The Dark-Horse Alliance Racing Forward to Take On China


从四年前关系几近破裂到如今美菲联盟达到几十年来最牢固的状态，这一转变标志着拜登政府通过支持美国的盟友来对抗中国的战略取得了胜利。


军事人员周五在菲律宾参加实弹演习。

四年前，美国与亚洲最长久的盟友菲律宾闹矛盾，关系几近破裂。 6park.com
Four years ago, the U.S. and its oldest ally in Asia were close to breaking up. 6park.com
   
菲律宾曾宣布有意退出两国之间的一项基础防务条约。时任总统杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)倾向于重新向北京靠拢。 6park.com
The Philippines had declared it wanted to exit a cornerstone defense pact between the countries. Then-President Rodrigo Duterte favored a realignment toward Beijing.  6park.com
   
如今，美菲联盟达到了几十年来最牢固的状态。这一惊人的转变是美国发动魅力攻势、马尼拉新领导人上任以及中国在南中国海（中国称南海）对菲律宾采取强硬行动的结果。 6park.com
Today, the alliance is at its strongest in decades. The striking turnaround is the result of a U.S. charm offensive, a new leader in Manila and forceful Chinese actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea. 6park.com
  
约16,000名美国和菲律宾军事人员正在进行“肩并肩”(Balikatan)年度演习训练，演习于4月22日开始，美国的海马斯(Himars)火箭发射器和毒刺(Stinger)防空导弹在演习中亮相。演习的目的是确保两国在被迫共同参战时能够顺利地并肩作战。 6park.com
Some 16,000 American and Filipino military personnel are training in annual exercises called Balikatan, which began on April 22 and will feature America’s Himars rocket launcher and Stinger antiaircraft missiles. The goal is to make sure they can smoothly operate side-by-side if they have to go to war together. 6park.com
   
本月早些时候，菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯(Ferdinand Marcos Jr.)在不到一年的时间里第二次访问白宫。就在几天前，美国、日本、澳大利亚和菲律宾的海军舰艇和飞机在南中国海举行了联合演习，这是支持菲律宾的一次强有力的武力展示。就在几周前，美国国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)在访问菲律宾时称赞了两国关系取得的非同寻常的发展，回应了菲律宾外长马纳罗(Enrique Manalo)的表态。马纳罗曾说：“在过去一年左右的时间里，我们的关系一直在飞速发展。” 6park.com
Earlier this month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made his second visit to the White House in less than a year. Days before that, navy ships and aircraft from the U.S., Japan, Australia and the Philippines held joint drills in the South China Sea—a strong show of force in support of Manila. Just weeks prior, on a trip to the Philippines, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken lauded what he called an extraordinary expansion in ties, echoing his counterpart Enrique Manalo, who said: “We’ve been on hyperdrive over the past year or so.”  6park.com
   
这一转变标志着拜登政府通过支持美国的盟友来对抗中国的战略取得了胜利。 6park.com
The shift marks a win for the Biden administration’s strategy to counter China by shoring up America’s alliances.  6park.com
   
美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)研究美国亚洲战略的高级研究员Zack Cooper说：“中国一再过度炫耀实力，将马尼拉推向了华盛顿的怀抱。”尽管如此，他还是对美菲关系在短时间内迅速升温感到惊讶。 6park.com
“China continues to overplay its hand and drive Manila right into the arms of Washington,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute whose research focuses on U.S. strategy in Asia. Still, he said he is surprised by how quickly the relationship has accelerated in a short period. 


菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯、美国总统拜登和日本首相岸田文雄本月早些时候在白宫。


菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯去年两度访问白宫。

去年，美国获得了另外四个菲律宾军事基地的使用权，使美国在菲律宾的可用军事基地总数达到九个。其中一些基地所处位置在南中国海或台湾海峡这两个亚洲主要热点爆发冲突时将非常重要。这些基地并非由美国控制，但美军可在敌对行动中让战机从这里起飞，利用这些基地分散兵力、发射导弹并加大中国进行预测的难度。 6park.com
The U.S. gained access to four additional Philippine military bases last year, taking the total to nine. A number of them are at locations that would be significant if a conflict were to break out in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, two major flashpoints in Asia. The bases aren’t U.S.-controlled, but they are sites the American military would seek to use during hostilities to disperse its forces, launch aircraft and missiles, and complicate Beijing’s calculations. 6park.com
 
华盛顿方面正投入数以千万美元计的资金对一些跑道进行升级改造，并在这些基地建造仓库、燃料储存库和兵营，其中一些基地目前还相当简陋。拜登政府正在寻求增加1.28亿美元的建设资金。 6park.com
Washington is pouring tens of millions of dollars into upgrading runways and building warehouses, fuel storage and barracks at the sites, some of which are fairly basic. The Biden administration is seeking $128 million more for construction. 6park.com
 
