The World Ahead | Economics in 2024
展望世界 | 2024年的经济
Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy
不要指望世界经济软着陆
Inflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain
通胀是降了，但世界经济依旧脆弱
For some time the world economy has seemed to defy gravity. Despite the fastest tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, America’s economic growth probably accelerated in 2023. Europe has mostly weaned itself off Russian gas without economic catastrophe. Global inflation has fallen without big surges in unemployment, in part because labour markets have so far cooled mainly by shedding job vacancies not jobs themselves. As the year ends, optimists who predicted a “soft landing” are taking victory laps.
一段时间以来，世界经济似乎一直在逆势上涨。尽管美国采取了自上世纪80年代以来最迅速的货币紧缩政策，但2023年美国的经济可能还实现了加速增长。大多数欧洲国家也在未造成经济危机的前提下摆脱了对俄罗斯天然气的依赖。全球通胀率下降，失业率却没有大幅攀升，其中部分原因就在于岗位处于空缺状态，而非岗位本身被削减，因此目前劳动力市场已经降温。年终岁尾，预测经济会“软着陆”的乐观派正在欢呼胜利。
注释：
defy gravity: 通常用于形容某事物逆转自然规律或预期趋势。在经济学中，"defy gravity" 意味着经济表现出乎意料地好，尽管有许多不利因素。
Yet the world economy will remain fragile in 2024. Though inflation will be lower, it will remain too high. Economic policy still faces an excruciating balancing act. And even if America continues to dodge a recession, the rest of the world looks vulnerable.
然而，2024年世界经济将依旧脆弱。虽然通胀会继续有所下降，但仍将处于高位。经济政策仍面临痛苦权衡。即使美国可以再次躲过经济衰退，世界其他地区看起来也不堪重击。
Inflation’s recent fall has been a relief to central bankers. But in big, rich economies it is unlikely to continue declining all the way to their 2% targets unless a recession strikes. For one thing, labour markets still look too hot and nominal wage growth too high. For another, economies will have to contend with the effects of more expensive oil. Just when it seemed as if the supply shocks of the pandemic era and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had dissipated, with supply chains unclogged and economies rebalanced, a barrel of oil has risen in price by about a third since the summer, thanks to production cuts in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. A price fall was halted by Hamas’s attack on Israel. The resulting pricier petrol could raise fears of a “second wave” of inflation.
近来通胀降温让各大央行松了一口气。但对于大型富裕经济体而言，除非爆发经济衰退，否则通胀不太可能一路跌至2%的目标水平。一方面，劳动力市场看起来仍然过热，名义工资增速过快。此外，各经济体还必须应对石油价格上升的影响。疫情和俄乌冲突带来的供应冲击似乎已经消散，供应链重新恢复通畅，经济重归平衡状态，但由于沙特阿拉伯等国减产，自2023年夏天以来，每桶石油的价格已经上涨了约三分之一。哈马斯袭击以色列让油价下跌戛然而止，由此引发的新一轮油价上涨可能会增加人们对“第二波”通胀的担忧。
The major central banks will probably not raise interest rates further, instead treating any oil-driven inflation rebound as temporary. But, fearful of premature declarations of victory, they will not be keen to cut rates, either. On recent evidence America’s economy can withstand tight money, even if big companies refinancing debts and households who have run down their pandemic-era savings are beginning to feel squeezed. But high interest rates may be tipping the already-wobbly euro-zone economy into recession, and fear of inflation could stop its policymakers from cutting rates in response.
各大主要央行可能不会进一步加息，反而会将油价上涨导致的通胀反弹视为暂时现象。但由于担心宣告胜利为时尚早，因此这些央行也不会立即降息。最新的迹象表明，尽管大型公司再次进行债务融资，疫情期间掏空积蓄的家庭也开始节衣缩食，美国经济仍能够承受紧缩货币政策的冲击。然而，高利率可能将本就摇摇欲坠的欧元区经济推入衰退的境地，政府可能会担忧通胀问题而停止下调利率。
Even the robustness of America’s economy comes with a big asterisk: it is being supported by extraordinary levels of government borrowing. At the time of writing the federal government’s deficit is running at an annual rate of over 7% of gdp. Debate rages about whether interest rates have entered a “higher-for-longer” regime. The answer depends on whether the borrowing binge continues. It probably will: Congress will not confront it in a presidential-election year. And the first order of business for the next occupant of the White House will be renewing Donald Trump’s 2018 tax cuts, many of which expire in 2025 and which even Democrats will be reluctant to let lapse in full.
