Treasury’s $1 Trillion Debt Deluge Threatens Market Calm


美国债务上限之争过后，投资者正准备应对超过1万亿美元的美国国债发售洪流，这可能会引发金融市场的新一轮波动。


在达成债务上限协议后，美国财政部正在迅速充实财政收入。

美国债务上限之争过后，投资者正准备应对超过1万亿美元的美国国债发售洪流，这可能会引发金融市场的新一轮波动。 6park.com
Investors are bracing for a flood of more than $1 trillion of Treasury bills in the wake of the debt-ceiling fight, potentially sparking a new bout of volatility in financial markets.  6park.com
   
华尔街的一些人担心，在债务上限协议通过之前被搁置的大约8,500亿美元债券发售将让买家难以招架，导致市场震荡并推高短期借款成本。据摩根大通(JPMorgan)的分析师称，这部分债券预计会在目前到9月底之间发售。 6park.com
Some on Wall Street fear that roughly $850 billion in bond issuance that was shelved until a debt-ceiling deal was passed—sales expected between now and the end of September, according to JPMorgan analysts—will overwhelm buyers, jolting markets and raising short-term borrowing costs. 6park.com
   
几乎没有人预计会出现严重动荡，但许多人担心，这一每天进行数万亿美元交易的金融管道可能会出现无法预见的问题，这可能会在各个市场掀起波澜。很多人还记得2019年流动性低迷时期货币市场利率飙升迫使美联储进行干预的情景。 6park.com
Few expect major upheaval, but many worry about the potential for unforeseen problems in the financial plumbing—where trillions of dollars worth of transactions occur daily—that could send tremors throughout markets. Many remember how money-market rates skyrocketed in 2019 during a period of low liquidity, necessitating intervention by the Federal Reserve.   6park.com
   
“当你在市场大量发售债券时，会造成混乱，”Global X的首席投资官Jon Maier说。“投资者目前低估了这一点。”Global X是一家ETF公司。 6park.com
“When you dump a tremendous amount of debt into the market, it causes dislocation,” said Jon Maier, chief investment officer of Global X, an exchange-traded fund provider. “Investors are underestimating that.” 6park.com
   
近几个月来，市场一直相对平静。标普500指数今年已经上涨了11%，这得益于劳动力市场充满韧性、AI引领科技股反弹，并且有迹象显示美联储正步入加息行动的最后阶段。CBOE波动率指数目前徘徊在多年低点，其衡量的是投资者经常用来对冲股票下跌的期权价格，因此被称为华尔街恐慌指数。 6park.com
In recent months, markets have been relatively placid. The S&P 500 has gained 11% this year, buttressed by a resilient labor market, the AI-led tech stock rally, and signs that the Federal Reserve is entering the final stages of its interest-rate campaign. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge because it measures the price of options that investors often use to protect against stock declines, is now hovering at multiyear lows.



由于预期美联储将在更长时间里保持利率在更高水平，短期债券收益率在最近几周已经跳升，但即便如此，市场仍是相对平静。两年期美国国债收益率周三收于4.548%，较一个月前触及的年内低点上升了逾0.8个点。10年期美国国债收益率周三收于3.782%。 6park.com
The calm comes even as short-term bond yields have already jumped in recent weeks, lifted by expectations for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. The two-year yield finished Wednesday at 4.548%, up more than 0.8 point from its year-to-date lows seen a month ago. The 10-year ended at 3.782%. 6park.com
   
现在美国财政部正在迅速充实财政收入。鉴于这个税收季的收入低于预期，并且在债务上限之争期间为继续支付政府账单而采取了“非常措施”，截至5月底，财政部在美联储开设的账户里的资金已消耗至500亿美元以下。官员们最近说，目标是让财政部在美联储的一般账户(TGA)余额达到6,000亿美元。 6park.com
Now the Treasury Department is rapidly replenishing its coffers. A weaker-than-expected tax season, coupled with “extraordinary measures” enacted during the debt-ceiling fight to keep paying the government’s bills, has drained its checking account held at the Fed to below $50 billion as of the end of May. Officials last said it was targeting a balance of $600 billion for what’s known as the Treasury General Account, or TGA. 6park.com
   
这或许会让一些得按照一项与政府的协议在拍卖会上投标美国国债的大银行承压，此类所谓一级交易商可能实际上要被迫为财政部补充TGA而提供资金支持。与此同时，监管机构正寻求提升银行的现金缓冲，以避免另一场银行危机。进一步从市场抽走流动性的美联储正允许自己的资产负债表收缩。 6park.com
That could weigh on the large banks that are required to bid for Treasurys at auction through an agreement with the government as the so-called primary dealers could be effectively forced to finance the replenishment of the TGA. At the same time, regulators are seeking to boost banks’ cash buffers to avoid another banking crisis. Further draining liquidity from markets, the Fed is allowing its balance sheet to shrink. 



