思维导图：
Leaders | Chaos—or opportunity?
经济学人社论 | 是狼藉还是良机？
Donald Trump is winning. Business, beware
特朗普旗开得胜。商界精英们可得小心了
What a second term would mean for American business and the economy
特朗普重回白宫对于美国企业与经济意味着什么
When Donald Trump slunk out of the White House in 2021, executives at large American companies sighed with relief. Now that he has won Iowa’s caucuses by a margin of 30 points, they are digesting the reality that this time next year Mr Trump could be behind the Resolute desk once again. The Economist has spent the past few weeks talking to these titans. Some are deeply alarmed by the prospect of Trump 2. But others quietly welcome the chaos trade.
2021年，当特朗普悄然无声地离开白宫时，美国大型公司的高管们可谓是长舒一口气。而如今，随着特朗普在爱荷华州的党团会议上以30个百分点的优势大获全胜，高管们不得不面对这样一个现实：明年此时，特朗普可能会再次端坐在总统办公桌后。过去几周，本刊与这些商业巨头们进行了交流。部分人士对特朗普可能再度上任感到担忧，但也有人在暗自欢迎他所带来的贸易混乱局面。
注释：
1. slink out: To exit or depart (from some place) in a quiet, sneaky, inconspicuous, or furtive manner.
2. Resolute desk: 指的是位于美国总统办公室的桌子，英国女王维多利亚（Queen Victoria）于19世纪赠送给美国总统。这张桌子是由英国皇家海军的"Resolute"号船的一部分制成的，因此得名为 "Resolute desk"。
3. 爱荷华州举行的党团会议（Iowa's caucuses）是总统初选的第一场，通常在选举年的初期举行。这个州的党团会议具有重要的象征意义，因为它标志着总统初选季节的开始。候选人在这场初选中的表现会对后续的初选产生影响，因此它在选举周期中具有特殊的地位。
People who run large organisations have to be optimistic. They must find opportunities when others are panicking. ceos had an uneasy relationship with President Trump, many distancing themselves from his most outrageous pronouncements and tut-tutting about protectionism, even as they enjoyed his more conventional policies. Republicans in Congress may have talked about being the pro-worker party, but in practice they cut business taxes. It was hard for corporate America to be miserable amid a soaring stockmarket.
大型机构的管理者必须保持乐观心态。当他人在风浪中惊慌失措时，他们必须觅得良机。特朗普在任时，CEO们对他感情复杂：一方面，许多人对他那一通通暴论避之不及，对他的保护主义颇有微词；另一方面，他们能从他更常规的政策中获益。国会中的共和党人嘴上说着要成为替工人着想的政党，但在行动上，他们削减了商业税。在股市一派欣欣向荣之际，美国企业很难不乐开了花。
注释：
business tax: It is charged on the profits of a company, which may vary depending on the business type and structure.
If Mr Trump is indeed elected again, those running big firms plan to keep their heads down (“don’t be Bud Light” is a frequent refrain, after the beer brand fell victim to the culture wars). They would avoid being dragged onto Mr Trump’s business councils, dodge presidential photo-ops and get on with making money. True, if Mr Trump did a deal with Russia that ended the war and sold out Ukraine, that would be bad for Western civilisation. But it would reduce energy bills.
如果特朗普真能再度当选，那些大型公司的经营者打算低调行事（百威在文化战争中折戟沉沙，人们常常念叨“别成为百威清啤”）。他们将婉拒特朗普的商业委员会发来的要约，巧妙回避与总统合影留念的机会，继续专注于盈利。诚然，如果特朗普与俄罗斯达成协议，背刺乌克兰以结束俄乌冲突，将会沉重打击西方世界。但这或许能抑制能源价格。
注释：
keep one’s head down: to actively avoid conflict or attention.
