How Chinese Tariffs Soured Australia’s Wine Industry


在中国高额关税影响下，澳大利亚葡萄酒出口受到巨大冲击，表明一旦贸易形势转差，高端消费品牌尤其容易受到冲击，同时也表明如果中国和西方紧张局势再次升级可能带来什么。


澳大利亚红酒市场领导者Treasury Wine Estates的股价从2019年的最高点下跌了40%，Wynns是其旗下品牌之一。

苹果公司(Apple)和LVMH等高端消费品牌从中国与西方之间日益增长的贸易中受益良多，直到不久前，澳大利亚葡萄酒也是其中一大受益者。 6park.com
Premium consumer brands such as Apple, LVMH and, until recently, Australian wines, have been big winners from rising commerce between China and the West. 6park.com
   
然而，一旦形势转差，这些品牌也尤其容易受到冲击。澳大利亚一度繁荣的葡萄酒出口陷入窘境就是一个很有说服力的案例，同时也是一个警示，表明如果中国和西方之间的紧张局势再次升级可能带来什么。 6park.com
When things turn sour, however, they can be especially vulnerable too. The sorry state of Australia’s once-thriving wine-export business is a case in point—and a warning about what could happen, if tensions between China and the West spike again. 6park.com
   
2020年，中国对澳大利亚葡萄酒征收169%的关税，指责该国葡萄酒制造商向中国“倾销”产品，即以低于正常价格销售葡萄酒。然而，在中国采取这些行动前不久，澳大利亚呼吁对新冠病毒起源进行一项国际调查。中国还对大麦和煤炭等其他澳大利亚商品实施了限制。 6park.com
In 2020, China imposed a 169% tariff on Australian wine, accusing the country’s winemakers of “dumping” their products into China—i.e., selling below normal prices. However, the measure came shortly after Australia had called for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19. China also imposed restrictions on other Australian goods, including barley and coal.



这些行动很快产生了巨大影响：2023年，澳大利亚出口到中国大陆的葡萄酒比2019年减少了99%。2019年，中国成为澳大利亚葡萄酒第一大出口国，占总出口的近40%。与美国和英国等其他主要市场相比，中国消费者也更偏爱高端葡萄酒。按价值计算，澳大利亚的葡萄酒总出口自2019年以来锐减了35%。 6park.com
The results were dramatic: Exports of Australian wine to mainland China were 99% lower in 2023 than in 2019. China was Australia’s top destination for wine in 2019, accounting for nearly 40% of exports. Chinese consumers also skewed toward more premium wines, compared with other top markets such as the U.S. and U.K. Total Australian wine exports, by value, have plunged 35% since 2019. 6park.com
   
一些最终出售给中国消费者的葡萄酒可能绕道香港：同期，澳大利亚对这个半自治城市的葡萄酒出口增长了近两倍。但这远远不足以抵消直接向中国大陆出口的葡萄酒的下降。 6park.com
Some wine destined for Chinese customers probably took a detour through Hong Kong: Australian wine exports to the Chinese semiautonomous city nearly tripled over the same period. But that was far from enough to offset the decline in direct shipments to the mainland.  6park.com
   
这一事件的一个教训是，在贸易争端中，贸易限制对葡萄酒等消费产品的冲击往往特别严重，尤其是那些需要大量销售和营销投资来建立品牌知名度的高端消费品。 6park.com
One lesson is that trade restrictions on consumer goods like wines—especially premium ones that require big investment in sales and marketing to build up brand recognition—often suffer particularly badly in a trade dispute. 6park.com
   
大麦和煤炭等商品转道销往其他市场的难度要低一些。例如，自中国2020年开始实施非正式禁令以来，澳大利亚对印度和日本的煤炭出口量已实现增长。这一过程并非毫无痛苦，但缓和了中国禁令造成的冲击。在中国2023年初恢复购买澳大利亚煤炭之前的2019年到2022年，澳大利亚的煤炭出口总量下降了14%，这无疑是一个不小的冲击，但考虑到中国是全球第一大煤炭消费国，且消费量远超其他国家，这种打击的程度比预期要轻。 6park.com
Commodities such as barley and coal can be diverted to other countries more easily. Australia, for example, has shipped more coal to India and Japan since China started its unofficial ban in 2020. The process wasn’t painless, but it softened the blow. Total coal-export volumes from Australia fell 14% from 2019 to 2022, before China resumed buying in early 2023—a substantial hit to be sure, but considering that China is far and away the world’s top coal consumer, less bad than one might expect. 6park.com
   
同样，在中国于2020年征收高额关税后，澳大利亚的大麦也在沙特阿拉伯和其他一些中东国家找到了新销路。 6park.com
Similarly, Australia found new destinations for its barley—including Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries—after China imposed hefty tariffs in 2020. 6park.com
   
澳大利亚的葡萄酒生产商则没有那么幸运。由于销售额减少，旗下拥有Hardys等中等价位品牌的Accolade Wines已经负债累累。本月早些时候，这家澳大利亚第二大葡萄酒生产商宣布，该公司将出售给一个由私募股权公司贝恩资本(Bain Capital)牵头的财团。 6park.com
Australian winemakers haven’t been so lucky. Accolade Wines, which owns midprice brands such as Hardys, has been saddled with debt as sales dwindled. Last week the winemaker, the second largest in Australia, announced that it would sell itself to a consortium led by private-equity firm Bain Capital. 6park.com
   
澳大利亚葡萄酒市场的领头羊Treasury Wine Estates股价已从2019年的高位下跌了40%。该公司截至2023年6月财年的收入仍比四年前低14%。之前其奔富(Penfolds)品牌在中国消费者中尤其受欢迎。 6park.com
Shares of market leader Treasury Wine Estates have fallen 40% from their 2019 peak. And its revenue for the fiscal year ended June 2023 is still 14% below the level of four years earlier. Its Penfolds brand was particularly popular among Chinese consumers.  6park.com
   
该公司尝试通过海外收购推动业务多元化。2021年该公司收购了加利福尼亚酒庄Frank Family Vineyards，几个月前又收购了DAOU Vineyards。这两个品牌的目标客户都是美国比较富裕的葡萄酒行家。但是，与直接将产品运往新市场销售相比，通过收购竞争对手推进多元化的困难更多，该公司去年不得不进行配股，为收购DAOU筹集资金，导致股价下挫。 6park.com
The company has tried to diversify through foreign acquisitions. It bought California’s Frank Family Vineyards in 2021 and DAOU Vineyards a few months ago. Both brands target more affluent wine connoisseurs in the U.S. But buying competitors is a tougher way to diversify than just shipping your product to new markets: The company had to do a share placement last year to finance its DAOU acquisition, which tanked its shares. 6park.com
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最近情况有所好转。随着澳中两国关系开始回暖，对葡萄酒关税的复审正在进行。中国已经撤销了对大麦的关税，并恢复进口澳大利亚煤炭。 6park.com
Things have been better recently. As the relationship between Australia and China starts to thaw, a review of wine tariffs is on the table. China has removed tariffs on barley and resumed imports of Australian coal. 6park.com
   
但是，中国与西方民主国家之间的关系可能会继续恢复稳定，也可能再度生变。如果贸易紧张局势再次加剧，矿商和农场主将找到办法应对。但像高档手提包和优质葡萄酒这样的产品的供应商可能就没那么幸运了。 6park.com
But more stable ties between China and Western democracies may or may not last. If trade tensions do increase again, miners and farmers will find ways to cope. Purveyors of fine handbags, vintages and the like might not be so lucky.