Super Micro’s AI Boom Carries a Big Price Tag


这家基于英伟达芯片的AI服务器生产商的股票炙手可热，但高成本的商业模式让其股票估值显得过高。


去年，在台北举办的一个展会上，Super Micro Computer展位上展示的服务器。

Super Micro Computer的人工智能(AI)繁荣是实实在在的。不过，该公司高涨的股价似乎也忽略了一些更为棘手的现实问题。 6park.com
Super Micro Computer’s artificial-intelligence boom is real enough. Its booming stock price also seems to be discounting some more difficult realities, though.  6park.com
   
该公司更广为人知的名字是Supermicro，它上周加入标普500指数的消息引起了巨大轰动。在加入该指数前，Supermicro股价自今年年初以来就已上涨两倍多，在过去12个月累计上涨逾1,000%。涨幅远远超过包括AI巨头英伟达(Nvidia)在内的标普500指数其他成分股。 6park.com
The company more commonly known as Supermicro made a big splash when it joined the S&P 500 last week. Even before being added to the index, its stock had more than tripled since the start of the year and risen by more than 1,000% in the past 12 months. That far and away beat anything else on the index, including AI titan Nvidia.  6park.com
   
Supermicro股价飙升不无道理。该公司截至去年12月的第二财季收入达到创纪录的37亿美元，为上年同期水平的两倍，较接受FactSet调查的分析师平均预期高出21%，是该公司至少五年来收入超预期幅度最大的一次。 6park.com
The surge isn’t without some justification. The $3.7 billion in revenue that Supermicro reported for its fiscal second quarter ended December was a record and double what the company reported in the same period last year. It also beat Wall Street’s consensus forecast by 21%—the largest beat the company has delivered in at least five years, according to data from FactSet.  6park.com
  
Supermicro借机第二次上调了对截至6月的当前财年业绩预期。该公司目前给出的本财年收入预期区间中点为145亿美元左右。六个月前，该公司曾预计财年收入约为105亿美元。 6park.com
Supermicro used the occasion to raise forecasts for its fiscal year ending in June for the second time. The company now expects revenue for the year of about $14.5 billion at the midpoint of that guide. It had been projecting about $10.5 billion in annual revenue six months prior. 



这种增长并非昙花一现。Supermicro专门生产高性能服务器，这些服务器使用英伟达图形处理器(GPU)芯片为数据中心的生成式AI能力提供支持。市场对这些功能的需求很强劲，可能会持续一段时间；科技巨头微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)、亚马逊(Amazon)和Meta都已公开承诺，今年将把更多资本支出用于AI基础设施。本年度英伟达数据中心收入预计将增长近一倍，达到936亿美元，下一年度将达到近1,170亿美元。 6park.com
That growth is no flash in the pan. Supermicro specializes in the types of high-performance servers that use Nvidia’s GPU chips to power generative AI capabilities in data centers. Demand for those capabilities is strong and likely to remain so for a while; tech giants Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta have all publicly committed to devoting more capital expenditure toward AI infrastructure this year. Nvidia’s data-center revenue is expected to nearly double to $93.6 billion this year and hit nearly $117 billion next year.  6park.com
  
在同样趋势的推动下，分析师预计Supermicro截至2025年6月财年的收入将突破200亿美元，是该公司两年前收入的四倍。 6park.com
Propelled by the same trends, analysts expect Supermicro’s revenue to top $20 billion in the fiscal year ending in June of 2025—four times what the company was producing just two years ago.  6park.com
    
但对于Supermicro来说，实现这种增长需要付出高昂成本。该公司的商业模式涉及提早购买英伟达昂贵的GPU处理器等组件，以便为大客户快速设计和组装定制服务器。在最近一个季度，仅两个买家就占到Supermicro净销售额的36%。Supermicro最近一个季度的现金消耗达到创纪录的6.1亿美元，过去10个财年中有五个财年的自由现金流为负值。 6park.com
But for Supermicro, servicing that growth comes at a high cost. The company’s business model involves buying up components such as Nvidia’s expensive GPU processors early in order to quickly design and assemble customized servers for large customers. Just two buyers represented 36% of the company’s net sales in its most recent quarter. Supermicro burned a record $610 million in cash in its most recent quarter, and free cash flow has been negative in five of the last 10 fiscal years.  6park.com
  
