China’s Role in EVs Is Splitting the Global Auto Market in Two


随着电动汽车的崛起，全球汽车市场出现一分为二的景象：一边欢迎中国制造的汽车，另一边则心存抗拒。


上海车展上的日产Ariya车型电动汽车。

随着电动汽车的崛起，全球汽车市场出现一分为二的景象：一边欢迎中国制造的汽车，另一边则心存抗拒。 6park.com
The rise of electric vehicles is dividing the global auto market into two: one that welcomes China-made cars, and the other that effectively rejects them. 6park.com
    
去年春天，一群日产汽车(Nissan)的高管聚集在位于日本横滨的公司总部，盯着一张世界地图看。 6park.com
Last spring, a group of Nissan executives huddled at the company’s headquarters in Yokohama, Japan, staring at a world map. 6park.com
   
这幅地图将全球划分为四种颜色：红色代表禁止从中国出口汽车的国家；黄色代表将来有可能禁止从中国出口汽车的国家；灰色代表未来可能会施加一些限制的国家；绿色代表没有限制或此类可能性的国家。 6park.com
The map color-coded the world in four: red, for countries that block vehicle exports from China; yellow, for countries that risk halting them in the future; gray, for countries that might place some restrictions in the future; and green, for countries without restrictions or such likelihood. 6park.com
    
这项研究旨在了解，即使在地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，日产汽车是否仍有机会出口其在中国生产的汽车，包括电动汽车。高管们发现，大约60%的国家属于该公司评定的“绿色”或“灰色”组。包括“黄色”国家在内，这一比例还会更高一些。 6park.com
The exercise was designed to find out whether Nissan had a shot at exporting cars it made in China, including electric vehicles, even as geopolitical tensions grow. The executives found that roughly 60% of the countries fell under what the company assessed as “green” or “gray.” Including the “yellow” countries, the tally was higher. 6park.com
    6park.com
日产的中国投资部门负责人松山昌史(Masashi Matsuyama)说：“从地图上看，你会发现80%的市场环境都可以接受中国制造的汽车。”该公司未透露哪些国家属于哪种颜色类别。 6park.com
“When you look at the map, you can see that 80% of the market has an environment in which it could accept” China-made cars, said Masashi Matsuyama, who heads Nissan’s China investment unit. Nissan declined to say which countries fell under which color category.



日产决定试行其出口计划。去年11月，该公司表示将于2025年开始从中国出口汽车，包括电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车，尽管尚未透露这些汽车的确切目的地。 6park.com
Nissan decided to give its export plan a go. In November, the automaker said it would start shipping vehicles from China in 2025, including electric and plug-in hybrids—though it has yet to disclose the exact destinations of those cars. 6park.com
    
无独有偶，福特(Ford)、特斯拉(Tesla)和比亚迪(BYD)都在增加从中国的出口。这些举动凸显出地缘政治正在如何重塑汽车行业，促使汽车制造商调整战略，重新规划在何地制造以及销往何处。 6park.com
Nissan is in good company: Ford, Tesla and BYD have all been increasing exports from China. Their moves underscore how geopolitics is reshaping the car industry, driving carmakers to update their strategies for where they make and sell cars. 6park.com
    
全球汽车行业的分化出现之前，电信业和互联网等领域已经出现了类似分化，世界围绕着两大经济强国日益两极化。 6park.com
The schism in the global auto sector follows similar splits in areas such as the telecom industry and the internet as the world becomes increasingly polarized around the top two economic powers. 6park.com
   
更多全球汽车制造商正在考虑增加从中国的出口，但仅限于选定的目的地。在中国生产汽车通常成本更低，尤其是电动汽车。最终进入美国市场的可能很少，但东南亚和中东等地市场将快速增长。 6park.com
More global carmakers are considering increasing exports from China—where cars, and especially EVs, are typically cheaper to make—but only to select destinations. Few are likely to end up on the U.S. market, but places such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East are rapidly growing markets.

