Investors Go Cold on Food Stocks


投资者对包装食品公司股票的态度突然冷淡了。其中一项主要担忧是，这些股票从价格涨势中获得的助力可能很快就会结束。


金宝汤的股价周三下跌，该股今年迄今已大幅下挫。

投资者对包装食品公司股票的态度突然冷淡了。其中一项主要担忧是，这些股票从提价中获得的助力可能很快就会消退，驱动这波提价的因素首先是疫情期间需求激增，其次是对投入成本通胀做出反应。 6park.com
Appetite for shares in packaged-food companies has suddenly soured. A key concern is that the tailwind they have gotten from hiking prices, first as demand surged during the pandemic and then again in response to input inflation, could soon end.  6park.com
   
斯味可公司(J.M. Smucker Co., SJM)和金宝汤(Campbell Soup Co., CPB)本周都公布了表面看起来乐观的季度业绩。斯味可称，在截至4月份的第四财季，内生性销售额（剔除资产剥离和汇率波动的影响）较上年同期增长了11%。该项指标和每股收益均超出分析师预期。金宝汤表示，第三财季内生性销售额增长了5%，与预期一致，并报告称，受上年同期一些一次性因素影响，每股收益下降，但仍符合分析师的预期。 6park.com
J.M. Smucker and Campbell Soup both reported quarterly results this week that on the surface looked positive. Smucker said organic sales—excluding the impact of divestitures and currency movements—rose 11% from a year earlier in its fiscal fourth quarter ended in April. That and its earnings per share were both ahead of analyst estimates. Campbell said organic sales rose 5% in its fiscal third quarter, in line with estimates, and reported an earnings-per-share decline due to some one-time factors in the year-earlier period that was nonetheless in line with analyst expectations. 6park.com
   
但是投资者却纷纷抛售这些股票，斯味可股价在周二发布财报后下跌了1.8%，金宝汤周三早间发布财报后股价下跌逾5%。在2022年取得强劲回报后，这两只股票今年迄今已大幅下挫。 6park.com
But investors spat out the shares, sending Smucker down 1.8% after its report on Tuesday, and Campbell down more than 5% early Wednesday following its results. Both were already down significantly so far this year after posting strong returns in 2022. 



金宝汤首席执行官Mark Clouse将公司的零食部门表现描述为“火力全开”，该业务第四财季内生性销售额增长了12%，利润率也在扩大。但担忧主要集中在汤品销售上，美国汤品销售同比下降11%。Clouse在与分析师的电话会议上说，这主要是由于上年同期的比较基数较高，当时金宝汤的供应链正在恢复并在积极补充零售商的库存。 6park.com
Campbell Chief Executive Mark Clouse characterized the company’s snacks division as “on fire,” seeing 12% organic-sales growth and expanding margins in the quarter. But concerns were centered on soup sales, which in the U.S. fell 11% on the year. This was largely due to a high base for comparison in the year-earlier quarter, when Campbell’s supply chains were recovering and it was aggressively restocking inventory at retailers, Clouse said on a conference call with analysts. 6park.com
   
然而，该公司表示，代表零售商对消费者终端销售的“场内表现”在第四季度仍然基本持平。由于金宝汤在此期间大幅提价，这表明销量有所下降。Clouse说，该公司核心产品的市场份额仍在增加，比如金宝汤的Chunky系列和旗下四种最畅销的浓缩汤品，但其他外围产品的份额正在减少，比如价格较高的Healthy Request汤品系列。 6park.com
Yet “in-market performance,” meaning end-sales by retailers to consumers, was still basically flat in the quarter, the company said. Because Campbell has raised prices significantly over the period, this suggests that unit volumes declined. Clouse said the company is still gaining share in core products such as the Campbell’s Chunky line and its four most popular condensed soups but is losing share in other more peripheral products like the higher-priced “Healthy Request” line of soups.  6park.com
   
不过，Clouse认为没必要恐慌，因为该公司在汤品领域的竞争形势远远好于疫情前和整个生产线改造之前的情况。Clouse说，他认为汤类产品不会重回疫情前的竞争环境，用一位分析师的话来说，当时的卖点是大力促销和“竞相杀价”。 6park.com
Still, he argued that there is no reason for alarm, as the company’s competitive positioning in soups is far better than it was before the pandemic and before the entire line was revamped. Clouse said he sees no prospect of a return to the prepandemic competitive environment in soup, which featured heavy promotions and a “race to the bottom” on pricing, in the words of one analyst. 6park.com
   
这话可能没错。然而，对于整个食品领域的投资者来说，更大的担忧是消费者已经被涨价逼到了极限，折扣促销可能很快又开始兴起了。 6park.com
This is likely true. But the bigger concern for investors in the entire food space is that consumers have been pushed to the limit by price increases, and that discounting could soon start to pick up again.  6park.com
   
Clouse在周三的电话会议上告诉分析师：“随着时间的推移，毫无疑问，消费者开始感受到这种压力。”他还说，该公司开始看到消费者在月初购买更多商品之类的行为，这表明消费者的预算吃紧。 6park.com
“As time goes on, there’s no question consumers are starting to feel that pressure,” Clouse told analysts on Wednesday’s conference call. The company is beginning to see consumers do things like make more purchases early in the month, suggesting budgets are getting stretched, he added.  6park.com
   
沃尔玛(Walmart Inc., WMT)首席执行官董明伦(Doug McMillon)上个月表示，该公司正在与供应商合作，“尽可能快地”降低预制食品和消耗品类别的成本。 6park.com
Last month, Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon said the company is working with suppliers to get costs down in the prepared food and consumables categories “as fast as we possibly can.” 6park.com
   
在周二与分析师的电话会议上，斯味可首席执行官Mark Smucker在被问及来自竞争对手的定价压力时说：“我们没有看到任何反常的情况。”但他确实表示，价格促销的环境“与疫情前非常相似”。 6park.com
Smucker CEO Mark Smucker, asked about pricing pressure from competitors on his conference call with analysts on Tuesday, said that “we are not seeing anything out of the ordinary.” But he did say that the environment for price promotions is “very similar to prepandemic.” 6park.com
  
在预制食品市场，恢复至疫情前的艰难常态并不是投资者真正想要的。食品公司近年来推动涨起来的价格到底能坚持多久，现在是那些焦虑不安的股东们关心的头等大事。 6park.com
In the prepared-food aisles, a return to the difficult prepandemic normal isn’t exactly what investors want to see. Just how much of the price increases food companies have pushed through in recent years will stick is now top of mind with their anxious shareholders.  6park.com