Is This ‘Recession’ in the Room With Us Now?


预言美国经济即将陷入衰退并不疯狂，但现在完全相信这一预测可能是疯狂的。


尽管所谓的焦虑指数上升，经济衰退并非即将到来。

关于美国经济即将陷入衰退的说法有其道理，而预言不会发生衰退也没有错。但是，现在过于相信其中任一预测很可能是行不通的。 6park.com
It is OK to say a recession is about to hit the U.S., and it is OK to predict one won’t. What probably isn’t OK is to put too much confidence in either forecast these days. 6park.com
   
有很多证据可以证明美国经济正处于衰退的边缘。例如，3个月期美国国债收益率远高于10年期美国国债收益率。从以往来看，这种收益率曲线倒挂的现象几乎总是预示着经济衰退。纽约联邦储备银行一个基于收益率曲线的模型认为，未来一年发生经济衰退的概率为71%。 6park.com
There is plenty of evidence with which to argue the U.S. is on the cusp of a downturn. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill, for example, is well above that on the 10-year Treasury note. In the past such yield-curve inversions have almost always augured a recession. Indeed, a yield-curve-based model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts the odds of a recession occurring over the next year at 71%.



此外，美联储匆忙大幅上调了利率目标，而且这轮加息周期可能尚未结束，放在过去这是经济衰退的另一前兆。融资成本在上升，鉴于最近银行系统出现裂痕，贷款机构正在收紧放贷标准。消费者信心指标处于低谷，企业利润正在下降。 6park.com
Meanwhile, in another precursor to past recessions, the Federal Reserve has raised its target on interest rates a lot in a hurry, and it might not be done. Borrowing costs are rising, and, with the recent cracks in the banking system, lenders are tightening standards. Consumer-confidence measures are in the gutter, and corporate profits are falling. 6park.com
    
然而，也有证据表明美国经济或许不会衰退。美国劳动力市场仍非常紧俏，上个月新增就业岗位33.9万个。而且，考虑到仍有大量职位空缺有待填补，美国似乎不会掀起大的裁员浪潮。医疗健康等一些行业仍在应对人手短缺局面。 6park.com
Then there is the evidence that a recession isn’t coming. The labor market remains extremely strong with 339,000 jobs added last month. And, considering the very large number of unfilled job openings still out there, it doesn’t seem as if the economy is about to start shedding workers. Some industries, such as healthcare, are still dealing with shortages. 6park.com
    
汽车行业获得所需半导体芯片和其他材料的难度下降，终于能够交付更多人们期盼已久的轿车、SUV和皮卡。轻型汽车的销售和生产因此上升。房地产行业似乎也已走出低谷，住房销售比去年年底有所改善，住房建筑商也变得更加乐观。这之所以重要，是因为汽车和住房行业的下滑通常是过去经济衰退的特点和主要促成因素。当这些行业上行时，很难想象经济会进入下行阶段。 6park.com
The automobile sector, finding it easier to obtain needed semiconductor chips and other materials, is finally able to deliver more of the cars, SUVs and pickup trucks people had been waiting for. Light-vehicle sales and production are rising as a result. The housing sector also looks as if it has moved past its nadir, with home sales picking up from the end of last year, and home builders becoming more optimistic. This matters because declines in the automotive and housing sectors typically have typically been features of, and major contributors, to past recessions. When they are on an upswing it is hard to see the economy going into a downswing.



一些经济衰退信号在一年多前就开始闪烁，现在看起来像是一些假警报。以所谓的焦虑指数(Anxious Index)为例：自20世纪60年代末以来，费城联邦储备银行每个季度都会询问预测者，他们认为GDP在接下来一个季度下降的可能性有多大。在新冠疫情暴发前，如果该指标达到20%，表明经济衰退即将到来的可能性较高。如果该指标达到40%，表明经济衰退很有可能发生。该指标在去年第二季度达到20%，在第四季度超过了40%。但到目前为止还没有出现经济衰退。 6park.com
Some recession signals started flashing more than a year ago and now look like false alarms. Take the so-called Anxious Index: In each quarter since the late 1960s the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has asked forecasters what they think the chances are that gross domestic product will decline in the following quarter. Before the pandemic, if it got to 20%, the chances a recession was coming soon were high. If it got to 40%, a recession was probably there. It hit 20% in the second quarter last year and cleared 40% in the fourth quarter. So far, no recession. 6park.com
   