警惕制裁

与此同时，中国汽车制造商正在欧洲和墨西哥建厂，可能是为了从那里向美国等市场出口，从而规避关税。中国汽车制造商目前在欧洲面临反补贴调查。 6park.com
Meanwhile, Chinese carmakers are setting up factories in Europe—where they face an antisubsidy probe—and in Mexico, possibly to export into markets such as the U.S. from there and get around some tariffs. 6park.com
   
全球和中国的汽车制造商对于从哪里获得某些技术和零部件，以及采用这些技术和零部件的汽车最终可能进入哪些市场也变得更加谨慎，以避免将来受到制裁或限制性举措的冲击。 6park.com
Global and Chinese carmakers are also becoming more cautious about where they get certain technologies and components, and which markets those cars with such technology and parts can end up in, to avoid getting hit by sanctions or restrictions in the future.



在华规模最大的外国汽车制造商大众汽车(Volkswagen)计划将某些中国开发的技术留在中国使用，如与自动驾驶有关的芯片和软件，以限制地缘政治紧张局势的影响。最近，该公司不得不停止向美国出口上千辆含有受制裁的中国零部件的豪华汽车。 6park.com
Volkswagen, the biggest foreign carmaker in China, plans to keep certain China-developed technology, such as chips and software linked to autonomous driving, in China to limit the fallout from geopolitical tensions. It recently had to halt imports to the U.S. of thousands of luxury cars containing a sanctioned Chinese part. 6park.com
   
据知情人士透露，中国官员今年敦促中国主要汽车制造商从国内供应商采购更多芯片。 6park.com
In China this year, officials urged major Chinese automakers to source more chips from domestic suppliers, according to people familiar with the matter. 6park.com
   
对于消费者来说，这两个区域之间可能会出现差距：一个区域越来越多地由中国制造的成本较低、技术先进的电动汽车主导，而另一个区域（可能包括美国）的汽车则价格较高，电动汽车的普及速度较慢。 6park.com
For consumers, a gap could emerge between two blocs: one region that is increasingly dominated by lower-cost, advanced-technology EVs made in China, and the other region, likely including the U.S., with more expensive cars and a slower adoption of EVs. 6park.com
   
总部位于上海的战略公司Automobility的首席执行官Bill Russo说：“在美国这样的成熟市场，新技术不太可能以同样的速度铺开，这些市场将变得越来越孤立，新技术将只能以高价推广。” 6park.com
“It’s unlikely that new technology will scale at the same pace in mature markets like the U.S.A., which will become increasingly isolated, and new technology will only be dispensed at premium prices,” said Bill Russo, chief executive of Automobility, a Shanghai-based strategy firm.

中国：亚洲的底特律

在美国，由于电动汽车的需求势头减弱，一些汽车公司一直在推迟电动汽车项目的支出计划。而在中国这个全球最大的电动汽车市场，许多公司仍在大举投资，尽管市场已拥挤不堪，许多制造商都在亏损经营。 6park.com
In the U.S., as demand for electric vehicles loses momentum, some auto companies have been delaying plans for EV spending. In China, the world’s biggest EV market, many companies are still investing heavily even as the market becomes crowded and many manufacturers operate at a loss. 6park.com
    
业内高管表示，尽管销量增长放缓，但电动汽车和其他电池动力交通工具的销量已占到三分之一，因此中国的电气化转型已步入正轨。中国正在推动汽车制造商和零部件供应商走向世界，并增加出口。 6park.com
Industry executives say China’s electric transformation is on course given that EVs and other battery-powered vehicles already account for one-third of sales, even though sales growth has been slowing. China is pushing its carmakers and parts suppliers to go global as well as export more. 6park.com
   
一些地区越来越担心廉价中国进口产品充斥全球的问题。去年，中国超越日本成为最大的汽车出口国，向海外出口了约500万辆汽车。最大的出口目的地包括墨西哥、澳大利亚和沙特。 6park.com
Fears of the world being flooded with less costly Chinese imports are growing in some regions. Last year, China surpassed Japan to become the biggest automotive exporter, shipping some five million vehicles overseas. The biggest destinations included Mexico, Australia and Saudi Arabia. 6park.com
    