美军印太司令部司令阿奎利诺(John Aquilino)上将上周在对记者的讲话中称，这些基地代表两国为建设可以共同行动和演习的场所所做的努力。他说：“如有必要，最终共同防御条约将被激活，我们将在这些地方并肩作战。” 6park.com
The sites represent efforts by the two sides to build out places where they can operate and exercise together, Adm. John Aquilino, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in remarks to reporters last week. “And then ultimately, if need be, and the mutual-defense treaty were to be activated, those are places where we would fight together,” he said.   6park.com
   
美国企业研究所的Cooper说，这很重要，因为美国在该地区只有几个行动基地。Cooper说，一旦发生冲突，美国一些知名的基地，如日本嘉手纳空军基地和美国领土关岛的安德森空军基地很可能成为中国攻击的目标。 6park.com
That is valuable because America has only a few operating bases in the region, said Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute. In a conflict, its well-known facilities such as Kadena Air Base in Japan and Andersen Air Force Base in the U.S. territory of Guam would likely be targets of Chinese attack, he said. 6park.com
 
“美国面临的真正挑战是：如何在我们几十年来在亚洲使用的少数几个基地之外实现多元化？ ” Cooper说。 6park.com
“The real challenge for the U.S. is: How do you diversify away from the handful of facilities that we’ve used in Asia over decades?” he said. 6park.com
 
Cooper表示，菲律宾是一个完美的选择，因为该国位于第一岛链的中心。第一岛链指的是从日本群岛经台湾到菲律宾和南中国海的链形岛屿带。 6park.com
Cooper said the Philippines is a perfect option because of its location in the center of the first island chain, referring to a stretch of territory from the Japanese archipelago through Taiwan to the Philippines and the South China Sea. 6park.com
 
通过繁忙的演习活动，美军越来越熟悉菲律宾的军事基地。参加今年“肩并肩”军演的是一群美国海军陆战队员，他们会模拟在与中国发生冲突时迅速向前推进，在岛屿之间快速移动。海军陆战队濒海战斗团(Marine Littoral Regiment)的成员将在距离台湾不到100英里的菲律宾岛屿上进行训练。 6park.com
U.S. forces are getting more familiar with the Philippine military sites via a busy schedule of drills. Participating in the Balikatan exercises are a group of U.S. Marines designed to rapidly move forward in a conflict with China and hop from island to island. Members of the Marine Littoral Regiment will train on Philippine islands less than 100 miles from Taiwan.


周四，菲律宾和澳大利亚军事人员在马尼拉北部的海军基地。

另一个强烈信号是，美国陆军最新型中程导弹发射系统本月抵达菲律宾，这是这种武器首次在印太地区部署。新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院(S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies)高级研究员Collin Koh说，如果从菲律宾北部发射，这套名为“台风”(Typhon)的武器系统可以打击的目标包括台湾、中国在南中国海的基地、中国大陆沿岸的目标，甚至包括更深入大陆境内的某些军事基础设施。 6park.com
In another strong signal, the U.S. Army’s newest midrange-missile launcher arrived in the Philippines this month for its first Indo-Pacific outing. From the northern Philippines, the weapon system, called Typhon, could reach targets including Taiwan, Chinese bases in the South China Sea, sites along the Chinese mainland coast and even some military infrastructure deeper inside mainland territory, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. 6park.com
  
“让我感到惊讶的是，首次部署地点选择的是菲律宾，而不是其他关系紧密得多的亚洲盟友，比如日本，”Koh说。“我们看到，美菲防务关系出现前所未有的重振。” 6park.com
“What to me is surprising is the choice of the first deployment—it’s actually the Philippines instead of so-called much closer allies in Asia like Japan,” said Koh. “We are seeing a rather unprecedented reinvigoration of U.S.-Philippines defense relations.” 6park.com
 
这一进程在过去一年中发展尤为迅速。中国的一些行动让菲律宾越来越难以对马尼拉在南中国海的一个军事前哨进行补给；中国声称对相关岛礁拥有主权。中国海警船和海上民兵船只曾与菲律宾的补给船相撞，并用水炮轰击，上个月两次造成菲律宾人员受伤。 6park.com
That process has unfolded especially rapidly over the past year. China has made it increasingly difficult for the Philippines to resupply a military outpost Manila maintains in the South China Sea, on a reef Beijing also claims. Chinese coast guard and maritime militia ships have collided with Philippine resupply boats and blasted them with water cannons, injuring Filipino personnel on two occasions last month. 6park.com
  
菲律宾正通过向全世界播报中国的战术以及拉近与美国的关系进行反击。作为回应，华盛顿表现出了强有力的支持，以证明自己是一个可靠的盟友，同时吓阻中国不要让局势进一步升级，并确保南海继续对商业活动开放。 6park.com
The Philippines is pushing back by broadcasting Chinese tactics to the world and drawing closer to the U.S. Washington in return has shown strong support to make the case it is a reliable ally, to deter China from escalating further and to ensure the South China Sea remains open for business.  