美国经济的稳健发展要打个大大的星号：它是在政府债务达到异常高水平的背景下实现的。笔者撰写本文时，联邦政府的赤字正以超过GDP 7%的年增长率运行。各界都在讨论利率是否已经陷入了“水平更高且维持时间更长”的境况。其实一切要看当前的借贷狂潮会否持续下去。大概率这种情况不会发生改变：国会不会在总统选举年内解决上述问题。下一任美国总统的首要任务将是续签唐纳德·特朗普2018年的减税计划，其中许多减税计划将于2025年到期，此时即使是民主党人也不愿意让这些减税政策完全失效。
注释：
asterisk n. a symbol (*) used to mark printed or written text, typically as a reference to an annotation or to stand for omitted matter.
Major central banks will probably not raise interest rates further
全球主要央行可能不会进一步加息
The gradual worsening of geopolitical tensions, and the global tide of protectionism, are throwing sand in the gears of trade. The number of protectionist measures in place is up from about 9,000 a decade ago to around 35,000 today, according to Global Trade Alert, a charity. Although some economies in Asia benefit from the relocation of supply chains, the duplication of investment and loss of the gains from specialisation are weighing on the global economy’s potential growth. Even winners, such as fast-growing India, show a worrying drift towards homeland economics.
大国之间的地缘政治关系日益紧张，全球保护主义浪潮也在抬头，这些都给自由贸易进程“减速”。据全球贸易警报（一家慈善机构）的数据显示，目前实行的保护主义措施从十年前的约9000项增加到了大约35000项。虽然亚洲的一些经济体因供应链迁出而受益，但这也增加了重复投资。同时，由于失去了专业化分工带来的收益，全球经济的增长潜力受到了负面影响。即使是像印度这样快速发展的国家也愈发倾向于依赖本土经济，这种趋势令人担忧。
Poor countries that are not in a position to benefit from the redistribution of investment are suffering from high indebtedness, low growth and a strong dollar. In 2024 the IMF will continue to struggle to work out how to provide debt relief to countries that are heavily in debt to lenders who do not subscribe to traditional principles for debt restructuring. And if America’s deficits continue to propel its economy while global growth disappoints, expect the dollar to rise still further, exacerbating their woes.
那些无法从投资再分配中获益的穷国正面临债台高筑、增长低迷和强势美元的多重压力。2024年，国际货币基金组织（IMF）面临的一个主要挑战是帮助那些负债累累的国家，特别是那些向不遵守传统债务重组准则的债权人借贷的国家。IMF将继续探索可能的解决方案。如果美国的财政赤字持续推动其经济增长，而全球经济增长却表现不佳，那么可以预见的是，美元将进一步升值，这将导致那些穷国陷入更严峻的困境。
The possibility of Mr Trump’s re-election to the White House brings the potential for all of these trends to be magnified. A second Trump term would probably mean even deeper tax cuts—and hence bigger deficits—and a further escalation of the trade war. As in 2016, stockmarkets might rally if Mr Trump wins in November, but it would be no good-news story. By the end of 2024 it might feel less as though the global economy has landed softly, and more like the start of another wild ride.
若特朗普再次当选总统，则这些趋势成真的可能性会加倍放大。特朗普就任后很可能会采取力度更大的减税措施，因此财政赤字也会增加，贸易战也会进一步升级。就像2016年一样，如果特朗普在11月的选举中获胜，股市可能会上涨，但这并非是个好消息。到2024年底，全球经济似乎不太可能实现软着陆，反而更像是另一场“过山车之旅”的开始。