Two China Property Giants Lead Drive to Diversify


随着中国房地产行业翻身的希望逐渐渺茫，最大的一些开发商在建房之外，正加倍致力于资产管理和投资性物业，以寻求更稳定的利润来源。


分析师表示，随着房地产市场持续低迷，开发商寻求分散风险并创造可持续的商业模式，自然会转向经常性收入这种长期举措。

随着中国房地产行业翻身的希望逐渐渺茫，最大的一些开发商在建房之外，正加倍致力于资产管理和投资性物业，以寻求更稳定的利润来源。 6park.com
Some of China’s biggest developers are doubling down on asset management and investment property rather than home building, seeking more stable sources of income as hopes for a turnaround in the country’s real-estate sector fade. 6park.com
    
分析师说，上述转变应能为投资者提供更清晰的盈利路线图，同时也有助于提高公司估值和财务健康水平；在中国房地产行业多年来经历销售疲软和行业监管收紧之后，开发商此举旨在提高利润稳定性。 6park.com
That shift, an effort to boost profit stability after years of weak property sales and tightened sector regulations in the world’s second-largest economy, should give investors a clearer road map into earnings while also boosting company valuations and financial health, analysts say. 6park.com
   
华润置地(China Resources Land)和龙湖(Longfor)走在了前列，这两家开发商拥有成熟的投资物业，包括一些中国大型购物中心。 6park.com
At the front of the drive are China Resources Land and Longfor, two developers with mature investment properties that include some of the biggest shopping malls in China. 6park.com
    
华润置地本月表示，预计到2025年，经常性业务将占利润的40%，长期占比将提高到50%，去年为34%，这将帮助其在现金流、盈利能力和资产周转之间取得平衡。该公司计划今年在中国开设16家购物中心，并在2027年将在营购物中心总数从目前的76家增加到117家。 6park.com
CR Land said this month that it expects recurring business to make up 40% of profits by 2025 and 50% over the longer term, up from 34% last year, helping it strike a balance between cash flow, profitability and asset turnover. It plans to open 16 malls in China this year and boost its total portfolio in 2027 to 117 from 76 currently. 6park.com
   
就龙湖而言，去年近三分之二的核心利润来自租赁业务和物业管理服务，高于2022年的27%。Jefferies分析师在最近的一份研究报告中说，去年是龙湖“向业主模式转型”的一个拐点。 6park.com
In Longfor’s case, nearly two-thirds of core profit last year came from the rental business and property management services, up from 27% in 2022. Last year was an inflection point for Longfor to “transform to a landlord model,” Jefferies analysts said in a recent research note. 6park.com
   
目前，龙湖运营88个商场，计划今年将管理的商场增加14个。 6park.com
Longfor now plans to add 14 malls this year to its portfolio of 88 under management. 6park.com
   
大和分析师William Wu表示，过去十年，龙湖和华润置地都在某种程度上牺牲了部分短期利润，以壮大它们的商业帝国；这种策略正在取得成效。 6park.com
“Both Longfor and CR Land had in a way sacrificed some of their short-term profit over the past decade to grow their commercial empire,” Daiwa analyst William Wu said. That strategy “is now paying off.” 6park.com
   
其他公司也有类似的想法，只是规模较小。越秀地产(Yuexiu Property)本周表示，该公司2023年的商业地产租金收入增长了50%，达到近人民币5亿元，该公司正寻求稳步提高商业地产的贡献。 6park.com
Other companies have similar aspirations, if on a smaller scale. Yuexiu Property said this week that its 2023 rental income from commercial properties rose 50% to nearly half a billion yuan, and that it’s seeking to steadily boost contributions from such properties. 6park.com
   
分析师表示，随着房地产市场持续低迷，开发商寻求分散风险并创造可持续的商业模式，自然会转向经常性收入这种长期举措。今年2月份，中国新房价格连续第七个月下跌，分析师称目前还看不到底部。 6park.com
Analysts say the pivot to recurring income is a natural, long-term move as developers seek to diversify risks and create sustainable business models amid a prolonged housing downturn. China’s new home prices fell for a seventh straight month in February, with analysts saying a bottom isn’t yet in sight. 6park.com
   
晨星分析师Jeff Zhang表示，与具有高度周期性的房地产销售相比，经常性收入更为稳定。 6park.com
In contrast to “highly cyclical property sales, recurring income enjoys more stability,” Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang said. 6park.com
    
分析师们表示，这也符合中国政府关于在债务沉重的房地产行业建立新运营模式的号召。中国最高决策者本月在年度政府工作报告中强调要构建“房地产发展新模式”。 6park.com
It’s also in line with Beijing’s call for a new model of operations in the heavily indebted sector, analysts say. China’s top policymakers this month emphasized building a “new property development mode” in an annual government work report. 6park.com
   
商场租赁业务的毛利率往往远高于住宅建设业务。华润置地和龙湖公布的2023年投资性物业毛利率分别为70%和76%，相比之下，这两家开发商的整体毛利率分别为25%和17%。晨星在近期一份研究报告中表示，预计到2028年，经常性收入的增长将带动华润置地的毛利率升至27%。 6park.com
The shopping mall rental business tends to enjoy much higher gross profit margins than the home construction business. Both CR Land and Longfor posted 2023 investment property gross margins of 70% and 76%, compared with overall margins of 25% and 17%, respectively. Morningstar said in a recent research note that it expects growth in recurring income to lift CR Land’s gross margin to 27% by 2028. 6park.com
   
仲量联行(JLL)的大中华区首席经济学家庞溟(Bruce Pang)表示，与其他开发商相比，身为业主对于收入和利润表现拥有更高的能见度，且波动性更小。 6park.com
“Landlords have higher visibility and lower volatility on their top lines and profits than their developer peers,” said Bruce Pang, JLL’s Greater China chief economist. 6park.com
   
这样的业务转变也有助于提升股票估值，因为许多券商把资产净值作为评估中国房地产股票的关键指标。加大对经常性收入的依赖将有助于提高资产价值的可预测性，使分析师更容易评估公司的现金流并计算出更合理的估值水平。 6park.com
“Landlords have higher visibility and lower volatility on their top lines and profits than their developer peers,” said Bruce Pang, JLL’s Greater China chief economist. 6park.com
   
今年以来，华润置地和龙湖的股价已下跌了约11%，略好于恒生中国内地地产指数14%的跌幅。越秀地产今年迄今下跌了32%。 6park.com
Shares of CR Land and Longfor are down about 11% this year, slightly ahead of a 14% decline in the broader Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index. Yuexiu is down 32%. 6park.com
  
晨星的Jeff Zhang表示，投资者应该会欢迎这种业务转向。他指出商场租赁业务的利润率较高。他说，房地产开发业务仍将是开发商盈利的主要来源，但预计资产管理和物业投资的利润占比将逐渐增加。 6park.com
Investors “should like this pivot,” Morningstar’s Zhang said, pointing to the higher margins of the mall rental business. “The development business will still represent the bulk of developers’ earnings, [but] we expect profit from asset management and property investment to see a larger mix over time.”