Taxes, Tariffs and Debt: Investors Start to Fear the Presidential Election


在美国各地，投资者开始对拜登-特朗普的再度对决感到焦虑，他们纷纷询问财务顾问此次选举会对自己的投资组合产生什么影响。



Roseville Wealth Management Group的财务顾问、董事总经理Matthew Wilson最近收到一封电子邮件： 一位客户希望尽快抛售手中的股票。 6park.com
Financial adviser Matthew Wilson recently got a frantic email: A client wanted to dump their stockholdings as soon as possible.  6park.com
    
什么原因呢？美国股市最近几个月已经大涨，这位客户担心在11月的美国总统选举前市场会变得动荡不安。Wilson说，在一次面谈中，他成功地说服客户继续持股。 6park.com
The reason? Stocks had staged a big run-up in recent months, and the client was worried that the market was about to get rocky heading into the presidential election in November. During an in-person meeting, Wilson said he was able to convince them to stay in the market. 6park.com
   
Wilson说：“用你的选票投票，不要用交易投票。” 6park.com
“Vote with your vote, don’t vote with a trade,” said Wilson, a managing director at Roseville Wealth Management Group.  6park.com
  
在美国各地，投资者正开始对美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)和前总统特朗普(Donald Trump)之间即将到来的再度对决感到焦虑不安。 6park.com
Around the country, investors are getting jittery about the coming rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump.  6park.com
  
许多投资者向他们的财务顾问询问这场对决将对他们的投资组合产生什么影响。在华尔街，策略师们已经在试图勾勒出民主党或共和党获胜情况下，分别会对股市、利率和油价产生哪些影响。 6park.com
Many are peppering their financial advisers with questions about what the contest will mean for their portfolios. On Wall Street, strategists have been trying to sketch out the implications of a blue or red win on stocks, interest rates and oil prices.  6park.com
  
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)首席美国经济学家Carl Riccadonna领导的团队写道，今年秋天的美国总统和国会选举 “将是一代人以来影响力最大的选举之一”。 6park.com
The U.S. presidential and congressional elections this fall “stand to be among the most consequential in a generation,” wrote a team at BNP Paribas led by its chief U.S. economist, Carl Riccadonna.  6park.com
拜登或特朗普可能会在移民、谁来领导美联储，甚至是如何管理美联储等各个方面做出截然不同的决定，这加剧了投资者的紧张情绪。考虑到中东冲突升级，俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争仍在持续，下一任美国总统还将带领美国度过一段全球紧张局势加剧的时期。 6park.com
Fueling the nerves are the dramatically different decisions Biden or Trump could make on everything from immigration to who leads the Federal Reserve—and even how the central bank is run. The next president would also steer the U.S. through a time of heightened global tensions, with escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine.



投资者关注的一个焦点是：特朗普政府的减税政策将在2025年后失效。 6park.com
One point of focus for investors: the Trump administration’s tax cuts, which will lapse after 2025.  6park.com
 
美国政府的支出和随之而来的大量国债发行已经令投资者焦虑不安。上述法国巴黎银行团队表示，若共和党横扫白宫和国会，将可能导致个人减税政策延长，赤字扩大。当然，对赤字的任何影响都将取决于立法者达成一致的支出和开支削减政策组合。例如，拜登已表示，他将延长特朗普时代的部分减税政策。 6park.com
Already, the government’s spending and the accompanying deluge of Treasury issuance has been making investors anxious. The BNP team said a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress would likely lead to an extension of tax cuts for individuals, and a wider deficit. Of course, any implications for the deficit would be shaped by the mix of spending and cuts that lawmakers agree on. Biden, for example, has said he would extend some Trump-era tax cuts.  6park.com
 
10年期美国国债收益率今年以来已大幅上升，最近徘徊在4.612%，一定程度上是因为美国国债的一轮发行潮和比预期更加顽固的通胀。 6park.com
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note recently hovered at 4.612%, up sharply for the year, in part because of a wave of bond issuance and stickier-than-expected inflation.  6park.com
即使在市场经历了4月份的一段艰难时期之后，相较于对于未来几周的情况而言，交易员们对今年秋季的大选似乎感到更加焦虑。 6park.com
Even after a rough patch for markets in April, traders appear more anxious about this fall’s election than they are about the coming weeks.  6park.com
 