这使得Supermicro不得不重返资本市场。该公司去年12月出售了价值5.5亿美元的股票，上周又公开发售了价值15亿美元的股票。Supermicro还在上个月完成了价值15亿美元的债券发行。Susquehanna分析师Mehdi Hosseini表示，未来AI服务器市场对定制化的要求将越来越高。 6park.com
That has necessitated some return trips to the capital markets; Supermicro sold $1.5 billion worth of stock in a public offering last week after moving $550 million worth of shares in December. The company also completed a debt sale worth $1.5 billion last month. Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini says the AI server market will demand increasing levels of customization in the future.  6park.com
   
他去年12月将Supermicro股票评级下调至卖出时写道，预计这种趋势将进一步增加营运资金要求，导致自由现金流下降，因为预计Supermicro将为每种AI架构构建各种SKU服务器产品。 6park.com
“This is expected to further increase working capital requirement and reduce (free cash flow) as Supermicro is expected to build various SKUs for each AI architecture,” he wrote when downgrading the stock to a sell rating in December.  6park.com
   
竞争也在急剧升温，其中最明显的是来自戴尔(Dell)的竞争。这家IT设备和服务巨头在最近的财报电话会议上表示，该公司AI服务器储备订单在短短三个月内增加了一倍。戴尔的财力要雄厚得多，该公司最近12个月的自由现金流接近60亿美元，而且可供捆绑的产品和服务基础也更广泛。戴尔似乎还与英伟达建立了稳固的合作关系。 6park.com
Competition is also picking up sharply—most notably from Dell. The IT equipment and services giant said in its most recent earnings call that its backlog of AI server orders doubled in just three months’ time. Dell has much greater financial resources—its free cash flow was nearly $6 billion in the most recent 12-month period—and a wider base of products and services it can bundle. Dell also seems to have a solid relationship with Nvidia. 6park.com
  
英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在上周高调发表的主题演讲中说，没有哪家公司比戴尔更擅长为企业构建超大规模端对端系统。 6park.com
“Nobody is better at building end-to-end systems of a very large scale for the enterprise than Dell,” said Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang during his high-profile keynote address last week. 



高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根大通(JP Morgan)分析师都在本月对Supermicr进行初始评级，他们认为，快速扩张的AI服务器市场仍为Supermicr留下了很大的增长空间。不过，即使该股较两周前的高点下跌约14%，基于远期收益的市盈率仍在37倍左右。这几乎是该股三年平均市盈率的三倍，与英伟达目前的市盈率不相上下。不过，由于自家AI芯片提振利润爆炸式增长，英伟达的市盈率较其三年平均值低10%。戴尔基于远期收益的市盈率还不到15倍，该股年内已累计上涨45%。 6park.com
Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, both of whom initiated coverage on Supermicro this month, think the rapidly expanding AI server market still leaves plenty of room for the company to grow. But, even with the stock about 14% off its high from two weeks ago, Supermicro’s shares trade around 37 times forward earnings. That is nearly triple its three-year average and on par with Nvidia’s current multiple. The chip maker’s multiple is 10% below its own three-year average, though, because of the explosive earnings growth driven by its AI chips. Dell, whose stock has surged 45% this year, fetches less than 15 times forward earnings.  6park.com
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因此，高盛分析师Michael Ng将Supermicro的评级定为中性，称该股估值合理。FactSet的数据显示，目前将Supermicro股票评级定为买入的分析师比例已从年初的83%降至67%。 6park.com
Goldman’s Michael Ng thus set his rating for Supermicro at neutral, calling the shares “fairly valued.” The percentage of analysts who rate the stock as a buy has fallen from 83% at the start of the year to 67% currently, according to FactSet.  6park.com
   
面对当前的价格，Supermicro仍有一些发售工作可做。 6park.com
At its current price, Supermicro still has some selling to do.