欧洲新成功故事:有高奢,没有高科技
Europe’s new success stories are built on high luxury, not high tech

This raises hard questions for the continent in an age of vast wealth inequality and slow growth. 6park.com 在西方资本主义面临诸多难题之际,基于一些可追溯到17世纪的工艺来建立知识经济,可以说是一种倒退。

European markets have received a big lift from the global boom in luxury sales — a piece of unambiguously good news for the region. Nonetheless this success story also raises a troubling question: has Europe become too reliant on a sector many see as a symbol of decadence? 6park.com 欧洲股市因全球奢侈品销售繁荣而得到很大提振——对于该地区而言毫无疑问是一则好消息。尽管如此,这个成功故事也提出一个麻烦的问题:欧洲是否太依赖于这个被许多人视为堕落的标志的产业? 6park.com 6park.comContrast Europe to the US, where over the past 12 months 10 of the biggest tech firms accounted for 65 per cent of stock market returns — which is itself an alarming sign of industry concentration. The similar signs of concentration are even more concerning in Europe. There, 10 of the biggest luxury stocks, from LVMH to Ferrari, have accounted for about 30 per cent of returns — a share unmatched since records began. 6park.com拿欧洲和美国比一比:在美国,过去12个月,10家最大科技公司贡献了65%的股市回报——这本身也是令人警惕的产业集中的迹象。欧洲的类似集中迹象甚至更令人担忧。在欧洲,包括路威酩轩(LVMH)和法拉利(Ferrari)在内的10大奢侈品股票贡献了30%的回报——这是自有记录以来的最高比例。 6park.com 6park.comLong a source of pride in Europe, the luxury industry took off over the past decade and had its best years ever during the pandemic. Record stimulus added trillions in new wealth, much of it in the hands of the very rich, who spent a good chunk of it on high-end goods. 6park.com作为长期以来的欧洲骄傲,奢侈品行业过去十年迎来腾飞,在疫情期间取得前所未有的好业绩。创纪录的经济刺激措施增加了数万亿的新财富,其中大部分流入超富阶层手中,他们又将其中一大部分花在高端商品上。 6park.com 6park.comAs a result, Europe is finally making sizeable money from an industry that it has ruled for centuries. Two-thirds of global luxury sales revenues flow to Europe, and now the continent has stock market winners to show for it. 6park.com结果,欧洲终于从它统治了几个世纪的行业中赚到了可观的财富。三分之二的全球奢侈品销售收入流进欧洲,而且现在这块大陆有股市赢家来证明这一点。 6park.com 6park.comEurope’s list of top 10 companies by market capitalisation, which has historically been dominated by banks, utilities and industrial conglomerates, now features four luxury names, up from zero at the start of the 2010s. Its big luxury brands are even more profitable than big US tech, with earnings amounting to nearly 25 per cent of revenue. 6park.com按市值排名的10家最大欧洲公司——传统上由银行、公用事业、工业企业集团主导——现在包含4家奢侈品公司,而在2010年代之初,这个数字为零。欧洲的奢侈品大品牌甚至比美国科技巨头更能盈利,利润达到营收的近25%。 6park.com 6park.comThis may be a step forward for the luxury industry but it is not so much of one for Europe. Building a knowledge economy on crafts dating back to the 17th century is arguably a backwards move at a time when western capitalism faces weak productivity growth, rising wealth inequality and the conundrum of how to compete and coexist with China. 6park.com这也许是奢侈品行业的进步,但不算是欧洲的进步。在西方资本主义面临生产率增长乏力、财富不平等加剧以及如何与中国竞争和共存的难题之际,基于一些可追溯到17世纪的工艺来建立知识经济,可以说是一种倒退。 6park.com 6park.comIf it’s not clear how much smartphones boost productivity growth, it is safe to say that French perfume and Italian handbags contribute even less. While tech tycoons are subjects of controversy in the US, luxury tycoons are targets of street protests in France. And as the west debates whether to “derisk” its relationship with China, the European luxury sector is as dependent as ever on Chinese consumers, who now account for about a third of its sales. 6park.com如果我们尚不明确智能手机多大程度推动了生产率增长,那么我们至少可以说,法国香水和意大利手袋的贡献甚至更小。在美国,科技大亨是争议的对象,而在法国,奢侈品大亨则是街头抗议的目标。