年，北美地区的内生性销量也下降了4%，而其他所有地区都实现了增长。例如，在南美洲录得4.6%的增幅。 6park.com
The stock market’s reaction has also been unsubtle: Since the end of March, AB InBev shares are down 17.8%, and those of Molson Coors are up 23.6%. This looks excessive for multiple reasons. For one, it doesn’t seem to take into account the highly global nature of the company, which was formed through multiple mergers between Belgian, Latin American and American brewers, and now accounts for roughly one out of every four beers sold worldwide. Last year, 71% of its revenue came from outside North America. Growth has also been coming from other regions. In 2022, even before the Bud Light fracas, North America saw a 4% decline in organic sales volume while all other regions saw increases. South America grew by 4.6%, for example.  6park.com
    6park.com
在北美，该公司的产品组合远远不限于百威和Bud Light，还包括Michelob和Hoegaarden等品牌，以及Goose Island等微型酿酒厂品牌。在此，Bud Light也不是增长的动力。该公司曾表示， Michelob Ultra去年的销售增速为高个位数百分比。Michelob Ultra是一款低卡路里啤酒，其营销理念是与积极的生活方式相契合。 6park.com
Within North America, the company’s portfolio extends well beyond its Budweiser and Bud Light brands to labels such as Michelob and Hoegaarden, as well as microbrewery brands like Goose Island. Here again, Bud Light hasn’t been the growth driver. Michelob Ultra, a low-calorie beer marketed as fitting with an active lifestyle, increased sales in the “high-single digits” last year, the company has said. 



在5月4日的分析师电话会议上，百威英博首席执行官Michel Doukeris称，4月前三周Bud Light在美国的总体销售降幅相当于同期该公司全球销量的1%左右。这使得近18%的股票下跌幅度看起来确实很夸张。 6park.com
On a conference call with analysts May 4, AB InBev Chief Executive Michel Doukeris said the total retail sales decline in Bud Light over the first three weeks of April was equivalent to around 1% of global sales by volume over the period, making a nearly 18% stock decline look dramatic indeed. 6park.com
   
还要记住，像这样的争议往往会随着时间的推移而淡出美国的集体意识。过去几十年里，其竞争对手Coors曾因Coors家族秉持的一些政治立场而面临过来自左倾消费者的抵制呼声。据一位知情人士称，即使在Bud Light品牌永久受损的最坏假设情境下，百威英博也能轻而易举地将酿造产能重新分配给其他增长速度更快的美国品牌。 6park.com
Keep in mind, too, that controversies such as these tend to fade from the nation’s collective consciousness over time. In past decades, rival Coors faced calls for boycotts from left-leaning consumers for some of the political stances taken by the Coors family. Even in a worst-case scenario where the Bud Light brand is permanently tarnished, it would be “very easy” for AB InBev to reallocate brewing capacity to other American labels that were growing faster anyway, according to a person familiar with the matter. 6park.com
  
百威英博股票目前的预期市盈率为15.9倍，远低于过去10年逾20倍的平均市盈率。Bud Light的确已受到激烈抵制，但正是这种群情激昂的时刻，才会给头脑清醒的投资者带来机会。 6park.com
AB InBev shares now trade at 15.9 times forward earnings—far lower than their average multiple of over 20 times over the last 10 years. The severity of the backlash against Bud Light has been intense, but it is precisely such times of high emotion that can throw up opportunities for sober-minded investors. 6park.com