由于美国已对从中国进口的汽车征收25%的额外关税，在美国很少能看到中国汽车。今年2月，美国总统拜登下令商务部对外国产汽车软件展开调查，以阻止中国电动汽车涌入美国市场。 6park.com
Chinese cars are rarely seen in the U.S., given the U.S. already levies an additional 25% tariff on vehicles imported from China. In February, President Biden ordered the Commerce Department to open an investigation into foreign-made software in cars, an effort to halt Chinese EVs from flooding the U.S. market.


特斯拉一直将上海制造的汽车出口到亚太地区等地区。

大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)的数据显示，2023年欧洲是中国制造的电动汽车的最大进口地，在340亿美元的出口额中约占40%。欧盟去年启动了对中国电动汽车制造商的反补贴调查。欧盟委员会(European Commission) 3月初称，已发现有足够证据表明中国电动汽车获得了补贴，并在采取措施，为追溯征收关税做准备。 6park.com
Europe was the biggest recipient of China-made electric vehicles in 2023, accounting for about 40% of the $34 billion exported, data from the Atlantic Council showed. The European Union last year launched an antisubsidy investigation into China’s electric-vehicle makers. In early March, the European Commission said it found sufficient evidence that vehicles were subsidized, and was taking steps to prepare for tariffs to be applied retroactively. 6park.com
   
中国称欧洲的调查是保护主义，同时呼吁美国停止对中国公司的歧视。 6park.com
China has called the European probe protectionist, while it has called on the U.S. to stop discriminating against Chinese companies. 6park.com
   
中国许多规模最大的出口商都是本土企业，比如奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile)和比亚迪，比亚迪已取代特斯拉成为全球最大的电动汽车销售商，并制定了增加出口的宏伟计划。 6park.com
Many of China’s top exporters are homegrown companies such as Chery Automobile and BYD, which has overtaken Tesla as the world’s top EV seller and has ambitious plans to increase exports. 6park.com
   
由于中国毗邻东南亚和中东等市场，全球汽车制造商也希望将在华工厂定位为出口中心。 6park.com
Global carmakers want to position their China plants as export hubs, too, given China’s proximity to markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East. 6park.com
  
特斯拉一直在向包括亚太在内的地区出口其在上海生产的汽车。中国乘用车市场信息联席会的数据显示，去年特斯拉向海外出口了约34.4万辆汽车，同比增长27%。福特一直在竭力应对中国市场销量下跌的问题，目前正把目标瞄准东南亚和美洲。福特表示，去年从中国出口了超过10万辆汽车。 6park.com
Tesla has been exporting its Shanghai-made cars to regions including the Asia-Pacific. It shipped about 344,000 vehicles overseas last year, up 27% from a year earlier, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed. Ford, which has been grappling with declining sales in China, is targeting Southeast Asia and the Americas. It said it exported more than 100,000 vehicles from China last year. 6park.com
   
丰田(Toyota)泰国公司发布的数据显示，在泰国，由于中国品牌主导了大部分电动汽车销量，包括丰田和日产在内的传统日本车企的市场份额2023年降至78%，上一年为85%。 6park.com
In Thailand, the market share of the traditionally dominant Japanese carmakers including Toyota and Nissan fell to 78% in 2023 from 85% a year earlier, as Chinese brands swept up most of the electric-vehicle sales, data released by Toyota Thailand showed. 6park.com
  
日产的松山昌史表示，从全球消费者的角度来看，中国的汽车制造技术强大到足以被全球接受。他说：“我们希望在全球战略中利用这一点。” 6park.com
From the perspective of consumers around the world, China’s carmaking technology is strong enough to be accepted globally, said Nissan’s Matsuyama. “We want to utilize that for our global strategy,” he said.