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Why Treasury Yields Are Rising Despite Rate-Cut Expectations
10年期美国国债收益率自年初以来攀升，推高了按揭贷款利率。这样的攀升令华尔街的许多人感到惊讶，本文分析了影响国债收益率的因素，以及未来收益率可能上升或下降的原因。
国债收益率又为按揭贷款利率和其他类型的固定利率债务设定了一个底价。 The Federal Reserve keeps promising interest-rate cuts. Treasury yields, a key driver of mortgage rates and other borrowing costs, keep rising anyway.
美联储不断承诺降息。然而作为按揭贷款利率和其他借贷成本一个主要驱动因素的国债收益率却在不断攀升。 6park.com
As of Tuesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.233%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.860% at the end of last year. As a result, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has also ticked higher, as has the cost of borrowing in the corporate-bond market. 6park.com 6park.com这样的攀升令华尔街上原本预计收益率将下降的许多人感到惊讶，也令一直在等待按揭贷款利率从二十年高位回落的美国人感到沮丧。但这也揭示了美国借贷成本是如何决定的细微之处，以及借贷成本走势持续存在的不确定性。 6park.comThe climb has surprised many on Wall Street, who had expected yields to fall, and frustrated Americans who have been waiting for mortgage rates to ease from two-decade highs. But it illustrates the nuances of how borrowing costs are determined in the U.S., and the continuing uncertainty over the path they might take. 6park.com
据Tradeweb，截至本周一，基准10年期美国国债收益率报4.252%，高于去年年底的3.860%。由此带来的结果是，30年期固定利率按揭贷款的平均利率有所上升，公司债券市场的借贷成本也走高。 6park.com
以下是影响国债收益率的因素，以及在不久的将来收益率可能上升或下降的原因。 6park.comHere’s what is moving Treasury yields, and why they might go up or down in the near future.
10年期国债收益率近期上涨的原因 Yields on Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, largely reflect what investors think the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate will average over the life of a bond. They in turn set a floor on mortgage rates and other types of fixed-rate debt.
国债收益率大致可以反映投资者对债券有效期内美联储基准短期利率平均水平的看法。反过来，国债收益率又为按揭贷款利率和其他类型的固定利率债务设定了一个底价。债券收益率与价格呈反方向变动。 6park.com
Right now, the Fed’s short-term rate sits in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 23-year high. Coming into 2024, investors expected the Fed to cut that rate six times this year, bringing it down to 3.75%—4%. 6park.com
目前，美联储的短期利率介于5.25%到5.5%区间，这是23年来的高点。进入2024年，投资者预计美联储今年将六次下调该利率，使其降至3.75%到4%区间。 6park.com
然后是接受现实的检验。 6park.comThen came a reality check. 6park.com
美国1月和2月份通胀数据强于预期，经济增长也被证明具有韧性，这促使投资者缩减了对降息的押注。现在，交易员预计今年年底的利率将为4.5%-4.75%。 6park.comInflation readings for January and February came in firmer than expected, and economic growth has proved resilient, forcing investors to dial back their rate-cut bets. Now, traders expect rates to end the year between 4.5% and 4.75%. 6park.com 6park.com美联储本身仍在发出降息信号。上周对美联储官员的一项调查显示，他们的预测中值是今年将降息三次，与去年12月份的预测相同。 6park.comThe central bank itself is still signaling cuts. A survey of Fed officials last week showed that their median forecast is for three cuts this year, unchanged from December. 6park.com
但随着投资者的预期与美联储的预测更趋一致，国债收益率已然攀升。 6park.comTreasury yields, however, have climbed as investor expectations have come more in line with the Fed’s projections.
美国国债收益率为何仍可能走高？ President Biden said at his State of the Union speech earlier this month that mortgage rates will come down if inflation continues to fall, adding that “the Fed acknowledges that.” 6park.com 6park.com现实情况更为复杂。 6park.comThe reality is more complicated. 6park.com
美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)在本月早些时候的国情咨文演讲中表示，如果通胀率继续下行，房贷利率就会下降，拜登还称，美联储承认这一点。 6park.com
即使美联储今年降息，美国国债收益率也可能进一步走高。投资者只需继续缩减他们对美联储在2024年及以后降息幅度的押注。 6park.comEven if the Fed cuts rates this year, Treasury yields could rise further. Investors would just need to keep scaling back bets on how much they think the Fed will cut in 2024 and beyond.