焦虑指数的上升是中佛罗里达大学(University of Central Florida)经济预测研究所(Institute for Economic Forecasting)所长Sean Snaith一年前深信经济衰退即将到来的原因之一。去年6月，《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)就美国经济在未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性对经济学家进行调查时，Snaith说有99%的可能性，其他经济学家也几乎一样笃定。 6park.com
The rising Anxious Index was one reason Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, was convinced a year ago that a recession was coming. When The Wall Street Journal polled economists last June on the chances of the economy slipping into a recession within the next year, he said 99%, and others were nearly as confident. 6park.com
   
他指出，GDP在去年前两个季度出现萎缩。这种情况通常发生在经济衰退期间。但是，美国全国经济研究所(National Bureau of Economic Research)考察一系列指标，包括就业、收入和工业生产。在美国政府还未开始公布GDP数据的时候以来，该研究所就一直是判定美国经济是否衰退的机构。GDP数据也会进行修正：自1965年以来，有29个季度的GDP初值为下降，但现在其中有七个季度GDP是正增长，也有几个季度初值为增长，现在修正为下降。Snaith对于他对经济衰退的预测不那么有把握了：“眼下我感觉跟抛硬币差不多。” 6park.com
He notes that gross domestic product contracted in the first two quarters of last year, which usually happens during recessions. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, which has been the arbiter of U.S. recessions since before the U.S. government reported GDP, looks at an array of indicators, including employment, income and industrial production. GDP data are also subject to revisions: Of the 29 quarters since 1965 where GDP was initially reported to have declined, 7 are now in the positive column while several initially reported gains are now marked negative. Snaith is less sure about his recession call: “I’m down to a coin flip now.”



预测者过度自信并不是一个新现象。加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)哈斯商学院(Haas School of Business)教授Don Moore和该校的研究生Sandy Campbell发现，接受费城联储调查的经济学家一直过于相信他们的预测是准确的。这不仅仅是经济学家的问题。“身为人类的我们想获得确定性，”Moore说。“可事实却是，我们生活在一个高度不确定的概率世界里。” 6park.com
Overconfidence among forecasters isn’t a new phenomenon. Don Moore, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, and Sandy Campbell, a graduate student there, have found that the economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed have consistently been too convinced that their forecasts are accurate. It isn’t just economists. “As human beings, we want to be certain,” says Moore. “The truth is we live in a highly uncertain, probabilistic world.” 6park.com
   
不过，如果说有哪个时刻需要针对经济预测设置更大的误差值区间，那就是现在了。人们可以轻而易举地谈论经济衰退即将到来，也可以同样轻松地阐述完全相反的情境，这反映出在疫情带来各种各样的扭曲之后，美国经济已变得多么不正常。 6park.com
If ever there were a moment to put bigger error bars on economic forecasts, though, now would be it. The ease with which one can tell a story about how a recession is coming, and with which one can tell the opposite story, is a reflection of how out of whack the economy is after all the distortions the pandemic introduced. 6park.com
   
而问题在于种种描述都可能显得很有说服力，其自信程度堪比由ChatGPT生成的学生论文。对将要发生的事情如果不表达出肯定的态度，会让讲述者的言论显得很不靠谱。但对于那些需要在经济衰退风险和持续扩张机会之间找到平衡的人来说，可能还是有必要鼓足勇气说出那个难以启齿的四个字——“我不知道”。 6park.com
The problem is those stories can be so convincing, told with the confidence of a student essay generated by ChatGPT. It can seem wishy-washy to not express certainty about what will happen. But for those who need to balance the risks of recession with the opportunities of continued expansion, a willingness to utter a hard-to-say three-word sentence might still be in order: “I don’t know.” 6park.com