What’s more, Trump enthusiasts in the c-suite have plenty of grumbles about Joe Biden. Mention Lina Khan, who oversees the Federal Trade Commission (the antitrust police), or Gary Gensler, who leads the Securities and Exchange Commission (the Wall Street police), and they inhale sharply. Mr Biden wants to raise taxes on companies. His administration also wants to go ahead with the Basel III “Endgame” regulations, which oblige big banks to hold perhaps 20% more capital on their balance-sheets, sedating animal spirits and damaging profitability.
此外，高管中的特朗普粉丝对拜登颇有怨言，提起联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission，反垄断监管机构）主席莉娜•汗（Lina Khan）或证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission，华尔街监管机构）主席加里•盖斯勒（Gary Gensler），他们都得倒吸一口凉气。拜登希望公司缴纳更多税款，拜登政府还希望继续推进《巴塞尔协议III》“终局”规则，迫使大型银行将资本金提高约20%。此举会降低市场热情，并且损害企业盈利能力。
注释：
“animal spirits”指凯恩斯提出的经济学概念，表示市场参与者的信心和愿意承担风险的程度。
Yet this bullish case for Mr Trump’s economic management is complacent. It fails to recognise how Trumponomics—a mix of deficit-funded tax cuts and tariffs—would work differently today. And it ignores the ways in which Mr Trump’s most chaotic tendencies could threaten America, including its companies.
然而，这种对于特朗普经济政策的乐观论调显得有些过于自满，不仅未能意识到特朗普经济学（Trumponomics）（增加赤字以支撑减税、增加关税）如今已有所不同，还忽视了特朗普的阴晴不定可能会对美国及美国企业造成的威胁。
In his first term the economy did better than many economists (including ours) expected. That was in part because Trumponomics turned out to be more moderate than the campaign had promised. The economy was also running further below capacity than thought, making it possible to cut taxes without stoking inflation. Strong overall growth and low inflation masked the damage done by Mr Trump’s protectionism.
在特朗普任期内，美国经济表现优于许多经济学家（包括本刊）的预期。部分原因是特朗普的经济政策实际上比竞选时宣称的要温和，经济（的实际产出水平）也比预期的远低于产能水平，使得减税政策没有如预期一般拉高通胀。强劲的总体经济增长与低通货膨胀掩盖了特朗普保护主义带来的损害。
There is no evidence that Mr Trump has updated his approach: he is still a tax-cuts-and-debt guy. But the economic conditions have changed. For the past two years the Federal Reserve has been trying to bring down inflation. Though it has nearly succeeded, the labour market remains tight. Today 2.8m more 25- to 54-year-olds are in work than would be if the employment rates of January 2017 had persisted. Then there were 1.3 unemployed workers for every job opening; today there are only 0.7. As a result the economy is more prone to overheating.
没有证据表明特朗普对其经济政策进行了调整——他仍旧执着于减税和发债。不过经济环境已然发生了变化。过去两年，美联储一直在努力降低通胀，尽管离成功只差一步之遥，但劳动力市场仍然偏紧。如若2017年1月的就业率水平延续至今，市场上将会多出280万25-54岁的就业人员。在当时，每一个职位空缺对应1.3名待业者，而如今只对应0.7名。因此，美国经济现在更容易过热。
The budget is in worse shape, too. In 2016 the annual deficit was 3.2% of gdp and debt was 76% of gdp. The forecasts for 2024 are 5.8% and 100%, respectively. Should Mr Trump once again pursue tax cuts, the Fed will have to hike up interest rates to offset the stimulus, making it costlier for businesses to raise capital and for the government to service its growing debt pile.
预算情况也更加糟糕。2016年，年度赤字和债务分别占GDP的3.2%和76%；而预计在2024年，这两个数字将分别达到5.8%和100%。如果特朗普再度推动减税，美联储将不得不提高利率以抵消这一刺激措施，致使企业集资成本增加，政府更难支付不断增长的债务利息。
These are the conditions under which Latin American populists bully their central banks to keep rates low, a practice Mr Trump dabbled in last time. The Fed is supposed to be independent, but Mr Trump will have a chance to nominate a stooge as chair in May 2026 and a pliant Senate could indulge him. The risk of more inflation would surge, perhaps exacerbated by more tariffs, which would also slow growth.