FactSet提供的与Cboe波动率指数相关的数据显示，在衍生品市场，交易员对冲11月前后股市下跌风险的成本增加，这一迹象表明市场对大选高度担忧。 6park.com
In the derivatives market, traders have been paying more to protect against a stock-market decline around November, a sign of heightened fear about the election, data from FactSet tied to the Cboe Volatility Index show.



在今年一份长达62页的报告中，法国巴黎银行的策略师和经济学家提出了多种情景，涉及这场选举将如何塑造白宫和国会的权力格局，以及领导人可能如何影响从财政政策到清洁能源以及对中国和墨西哥征收关税等各个方面。 6park.com
In a 62-page report this year, BNP Paribas strategists and economists laid out multiple scenarios tied to how the election would shape power in the White House and Congress, as well as how leaders might influence everything from fiscal policy to clean energy and tariffs on China and Mexico.   6park.com
 
例如，在特朗普担任总统期间，美元对墨西哥比索的汇率曾因特朗普有关对墨西哥征收关税的推文而大幅波动。 6park.com
During Trump’s presidency, for example, the U.S. dollar swung wildly against the Mexican peso based on Trump’s tweets about tariffs on the country.  6park.com
 
然而，如果投资者认为自己可以预测大选前后任何资产的走势，那可能不过是自欺欺人。 6park.com
Still, investors might be fooling themselves if they think they can predict the path of any asset around the election.  6park.com
  
2016年，一些投资者曾担心特朗普获胜会使市场受到冲击。结果确实如此——但只是一瞬间的事。在大选结果逐渐揭晓的同时，股市一夜之间暴跌，然后在第二天就出现转折，掀起了总统选举后规模最大的一波股市上涨。投资者似乎喜欢特朗普的减税政策和放松监管的承诺。 6park.com
In 2016, some investors feared a Trump win would jolt markets. It did—momentarily. Stocks swooned overnight while election results trickled in, before staging a U-turn the following day and kicking off one of the biggest stock rallies in the wake of a presidential election. Investors seemed to love Trump’s tax cuts and promise of deregulation. 6park.com
 
2020年，一些投资者曾担心，不明朗的选举结果可能会让股市在数月间陷入混乱。然而从11月的大选日到当年年底，标普500指数累计大涨约11%。 6park.com
In 2020, some investors worried that a murky election result could stoke stock-market mayhem for months. The S&P 500 ended up soaring around 11% from Election Day in November through the end of the year.  6park.com
 
大选前后股市波动并不罕见。但BlackRock Fundamental Equities的数据显示，一旦不确定性过去，股市通常会上涨。在有大选的年份和没有大选的年份，股票的平均表现也没有太大差别。 6park.com
Stock volatility isn’t unusual around an election. But once the uncertainty passes, stocks typically rally, according to data from BlackRock Fundamental Equities. There also isn’t much of a difference between average stock performance during years in which an election is held and ones without a contest. 



Bel Air Investment Advisors合伙人David Sadkin说，他几乎每次与高净值客户会面时都会被问到大选的问题。他说，两党都表现出了大手笔支出的倾向，导致美国赤字不断扩大。 6park.com
David Sadkin, a partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors, said he has been asked about the election at almost every meeting he takes with his wealthy clients. He said both parties have shown an inclination to spend big, leading to widening U.S. deficits.  6park.com
  
国债发行量不断激增，在特朗普和拜登担任总统期间都是如此。这也是他提醒投资者不要围绕结果下大赌注的原因之一。 6park.com
Treasury issuance has surged, spanning both Trump and Biden’s presidencies. It’s one reason he cautions investors against making a big bet around the outcome.  6park.com
 
“影响是不可能预测的，”Sadkin说。 6park.com
“The impact is impossible to predict,” Sadkin said.