Where Is the U.S. Economy Headed? Follow the Money


尽管美国股市一派欣欣向荣，但向企业和消费者输送资金的债市却显示出紧张迹象。



股市接近一年来的高点，这让许多投资者感到安慰。但股市繁荣之下，债市正在利率上升的压力下步履蹒跚。 6park.com
The stock market is near a one-year high, giving many investors comfort. But down below, debt markets are creaking under the strain of rising interest rates. 6park.com
   
《华尔街日报》对公共和私人贷款数据的分析显示，今年春季，对企业、消费者和房地产开发商的贷款条件收紧到了新冠疫情高峰以来还未见过的水平。 6park.com
Lending conditions for companies, consumers and real-estate developers tightened this spring to levels not seen since the height of the Covid pandemic, an analysis of public and private lending data by The Wall Street Journal shows.  6park.com
   
华尔街的资金流动在冬季已经放缓，但最近的地区性银行危机使情况变得更糟。围绕债务上限的争论加剧了美国政府违约的风险，而一旦发生违约，全球债券市场将陷入混乱。 6park.com
The flow of cash on Wall Street was already slowing this winter, but recent turmoil in regional banks made it worse. Wrangling over the debt ceiling has ratcheted up the risk of a government default, which if it happens would tip global bond markets into chaos. 6park.com
   
资金流动放缓是美联储加息以对抗通胀的一个结果，这意味着现在美国企业和家庭可用于雇佣新员工、建造工厂和支付账单的资金变少了。 6park.com
The slowdown is a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-hiking campaign against inflation, and it means there is now less money available for U.S. businesses and households to hire new workers, build plants and pay the bills.


美联储在5月初再次加息，图为此后出现在电视中的美联储主席鲍威尔。

可以肯定的是，尽管人们几个月来一直在预测经济衰退，但它并没有到来。通常被分析师们用来衡量经济健康状况的就业数据表现强劲。 6park.com
To be sure, people have been predicting a recession for months, and it hasn’t come. Jobs numbers, which analysts commonly use to gauge economic health, are gangbusters. 6park.com
   
但是，在通常比较保守的债市，警告信号正在闪烁。债市将资金从银行和其他放贷者转移到企业和家庭。今春对商业房地产造成冲击的信贷紧缩可能是整体经济的一个先行指标。 6park.com
But warning signs are flashing in the typically more conservative debt market, which moves money from banks and other lenders to businesses and families. A credit crunch that hit commercial real estate this spring might be a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

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在过去的30年里，经济衰退与银行将其从储户那里吸收的存款放贷出去的意愿密切相关。根据美联储高级贷款官员的意见调查，银行家们正对消费者和企业的贷款以及商业房地产贷款收取更高的利率。他们还要求借款人提供更多的抵押物。 6park.com
Recessions over the past 30 years have closely tracked the willingness of banks to lend out the cash they collect from depositors. Bankers are charging higher interest rates on loans to consumers and corporations and for commercial real estate, according to the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey. They are also demanding that borrowers post more collateral. 6park.com
   
愿意承受风险的投资者正在寻找从中得利的方法。 6park.com
Investors willing to take the risk are finding ways to benefit.  6park.com
   
资金管理规模为3,600亿美元的基金管理公司Ares Management的另类信贷业务联合主管Joel Holsinger专门向那些有信贷差额的公司提供贷款，因为这些公司无法轻易从银行或债券投资者那里借款。他说，差额在最近几个月急速扩大。 6park.com
Joel Holsinger, co-head of alternative credit at $360 billion fund manager Ares Management, specializes in lending to companies that fall in a credit gap because they can’t easily borrow from banks or bond investors. The gap widened into a canyon in recent months, he said. 6park.com
   
"衰退和违约周期是健康的—— 他们是开启愈合过程的‘抗生素’，" Holsinger说。"这也为信贷投资者创造了一个机会。" 6park.com
“Recessions and default cycles are healthy—they’re the antibiotic that begins the healing,” Mr. Holsinger said. “It also creates an opportunity for credit investors.”