美国国务卿布林肯与菲律宾外长马纳罗

“几十年来，这个联盟一直奄奄一息，”菲律宾大学海洋事务与海洋法研究所(Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea)所长Jay Batongbacal说。“现在，由于中国一直在南中国海自作主张地行事，这给菲律宾提供了一个机会，可以借助联盟的力量，利用它来发展自己的防务能力。” 6park.com
“For decades, the alliance had been rather moribund,” said Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea in the Philippines. “Now, because of the way that China has been asserting itself in the South China Sea, this has given an opportunity to the Philippines to draw on the alliance and leverage it for developing its own defense capabilities.” 6park.com
  
他说，长期专注于国内安全行动的菲律宾军队现在终于能够获得对外防御所需的训练和经验。 6park.com
The Philippines military—long focused on internal security operations—is finally getting the training and experience it needs for external defense, he said.   6park.com
  
中国2012年夺取了南中国海的一个据点，这给美菲同盟带来沉重的压力。在中国和菲律宾船只就斯卡伯勒浅滩(Scarborough Shoal, 中国称：黄岩岛)问题进行长达数周的对峙期间，美国官员参与了幕后谈判。当中国控制该地后，马尼拉认为美国没有采取足够的措施来保护盟友。 6park.com
China’s 2012 seizure of a South China Sea site has weighed heavily on the U.S.-Philippines alliance. American officials were involved behind the scenes in negotiations during the weekslong standoff between Chinese and Philippine ships over Scarborough Shoal. When Beijing took control of the site, Manila felt the U.S. hadn’t done enough to defend its ally. 6park.com
 
当时，美国也不予说明美菲之间的共同防御条约是否涵盖在南海遭受的攻击，由此加深了菲律宾的不信任，许多菲律宾人认为美国模棱两可的态度助长了中国的气焰。在华盛顿，官员们当时担心马尼拉可能会因仰仗美国的支持而决策失误或采取过激行动，导致美国与中国对抗。 6park.com
At the time, the U.S. also declined to say whether the countries’ mutual-defense treaty covered an attack in the South China Sea, deepening distrust in the Philippines where many believe U.S. equivocation emboldened China. In Washington, officials worried that Manila, counting on U.S. support, might make a mistake or take an overzealous step, leaving the U.S. to fight China.  6park.com
 
在杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)于2016年在菲律宾上台后，美国与菲律宾的关系进一步恶化。杜特尔特对美国极度不信任，不仅阻碍了两国之间的军事演习，还阻止了美国对菲律宾军事基地的升级。他还淡化了菲律宾与中国政府在南中国海问题上的分歧，中国当时正将南中国海上的岛礁变成军事基地。 6park.com
Relations deteriorated further when Rodrigo Duterte came to power in the Philippines in 2016. Duterte was deeply distrustful of the U.S., crimped military exercises between the two and stalled U.S. upgrades of Philippine military sites. He also underplayed his country’s differences with Beijing in the South China Sea, where China was turning reefs into military bases. 


菲律宾渔民乘坐的木船驶过一艘中国海警船。

在美国开始将中国视为头号威胁的情况下，特朗普(Donald Trump)政府改变了立场，以化解菲律宾对美国长期存在的一些不满。美国政府在2019年明确表示，美菲共同防御条约适用于在南中国海上对菲律宾的攻击，拜登政府此后数十次重申了这一立场。 6park.com
As the U.S. began to see China as its No. 1 threat, the Trump administration turned to fix some of the long-festering grievances. Washington stated clearly in 2019 that the mutual-defense treaty applied to an attack on the Philippines in the South China Sea—a position the Biden administration has since repeated dozens of times.  6park.com
  
马科斯2022年当选菲律宾总统为美国提供了一个机会。几个月后，美国总统拜登在一个联合国(United Nations)活动的间隙首次会见了马科斯，迄今为止，马科斯与拜登或美国副总统哈里斯(Kamala Harris)已进行了七次会面。自2022年以来，已有多名美国官员访问菲律宾。 6park.com
Marcos’s 2022 election presented an opening—and the U.S. went for it. President Biden met Marcos on the sidelines of a United Nations event a few months later, marking the first of seven meetings to date between Marcos and either Biden or U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. A parade of U.S. officials has made its way to the Philippines since 2022. 
   6park.com
新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院的Koh说，由于不确定华盛顿和马尼拉的政局变动会如何改变未来的格局，拜登政府正试图在马科斯的任期充分把握时机。 6park.com
Koh, from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the Biden administration is trying to make the most of Marcos’s time in office, unsure of how political shifts in Washington and Manila might change the dynamic in the future.
    6park.com
他说：“我们希望确保一切准备就绪，确保未来的关系不出现问题。” 6park.com
“You want to make sure everything is in place such that you could future proof the relationship,” he said.