Chinese Junk Bonds Are Back on the Trash Heap


今年早些时候，万达的发债交易曾给亚洲垃圾债券市场带来一线生机，但后来该公司信用评级被下调，这些债券价值大跌。


万达今年早些时候发行的债券价值缩水约一半。万达在中国多地经营购物中心。

回过头来看，当时只是虚幻的曙光。 6park.com
It was a false dawn, in hindsight. 6park.com
   
今年早些时候，亚洲垃圾债券市场曾短暂出现生机，一家中国公司在1月份发行了4亿美元的债券，一个月后又发售了第二只债券。万达(Wanda)的这两笔交易给人们带来了希望，认为曾经热闹的亚洲垃圾债市场开始恢复健康。 6park.com
Asia’s junk-bond market had a brief flicker of life earlier this year, when a Chinese company sold a $400 million bond in January, and a second bond a month later. Wanda Properties’ two deals raised hopes that a once-busy market was starting to return to health. 6park.com
    
四个月后，万达的评级被大型信用评级公司下调，该公司最近发行的债券价值缩水约一半，而且期间没有其他中国公司发售过高收益债券。 6park.com
Four months later, Wanda has been downgraded by major credit-rating companies, its recently issued bonds have lost around half of their value and no other Chinese company has sold a high-yield bond.  6park.com
   
“情况真的很糟糕，”Robeco亚洲固定收益主管Thu Ha Chow谈到中国房地产开发商发行的垃圾债市场时说。“回想一下全球金融危机时的情况。那时候都没有现在这么混乱。当时还有双向波动，现在感觉像是朝着一个方向不回头。”中国房地产开发商曾是亚洲最大的垃圾债券供应来源。 6park.com
“It’s really bad,” said Thu Ha Chow, head of Asian fixed income at Robeco, about the market for junk bonds sold by Chinese property developers, once the biggest source of supply in Asia. “Think back to the global financial crisis. That wasn’t as messy as this. There was two-way action then, but this feels like things are moving in one direction.” 6park.com
   
中国企业的发行规模在亚洲垃圾债券市场曾是最大的，但过去两年，在中国房地产开发商发生一连串违约事件，使投资者蒙受巨大损失后，中国公司的债券发售已大幅下滑。根据Dealogic的数据，中国公司去年发行的美元垃圾债券降至5.73亿美元，而2019年则超过580亿美元。 6park.com
Chinese companies once dominated volumes in Asia’s junk-bond market, but their bond sales have dived over the last two years, following a string of defaults by Chinese property developers that saddled investors with large losses. Issuance of dollar junk bonds by Chinese companies fell to $573 million last year, compared with more than $58 billion in 2019, according to Dealogic. 



根据ICE BofA的数据，过去24个月里，这些美元债券的总回报率有18个月的时间为负。目前中国垃圾债券的平均价格约为面值的55%。 6park.com
Total returns on these dollar bonds have been negative for 18 of the past 24 months, according to ICE BofA data. The average price of Chinese junk bonds is currently about 55 cents on the dollar.  6park.com
   
过去五年中，亚洲垃圾债券大部分来自中国公司，其中许多是房地产开发商。根据ICE BofA的数据，截至6月5日，一个衡量中国公司垃圾债表现的指数平均收益率接近22.17%，接近今年以来的最高水平。 6park.com
The majority of Asian junk-bond supply over the past five years came from Chinese companies, many of them property developers. As of June 5, the average yield on an index of junk bonds sold by Chinese companies was almost 22.17%, near its highest level this year, according to ICE BofA data. 6park.com
   
去年11月中国政府采取了多项措施来应对房地产放缓，包括放宽对房企债务的限制以及鼓励银行放贷。这给房地产市场带来了短暂的提振，但没有解决房企面临的问题。 6park.com
China’s government took steps to address the property slowdown last November, including by easing restrictions on debt in the sector and encouraging banks to lend. That gave a temporary boost to the market, but the sector’s problems haven’t gone away. 6park.com
   
今年3月，中国房地产企业远洋集团(Sino-Ocean Group Holdings Ltd., 3377.HK)表示，将推迟支付一笔本金为6亿美元的永续债券的利息。其债券一度跌破面值的30%，不过远洋集团最终表示支付了这些票息。5月，总部位于广州的开发商合景泰富集团(KWG Group Holdings Limited, 1813.HK)表示，未按时偿付一笔境内债券触发了其美元债的违约。 6park.com
In March, Chinese property company Sino-Ocean Group said it would delay an interest payment on a $600 million perpetual bond. The company’s bonds crashed to below 30 cents on the dollar, although Sino-Ocean eventually said it repaid the funds. In May, KWG Group Holdings, a Guangzhou-based developer, said a failed payment on a domestic bond had triggered a default on its dollar debt.  6park.com
   
中国平安资产管理（香港）有限公司(Ping An of China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co.)的固定收益投资组合经理王冬辰说，要投资中国房地产开发商发行的垃圾债券，关键是要挑选出能存活下来的开发商。他表示，所以投资者不仅要去楼盘现场考察，还要了解当地政府、为开发商提供资金的银行和监管机构对开发商财务状况的看法。 6park.com
The key for investors in junk bonds issued by Chinese property developers is to pick the survivors, said Dongchen Wang, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Ping An of China Asset Management (Hong Kong). He said this requires investors not only visit property sites, but understand how local governments, banks that fund developers and regulators view the financial status of the developer. 6park.com
   