债券市场是美国借款人的另一个大型信贷池，对借款人来说，它也正变得更加昂贵，因为投资者愿意承受的风险降低。新的公司债券的销售量已经急剧下降。抵押贷款支持债券和由消费者贷款支持债券的销售也是如此。 6park.com
Bond markets, the other large pool of credit for U.S. borrowers, have also become much more expensive for borrowers because investors are taking less risk. Sales of new corporate bonds have plummeted. So have sales of mortgage-backed bonds and bonds backed by consumer loans.



那些需要通过借款来发展甚至是维持生计的公司已经别无选择。根据标普全球市场财智（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的数据，企业破产申请已经达到了2010年以来的最高值。 6park.com
Companies that need borrowed cash to grow, or simply to stay afloat, are running out of options. Corporate bankruptcy filings have hit their highest number since 2010, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.



金融压力在商业房地产领域最为突出。 6park.com
Financial stress has been most acute in commercial real estate. 6park.com
   
业主们正因利息支出增加而苦苦挣扎。他们从租户那里获得的收入也在减少，因为越来越多的员工居家办公，租户们不再需要那么大的办公空间。 6park.com
Landlords are struggling with higher interest expenses. They are also collecting less revenue from tenants who don’t need as much office space because more employees work from home. 6park.com
   
银行的放贷欲望也在降低。今年春季，商业抵押贷款中贷出的资金与房产价值的比例下降到30年来的最低点。 6park.com
Banks are losing their appetite. The ratio of money lent out, compared with property value, dropped to a 30-year low in commercial mortgages this spring. 


商业房地产的信贷紧缩可能是整体经济的一个先行指标。



纽约的房地产市场通常是具有韧性的，但Signature Bank的倒闭引发了该市场相关贷款的大幅下降。Signature Bank是纽约最大的房地产贷款机构，该行在3月份倒闭所带来的冲击可能预示着其他地区商业房地产贷款的收缩，因全美各地的银行也在回撤相关业务。 6park.com
The disappearance of Signature Bank triggered a big drop in lending in New York’s normally resilient real-estate market. Signature was a top real-estate lender in the city, and the aftershocks of its March collapse might portend contractions elsewhere as banks across the country also pull back.  6park.com
   
根据Maverick Real Estate Partners的数据，今年前四个月，纽约市新的商业抵押贷款发行量比2022年同期大幅下降。 6park.com
New commercial-mortgage issuance in New York City dropped sharply in the first four months of the year from the same period in 2022, according to Maverick Real Estate Partners. 6park.com
   
债券投资者也在撤退，同时在出借资金时要求获得更多回报。拥有AAA级信用评级（高于美国政府的信用评级）的商业抵押贷款支持债券的收益率比同期限美国国债高出近两个百分点。 6park.com
Bond investors are also backing away and demanding more money when they do lend. Commercial mortgage-backed bonds with triple-A credit ratings—higher than the U.S. government’s—pay nearly 2 percentage points more than comparable U.S. Treasury bonds. 

 6park.com


信贷紧缩正在向美国家庭传导。信贷科技平台、抵押贷款经纪人和其他非银行贷款机构正在缩减信贷，因为他们无法借到那么多钱，也因为他们预计拖欠贷款的情况马上就要增加。 6park.com
The credit squeeze is trickling down to U.S. households. Fintech lenders, mortgage brokers and other nonbank lenders are cutting back credit because they can’t borrow as much and because they see rising delinquencies on the horizon.


汽车贷款利率上升冲击了许多家庭。

 6park.com


与此同时，许多美国人正在耗尽他们在疫情期间积累的储蓄。当时政府发放了刺激性支票，而需要花钱的地方却变少。信用卡和汽车贷款利率上升冲击了许多家庭，而房贷利率攀升使一些人无法买房。 6park.com
At the same time, many Americans are draining the savings they built up during the pandemic, when the government sent out stimulus checks and there were fewer places to spend money. The higher interest rates on credit cards and auto loans have hurt many families, and higher mortgage rates have kept some from buying a home.  6park.com
   
更多的家庭开始拖欠债务。 6park.com
More households are starting to fall behind on their debt payments.