Apple Might Be Able to Phone It In Now


股价大跌已令苹果公司市值缩水，即便该公司再度发布疲软的iPhone业绩报告，受到的负面影响可能也不会那么大。


当前的iPhone 15系列正在引领连续第三个销售疲软周期。

苹果公司(Apple)最大的业务正在苦苦挣扎。投资者终于开始接受这一观点，这对有望加入科技领域AI盛会的苹果公司来说可能是件好事。 6park.com
Apple’s biggest business is struggling. The fact that investors are finally wrapping their arms around that idea could turn out to be a good thing for the company ahead of its expected entry into tech’s AI party.  6park.com
  
到目前为止，对苹果公司来说，这是相当黯淡的一年。美国联邦政府正试图打破该公司App Store的封闭生态系统，另外还对苹果公司每年从谷歌(Google)获得的丰厚报酬提出质疑。谷歌向苹果支付这笔费用，为的是使旗下热门搜索引擎成为iPhone等移动设备的默认设置。 6park.com
It has been a pretty bleak year so far for Apple. The federal government is trying to break up the company’s closed-ecosystem for its App Store and—in a separate case—challenge the lucrative payments Apple gets from Google every year to make the popular search engine the default on mobile devices including the iPhone.  6park.com
  
苹果公司在中国的市场份额也在不断减少，而中国市场历来平均占到该公司年收入的19%左右。三家第三方市场研究公司最近发布的报告显示，苹果公司在中国内地的iPhone销量急剧下降，主要归因于华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies)的重新崛起。据Counterpoint估计，华为第一季度中国市场智能手机销量同比增长70%，而苹果手机销量下滑19%。国际数据公司(International Data Corporation, 简称IDC)估计的苹果手机销量降幅更为温和，为7%。但该机构也估计，同期华为手机销量增长一倍多。 6park.com
The company is also losing ground in China, a market that historically has accounted for about 19% of Apple’s annual revenue. Three third-party market-research firms recently issued reports showing Apple experiencing a sharp drop in iPhone unit sales in mainland China, mostly thanks to a resurgent Huawei Technologies. Counterpoint estimates that Huawei’s smartphone unit sales jumped 70% year over year in the March quarter while Apple’s slid by 19%. IDC estimated a more mild 7% drop for Apple, though it also estimates that Huawei’s unit sales more than doubled in the same time frame. 



苹果公司将于周四下午发布第二财季报告，在此之前，这样一连串的消息通常会对该公司股价造成不利影响。但苹果公司股价已陷入低迷，今年以来下跌约12%，在估值超1万亿美元的大型科技公司中表现最差，远远落后其他公司。微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)、英伟达(Nvidia)、Meta Platforms和谷歌母公司Alphabet今年迄今的涨幅中值为23%。更值得注意的是，苹果股价下跌使其预估市盈率降至25倍左右，与五年平均水平一致，较去年夏天下降了16%以上，当时对该公司Vision Pro混合现实头戴设备的炒作助推市盈率超过30倍。 6park.com
Such a bum run of news would normally be a poor setup for Apple’s stock ahead of its fiscal-second-quarter report, due Thursday afternoon. But the shares are already in a funk, down around 12% this year. That is the worst performance by far among megacap techs valued at more than $1 trillion. Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet have logged a median gain of 23% for the year. More notably, the drop has put Apple’s multiple to around 25 times forward earnings, which is in line with its five-year average and down more than 16% from last summer, when hype over the company’s Vision Pro mixed-reality headset helped drive the stock above 30 times.  6park.com
 
苹果估值下降已引起人们的兴趣。Bernstein分析师Toni Sacconaghi周一早间将苹果股票评级上调至买入，并指出该股估值“受疲弱的iPhone15周期以及苹果中国业务结构性受损相关担忧影响已大幅下修”。 6park.com
The lower valuation is already drawing interest. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi upgraded Apple’s shares to a buy rating on Monday morning, noting that the stock “has de-rated significantly amid a weak iPhone 15 cycle and fears that Apple’s China business is structurally impaired.” That helped give Apple’s shares a 3.7% lift in morning trades. 6park.com
  
尽管如此，该股今年以来相对疲软的表现应有助于缓和市场对预期中低迷财报的任何负面反应。有分析师预计iPhone营收将同比下降10%，这将是该关键业务部门三年多来最严重的降幅。这一期间苹果所有设备部门的收入预计都将同比下降，这将是至少十年来首次出现这种情况。服务收入预计同比增长11%。对公司前景的期望也不会太高；分析师预计，苹果6月份财季的总营收同比增幅将低于2%。 6park.com
Still, the stock’s relative weakness this year should help temper any negative reaction to what is expected to be a weak report. Analysts expect iPhone revenue to fall 10% year over year—the worst drop for that key business unit in more than three years. Revenue from all of Apple’s device segments is expected to show a year-over-year decline for the period, which would be the first time that has happened in at least a decade. Service revenue is expected to rise 11% year over year. Hopes are modest for the company’s outlook as well; analysts expect Apple’s total revenue to rise less than 2% year over year in the June quarter. 



苹果近期面临的最大挑战将是长期以来不愿谈论任何新东西。该公司已强烈暗示了对生成式AI的兴趣，但目前仍不清楚这种兴趣是会体现在新型软件和服务上，还是会体现在具备AI功能的iPhone上。 6park.com
Apple’s biggest challenge in the near term will be its longstanding reluctance to talk about anything new. The company has given strong hints about its interest in generative artificial intelligence, but it remains unclear if that will manifest in new types of software and services or in an AI-enabled iPhone.  6park.com
  
外界普遍预计，苹果将在6月份的开发者大会上对AI愿景做更多阐述。其他大型科技公司正更多地关注生成式AI服务，但苹果以硬件为主的商业模式意味着端侧AI可能会对销售产生更大影响。 6park.com
Apple is widely expected to lay out more of its AI vision at its developers conference in June. Other big techs are focusing more on generative AI services, but Apple’s hardware-dominated business model means on-device AI could have a bigger impact on sales.  6park.com
  
Bernstein分析师Toni Sacconaghi在近期给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果苹果收入增长15%，与搭载OLED屏幕的iPhone 10保持一致，那么该公司收入将增加300亿美元。” 6park.com
“If Apple saw a 15% increase in revenues, in line with the OLED iPhone 10, this would be a $30 billion uplift to revenues,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a recent note to clients.  6park.com
 
iPhone可能需要这样的帮助。长期以来，苹果一直在高端产品领域占据主导地位，但智能手机是一个成熟市场，用户换机周期更长。当前的iPhone 15系列正在引领连续第三个销售疲软周期；据接受Visible Alpha调查的分析师的平均预期，本财年全球iPhone销量将下降1%，而上一财年下降了4%，2022财年仅增长1%。 6park.com
The iPhone could use the help. Apple has long dominated the premium category, but smartphones are a mature market, with users holding on to their devices for longer periods. The current iPhone 15 family is leading the third consecutive cycle of weak sales; analysts project a 1% drop in global iPhone unit sales for the current fiscal year following a 4% decline last year and a gain of only 1% in fiscal 2022, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.  6park.com
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一款有AI功能的iPhone可否帮助扭转销量颓势还不确定。幸运的是，苹果的市值已不再取决于旗下新产品能否大卖。 6park.com
An AI iPhone might or might not reverse that trend. Fortunately, Apple’s market value is no longer riding its new gadgets’ becoming surefire hits.