不过，即使银行从短期融资市场撤出，从历史经验看，美联储官员也会迅速灭火。2019年9月，美联储推出了一项为银行提供现金的安排，尽管当时利率飙升的原因并未明确。这项安排几乎是立即压低了利率，现在作为一项长期保障措施存在，以帮助美联储维系对利率的控制。 6park.com
But even if banks pulled back from short-term funding markets, history suggests Fed officials would quickly extinguish any fires. In September 2019, the central bank unveiled a facility to provide banks with cash even though the rate spike’s cause was unclear. That facility, which brought down rates almost immediately, now exists as a permanent safeguard to help maintain the Fed’s rein on rates.  6park.com
   
"那种未经核实的意外事件导致金融管道堵塞，"RSM US的首席经济学家Joseph Brusuelas说。“这并不意味着末日论者是正确的。如果发生堵塞，美联储将介入。” 6park.com
“It’s that unintended, unexamined, event that causes a clogging up of the financial plumbing,” said Joseph Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US. “That doesn’t mean the doomsayers are right—if a hiccup occurs, the Fed will step in.” 6park.com
   
一些分析人士称，在3月份地区性银行业恐慌中针对有风险的银行制定的最新计划，重申了美联储向银行系统施以援手的意愿。 6park.com
The latest program for at-risk banks, created during the March regional banking panic, reiterated the Fed’s willingness to come to the banking system’s aid, some analysts said.  6park.com
   
一级交易商今年4月向美国财政部表示，“有足够空间来迅速增加债券供应量”，这些交易商提到，货币市场基金资产和美联储的隔夜逆回购机制能够吸收增加债券供应带来的冲击。一名美国财政部的发言人说，在之前的债务上限之争过后，财政部已重建了现金缓冲。 6park.com
Primary dealers told the Treasury Department in April that “there is ample scope to expeditiously increase the supply of bills,” citing money-market fund assets and the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility, known as reverse repo, as shock-absorbers. A Treasury spokesperson said the agency has rebuilt its cash buffers after previous debt-limit episodes. 6park.com
   
策略师认为，这将是最好的情况。货币市场基金可以作为这一轮债券发行的主要融资方，利用其逾5万亿美元的短期安全资产来限制对整体市场造成的任何冲击；这些资产中有2.2万亿美元存放在美联储的逆回购机制中。 6park.com
That would be the best-case scenario, according to strategists. Money-market funds could step up as the primary financiers of this round of bond issuance, using their more than $5 trillion in short-term safe assets—$2.2 trillion of which is parked at the Fed’s reverse repo —to limit any blow to broader markets.



但为此，政府需要通过提供更高的短期国债收益率来吸引资金离开美联储的高度安全的逆回购机制。美国财政部2020年4月发行逾1.3万亿美元此类债券时，3个月期国债利率在有抵押隔夜融资利率(SOFR)上方进一步升高0.20个百分点；后者是隔夜贷款的一个关键基准利率。 6park.com
To make that happen, however, the government needs to attract them away from the Fed’s highly safe daily facility by offering higher yields on T-bills. When the Treasury issued more than $1.3 trillion of those bonds in April 2020, rates on 3-month bills rose 0.20 percentage point above the secured overnight financing rate—SOFR—a key benchmark for overnight lending.  6park.com
   
据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师称，这一次，短期国债收益率可能在SOFR上方进一步升高0.10至0.15个点，但不太可能出现幅度更大的上升。分析师说，这次发行是在市场缺乏美联储支持的情况下进行的，这有可能导致这一对比出现更加不利的局面。 6park.com
According to Deutsche Bank analysts, bill yields could widen 0.10 to 0.15 point above SOFR this time around but are unlikely to go higher. Potentially complicating the comparison, analysts say, is this issuance comes at a time when markets lack the central bank’s support. 6park.com
   
鉴于美联储在逆回购利率机制中提供5.05%的利率，美国政府可能会陷入以接近6%的利率借入超过1万亿美元的境况。财政部数据显示，一年半之前，美国政府可以在同一市场上以0.1%的利率借款。如果美联储上调联邦基金利率目标区间，逆回购利率会随之提高。 6park.com
Given the Fed offers 5.05% at its reverse repo rate facility—which would increase if it upped the fed-funds target range—the U.S. government could be stuck borrowing more than $1 trillion at rates approaching 6%. A year-and-a-half ago, the U.S. could borrow in the same market for 0.1%, Treasury Department data show. 6park.com
   
美国财政部长耶伦(Janet Yellen)曾警告国会称，政府因债务上限不确定性而增加的资金成本令人担忧。现在，尽管债务上限协议已经达成，债券发行的庞大规模可能会推高这些成本。 6park.com
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress that the government’s increased funding costs due to debt-ceiling uncertainty gave cause for concern. Now, the sheer size of issuance is likely to drive up those costs, even with the debt-ceiling deal completed.  6park.com
   
但并非所有人都认为发行会引发市场动荡。 6park.com
But not everyone sees the issuance triggering market turbulence.  6park.com
  
Clocktower Group的首席策略师Marko Papic说：“任何一次性的、复杂玄妙的货币政策管道问题都会很快得到解决。” 6park.com
“Anything that’s a one-off, complicated arcane monetary-policy plumbing issue gets resolved rather quickly,” said Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group. 6park.com