面对同样的情况，拉美民粹主义者则迫使其央行保持低利率，而特朗普上次已经浅尝了这种方法。美联储本应是独立机构，但特朗普有机会在2026年5月提名一个亲信担任美联储主席，顺从的参议院也会对他惟命是从。通胀风险将因此加剧，而关税的增加可能会导致情况雪上加霜，减缓经济增长。
On top of that big macroeconomic risk are many others. Firms would not relish further trade restrictions, but some members of Mr Trump’s circle have floated a 60% tariff on imports from China. Lots of companies like the federal government’s support for renewable energy (which Mr Trump calls the Green New Scam). He has promised the biggest deportation scheme in American history to reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the country. As well as causing misery, this would be a shock to that tight labour market.
除了巨大的宏观经济风险外，还有许多其他风险。企业不会喜欢进一步收紧的贸易限制，但特朗普圈子中的一些人已经提出要对XX进口的商品征收60%的关税。许多公司都很欢迎联邦政府对可再生能源的扶持（特朗普则称之为“绿色新骗局”）。特朗普承诺实施美国历史上规模最大的驱逐计划，以减少非法移民的数量，而这不仅会造成痛苦，还会对紧张的劳动力市场造成冲击。
As ever, saying what Mr Trump would actually do is very hard: he has few fixed beliefs, is a chaotic boss and can reverse position several times a day. In a town hall in Iowa he said he would be too busy in his second term to seek retribution against his political enemies. That was a few hours after his own campaign sent out an email with the subject line: “I am your retribution!” Businesses often say that what they fear most is uncertainty. With Mr Trump that is guaranteed.
和往常一样，很难说特朗普究竟会怎么做：他几乎没有固定的信念，是一个稀里糊涂的领导，一天可以改变几次立场。在爱荷华州的一次市政厅会议上，他说他的第二个任期会十分忙碌，无暇报复他的政敌。就在几个小时前，他自己的竞选团队发出了一封电子邮件，主题为：“我是你的报应!”企业家们经常说，他们最害怕的就是不确定性。在特朗普这里，不确定性是少不了的。
This unpredictability could make a second Trump term very much worse than the first. His administration would lack establishment types like Gary Cohn, once of Goldman Sachs, to shuffle the president’s in-tray and hide the madder ideas from him. More moments like January 6th are possible, as is a full-on revenge presidency. The idea that in this scenario business leaders could keep a low profile and focus on ebitda is fanciful. Employees, customers and the press would demand to know where bosses stood and what they proposed to do. The administration might in turn take exception to every whiff of criticism.
这种不可预测性可能会让特朗普的第二个任期比第一个更糟糕。他的政府将缺乏像高盛前总裁加里•科恩（Gary Cohn）那样的建制派人士整理总统的工作事务，并隐藏更疯狂的想法。类似1月6日的事件（国会山暴乱——译者注）可能会再次发生，这一任期可能充满复仇色彩。在这种情况下，企业领导人要想保持低调、埋头于EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）是不切实际的。员工、客户和媒体会要求知道老板们的立场以及他们接下来的打算。反过来，政府可能会对任何批评都加以反对。
In the long run, the idea that corporate profits can be insulated from societal upheaval is a fantasy. If Mr Trump is broadly corrupting of American politics, and businesses are seen to profit from his rule, that poses a big risk to them in the future. In Latin America, when big businesses have become associated with autocrats the result was usually that capitalism was discredited and the appeal of socialism rose. That seems unthinkable in America. But so, until recently, did a second Trump term.
从长远来看，认为企业利润可以不受社会动荡影响是不切实际的。如果特朗普在广泛地腐蚀美国政治，而企业被认为在从中获利，这将在未来对企业构成巨大风险。划线这句留给读者。放到美国，这似乎是天方夜谭。但别忘了，直到最近，特朗普再次当选看上去也不怎么靠谱。

贴主:不知笔名于2024_01_31 21:45:41编辑