在西方争论是否要将其与中国的关系“去风险”之际,欧洲奢侈品行业一如既往地依赖中国消费者,后者现在占其销售额的三分之一左右。 6park.com 6park.comAs US tech got bigger over the past decade, so did European luxury. Since 2010, the 10 big tech firms have roughly quadrupled their share of the US stock market to nearly 25 per cent. Over the same period, the 10 biggest luxury stocks have roughly tripled their share of the European markets to nearly 15 per cent — with much of that gain over the past year. 6park.com过去10年,在美国科技行业壮大的同时,欧洲奢侈品行业也在增长。自2010年以来,美国10家最大科技公司在美国股市的份额大约增加了三倍,达到近25%。同期,欧洲10家最大奢侈品公司在欧洲股市的份额大约增加了两倍,达到近15%——其中大部分增长发生在过去一年。 6park.com 6park.comIn luxury as in tech, power is concentrating at the very top. The top European brands now account for a third of global sales, up from a quarter in 2010. Europe’s top four luxury companies, by market cap, are all French: LVMH, L’Oréal, Hermès, and Christian Dior (which is owned by LVMH). 6park.com与科技行业一样,奢侈品行业的实力也在向最顶层集中。欧洲顶级品牌目前占全球奢侈品销售的三分之一,高于2010年的四分之一。按市值计算,欧洲最大的4家奢侈品公司都是法国公司:路威酩轩、欧莱雅(L'Oréal)、爱马仕(Hermès)和克里斯汀•迪奥(Christian Dior,为路威酩轩所有)。 6park.com 6park.comThe roots of French dominance lie in a luxury ecosystem that dates to the court of Louis XIV, and a culture of corporate raiding that began with Bernard Arnault. After gaining control of LVMH in 1989, he set out to build the first house of luxury brands through serial acquisitions. Rivals followed his lead. Increasingly, the global luxury industry is based on goods that are still made by small Italian firms but sold by big French conglomerates. Gucci, Bulgari, Fendi — all are Italian brands now under French owners. 6park.com法国主导地位的根源在于可追溯到路易十四(Louis XIV)宫廷的奢侈品生态系统,以及始于贝尔纳•阿尔诺(Bernard Arnault)的企业收购文化。在1989年执掌路威酩轩后,他开始通过一系列收购建立第一家奢侈品牌集团。竞争对手也纷纷效仿。全球奢侈品行业越来越多地基于这样一种模式:商品仍由意大利小公司生产,但由法国大企业集团销售。古驰(Gucci)、宝格丽(Bulgari)、芬迪(Fendi)——这些意大利品牌现在都归法国人所有。 6park.com 6park.comWhile US tech firms overshadow all rivals, the same can be said of French luxury. Among the top luxury firms, the French have annual sales three times higher than the Swiss, more than four times the Americans and Chinese and 12 times the Italians. 6park.com美国科技公司令所有竞争对手黯然失色,法国奢侈品行业也是如此。在顶级奢侈品公司中,法国公司的年销售额是瑞士公司的3倍,是美国公司和中国公司的4倍多,是意大利公司的12倍。 6park.com 6park.comIn April, LVMH became the first European company to pass the half-trillion-dollar mark. Hermès now has margins over 40 per cent, up from 25 per cent in 2010 and above that of even Microsoft, the most profitable of the big tech firms. 6park.com今年4月,路威酩轩成为第一家市值超过5000亿美元的欧洲公司。爱马仕目前的利润率超过40%,高于2010年的25%,甚至超过了大型科技公司中最赚钱的微软(Microsoft)。 6park.com 6park.comOne reason for such high profits is pricing power. Luxury companies serve a clientele that is increasingly price-insensitive. The price of a Chanel handbag has doubled over the past five years to $10,000 — far outpacing the surge in general consumer price inflation seen over that period. 6park.com如此高利润的一个原因是定价权。奢侈品公司所服务的客户对价格越来越不敏感。一个香奈儿(Chanel)手袋的价格在过去5年里翻了一番,达到1万美元,远远超过同期总体消费价格的涨幅。 6park.com 6park.comSo Europe has finally found a winner, but with an asterisk. Capitalism gains more from competition than concentration. And given the choice between concentration in high tech or high luxury, the answer would be clear. There is something a bit outdated, if not actually decadent, in Europe’s luxury-led model. 6park.com所以说,欧洲终于找到了一个赢家,但它带个星号。资本主义的好处更多来自竞争,而非集中。如果让我们在集中于高科技还是高端奢侈品之间做出选择,答案不言自明。欧洲以奢侈品为主导的模式有点过时,甚至是堕落。
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