但另一些投资者表示，在中国房地产市场持续动荡的情况下，有可能存活下来的开发商的名单正在缩小。 6park.com
But other investors said the list of likely survivors from the continuing turmoil in China’s property market is shrinking.  6park.com
   
联博(AllianceBernstein)的投资经理Diwakar Vijayvergi表示，投资者现在认为，一些开发商的流动性可能比预期的还要差。他说，投资者以前认为能够存活下来的开发商可能没法活下来。 6park.com
“Investors now believe that the liquidity for some developers could be worse than expected,” said Diwakar Vijayvergia, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein. “Developers that investors thought would survive, may not.” 6park.com
    
中国经济前景的恶化正在加剧这种痛苦。经济学家和投资者此前曾预测，动态清零防疫政策的取消将带来中国经济活动的快速反弹。今年年初，支出确实出现过一轮短暂的大幅攀升，但最近的社会消费品零售总额、工业增加值和固定资产投资数据都没有达到经济学家的预期。中国的制造业活动也出现下滑。 6park.com
China’s worsening economic outlook is exacerbating the pain. Economists and investors had predicted that the end of zero-Covid would lead to a rapid bounce in economic activity. There was a brief surge in spending at the start of this year, but recent data on retail sales, factory production and fixed-asset investment has missed economists’ expectations. Manufacturing activity has also fallen.



万达在1月和2月发债时，投资者正期待该公司的一个子公司在香港上市，筹集资金帮助其偿还债务。不过，这桩上市交易尚未获得中国监管机构的批准，监管机构要求该公司提供更多关于如何管理其债务的细节。 6park.com
When Wanda Properties sold bonds in January and February, investors were expecting one of the company’s subsidiaries to list in Hong Kong, raising money that would help it pay back debt. But the listing has yet to be approved by Chinese regulators, which have asked the company for more detail on how it will manage its debt. 6park.com
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据惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)称，如果万达不能将这个子公司上市，则将被迫向小股东退还超过50亿美元的上市前投资。大连万达商业管理集团股份有限公司(Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group)未回应置评请求。财务顾问在营销材料中称该公司是之前两笔债券的实际发行人。 6park.com
If Wanda can’t list its shares, it will be forced to refund more than $5 billion of pre-IPO investments to minority shareholders, according to Fitch Ratings. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group, which bankers marketed as the effective issuer of the earlier bonds, didn’t respond to a request for comment.  6park.com
   
万达的债券自发行以来已被信用评级公司惠誉国际评级和穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)下调了评级。这意味着这两家评级公司认为这些债券现在发生违约的可能性更大了。标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)下调了为这些债券提供担保的一家子公司的评级。万达在中国多地经营购物中心。 6park.com
The bonds sold by Wanda Properties, which operates shopping malls across China, have been downgraded by credit-rating companies Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service since they were issued. That means these companies think the bonds are now more likely to default. S&P Global Ratings has downgraded a subsidiary that was guaranteeing the bonds.  6park.com
   
一些美元债券发生违约的开发商已经与境外债券持有人达成了债务重组协议，其中包括曾是全球最大房地产公司之一的中国恒大集团(China Evergrande Group, 3333.HK, 简称：中国恒大)。不过，这些重组对垃圾债券市场产生的提振作用不及投资者所望。根据Tradeweb的数据，恒大2025年到期的美元债券交易价格约为面值的6%。 6park.com
Some developers that have defaulted on dollar bonds have come to an agreement with offshore bondholders to restructure debt, including China Evergrande Group, once one of the world’s largest property companies. However, the restructurings haven’t boosted the junk-bond market as much as investors had hoped. Evergrande’s dollar bonds due in 2025 are trading around 6 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb.  6park.com
   
Vijayvergia表示：“投资者对该行业复苏的信心非常、非常弱，人们认为，即使是新的资本结构也可能不可持续。” 6park.com
“Investor beliefs of a recovery within the sector are very, very weak, and people think that even the new capital structure may not be sustainable,” Vijayvergia said. 6park.com
   
一些投资者干脆决定持币观望。Brandywine Global Investment Management的基金经理Tracy Chen说，她今年没有投资房地产开发商发售的债券，她仍在观望该行业的复苏情况如何。 6park.com
Some investors have simply decided to sit it out. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said she hasn’t been investing in bonds sold by property developers this year, and is still waiting to see how the recovery will play out for the sector. 6park.com
   
一些投资者寄望于中国有关部门采取措施促进房地产行业发展。这在地方层面已经开始：山东省青岛市上周宣布了几项放松房地产市场政策的措施。 6park.com
Some investors are hoping Chinese authorities will take steps to boost the property sector. That has already started on the local level: Qingdao, a city in Shandong province, announced several measures to ease the property market last week.  6park.com
   
但野村(Nomura)分析师警告投资者，不要指望中国政府会出台全面的扶持措施。这些分析师预测，中国政府将采取较为零散的方法，这可能会帮助市场，但不会显着扭转局面。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师们已预测会有更多宽松政策出台，但表示房地产行业的复苏将“缓慢且坎坷”。 6park.com
But analysts at Nomura have warned investors not to expect a comprehensive package of support from China’s government. They instead predict a more piecemeal approach, which could help the market but not drastically turn it around. Goldman Sachs analysts have predicted more easing, but said the recovery of the property sector will be “gradual and bumpy.” 6park.com