That wouldn’t be too difficult. Current yields still reflect bets that the Fed’s benchmark rate will drop roughly 2 percentage points over the next few years. 6park.com
这并不太难。目前的收益率仍反映出对美联储基准利率在未来几年将下降约两个百分点的押注。 6park.com
“美联储将降息，但会来得晚一些，而且今年的降息幅度会小一些，” 资产管理公司Payden & Rygel的首席经济学家Jeffrey Cleveland表示。“因此，10年期国债收益率应该会稍有上扬。” 6park.com“Cuts will come, but it’s going to be later and there’s going to be fewer cuts this year,” said Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at asset manager Payden & Rygel. “So that argues for a bit higher 10-year yields.” 6park.com
美联储的最终目标是将利率降至既不刺激经济增长也不会减缓经济增长的水平。但这一中性利率究竟是多少，目前还很不确定。 6park.comThe Fed’s ultimate goal is to bring rates down to a level that would neither stimulate nor slow growth. But it is highly uncertain what that so-called neutral rate actually is. 6park.com 6park.com上周的利率预测显示，官员们对“长期”利率水平的预测中值为2.6%。这是自2019年年中以来，该预测值首次略高于2.5%，与此同时，一些分析师预计，在未来的调查中该预测将继续走高。 6park.comLast week’s interest-rate projections showed that officials’ median forecast for where rates will settle in the “longer run” was 2.6%. That was the first time since mid-2019 that the forecast was even slightly above 2.5%, and some analysts expect it to keep drifting higher in future surveys. 6park.com
当然，美联储最终可能会将利率下调至2.5%以下的疫情前水平。但Cleveland说，这种情形在未来六个月不太可能发生，使得投资者不得不考虑一系列的情况，其中包括美联储在未来几年几乎不降息的情况。 6park.comThe Fed could, of course, eventually lower rates back to prepandemic levels below 2.5%. But that is unlikely to happen over the next six months, Cleveland said, leaving investors to ponder a range of scenarios, including one in which the Fed hardly cuts rates in the coming years.
为什么许多人预计收益率会下降 Treasury yields remain below their peaks from last October, when the 10-year yield briefly climbed to a 16-year high of roughly 5%. At that point, data showed economic growth was accelerating and investors were still concerned that the Fed could keep raising rates. 6park.com
美国国债收益率仍低于去年10月的峰值，当时10年期国债收益率曾一度攀升至约5%的16年高点。当时，数据显示经济增长正在加速，投资者仍担心美联储会继续加息。 6park.com
许多投资者认为，要完全回到5%的水平可能会颇为不易。 6park.comMany investors believe that getting all the way back to 5% would be difficult. 6park.com
Vanguard国债部门主管John Madziyire表示，要做到这一点，可能需要出现经济增长再度大幅加速的迹象，或者围绕发行国债为联邦预算赤字提供资金的担忧加剧。 6park.comDoing so would likely require signs of a significant reacceleration in economic growth or mounting concerns about the issuance of Treasurys needed to fund the federal budget deficit, said John Madziyire, head of Treasurys at Vanguard. 6park.com 6park.com他说，10年期美国国债收益率的上限更有可能在4.5%左右。从另一个极端来看，Madziyire说，如果通胀重回下行轨道，他认为收益率可能会降至3.5%，即使没有经济衰退也会促使美联储大幅降息。 6park.comMore likely, the upper limit for the 10-year yield is around 4.5%, he said. At the other end of the spectrum, Madziyire said he could see the yield falling as low as 3.5% if inflation resumes its downward trajectory, even absent a recession that would prompt aggressive rate cuts. 6park.com
正因如此，Madziyire表示，只要10年期美国国债收益率达到4.35%左右，也就是近期区间高点，他的团队就会乐于买入更多美国国债。 6park.comThat is why Madziyire said his team would be happy to buy more Treasurys whenever the 10-year yield gets to about 4.35%, the top of its recent range. 6park.com
他还说，即使美联储不降息，美国国债也只能“下跌这么多，除非你开始计入加息的影响”。 6park.comEven if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, Treasurys can “only sell off so much unless you start pricing in hikes,” he added.
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