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Jay Powell’s dilemma: the US economy is too strong to cut rates 粘性通胀意味着美联储在11月大选前降低借贷成本的可能性较小。
Sticky inflation means the Federal Reserve less likely to reduce borrowing costs before November election. 6park.com
美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)希望今年能从美联储那里得到提振。然而，周三，美联储给了他的这些希望一个沉重的打击。
President Joe Biden was hoping for a lift from the Federal Reserve this year. On Wednesday, the Fed dealt those hopes a blow. 6park.com
6park.comJay Powell, the central bank’s chair, confirmed what many have suspected for some time: interest rate cuts in the world’s biggest economy are not imminent. The economy remains too hot to start loosening monetary policy and the Fed’s mission to beat inflation back to its 2 per cent target is not complete. 6park.com美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)确认了许多人长期以来的猜测：世界最大的经济体并不会立即降息。经济仍然过热，现在还不是开始放松货币政策的时机，而且美联储将通胀率降至2%的任务还未完成。
6park.comThe high borrowing costs American voters complain about are likely to linger at least until November’s presidential election. 6park.com美国选民所抱怨的高额借贷成本可能至少会持续到11月的总统选举。
6park.comIt marks a dilemma for Biden and Powell. The US economy is strong: humming along at a pace above those of other advanced economies, and close to full employment. But that strength is a big reason why the Fed is likely to leave rates higher than voters, or the president, would like. 6park.com这让拜登和鲍威尔陷入了两难的境地。美国经济强劲，增长速度超过其他发达经济体，并且接近充分就业。然而，正是这种强劲，使得美联储可能将利率维持在选民或总统所期望的更高水平。
6park.comThe Federal Open Market Committee admitted as much on Wednesday in Washington, noting it had made little headway in recent months towards hitting the central bank’s inflation goal. The language in its statement all but ruled out a cut in June, when the Fed meets next. 6park.com美联储公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)周三在华盛顿承认，近几个月来在实现央行通胀目标方面几乎没有取得任何进展。其声明中的措辞几乎排除了在6月份，即下次联邦储备委员会会议时进行降息的可能性。
6park.comHigh rates would “need more time to do their job”, Powell said, and it would “take longer” for rate-setters to be confident enough to begin cutting them — words that immediately cast doubt on cuts in July too. 6park.com鲍威尔表示，高利率“需要更多的时间来发挥其作用”，并且利率设定者们需要“更长的时间”才能有足够的信心开始降息——这些话立即让人对7月份可能的降息产生了怀疑。
6park.comIt leaves the world’s most important central bank in an awkward position ahead of an election between Biden and Donald Trump. Rate cuts late in the election campaign could appear to favour Biden. Not cutting might help Trump. 6park.com这使得全球最重要的中央银行在拜登和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的选举前处于一个尴尬的位置。在选举活动的后期降低利率可能会被视为偏向拜登。而不降低利率可能会对特朗普有所帮助。
6park.comPowell was adamant in his post-meeting press conference that the central bank’s rates will not be set according to this year’s political calendar. That leaves a cut at September’s Fed meeting in play — though analysts believe that the move would come too close to the vote on November 5. 6park.com鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上坚决表示，央行的利率设定不会受今年的政治日历影响。这使得在9月份的美联储会议上降息成为可能--不过分析人士认为，此举距离11月5日的投票时间太近了。
6park.com“It’s going to be right in between two presidential debates,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon, referring to the September 18 FOMC vote. “The FOMC, appropriately, cares about the public reception to its actions. Around the time of an election, the public may be confused about its intent. You need to pick a spot where you’re sure the public will understand why you’re doing what you’re doing.” 6park.com“这将正好在两场总统辩论之间，”德雷福斯和梅隆的首席经济学家文森特•莱因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)在谈到9月18日的FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）投票时说。“FOMC非常关注公众对其行动的反应。在选举期间，公众可能对其意图感到困惑。你需要选择一个你确信公众会理解你为什么要这么做的时机。” 6park.com 6park.comHeading into elections with the US’s benchmark borrowing cost at a 23-year-high range of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent — and with mortgage rates and credit card interest levels far higher — would be a blow to Biden’s efforts to win over voters who think the economy was stronger under Trump. 6park.com在美国基准借贷成本达到23年来的高点，即5.25%至5.5%，而抵押贷款和信用卡的利率远高于此的情况下进行选举，这将对拜登争取那些认为在特朗普领导下的经济更强劲的选民的努力产生冲击。
6park.comThat the Fed has now been forced to leave rates higher for even longer is a grim reminder that, for almost all of Biden’s first term, inflation has been uncomfortably high. 6park.com美联储现在被迫在更长的时间内维持更高的利率，这严峻地提醒我们，在拜登的第一个任期内，通胀率几乎一直高得令人不安。
6park.comPrice pressures have acutely affected the cost of food, energy and housing — goods that Powell on Wednesday referred to as “the fundamentals of life” — making inflation the number one economic issue facing the electorate by far. 6park.com价格压力严重影响了食品、能源和住房的成本，这些是鲍威尔周三所称的“生活的基本要素”，使得通胀成为选民当前面临的最大经济问题。
6park.comThe Fed chair also cast doubt on whether the central bank would be able to pull off a soft landing, guiding inflation back down to 2 per cent without crashing the economy or inducing widespread job losses. 6park.com美联储(The Fed)主席也对是否能够实现软着陆，即在不引发经济崩溃或大规模失业的情况下，将通胀率引导回到2%表示怀疑。
6park.comPowell was “not giving up” on a Goldilocks scenario, he said on Wednesday. The arrival of more workers into the US labour market, for example — a benefit to the economy now overshadowed by political rhetoric about immigration — had helped subdue price pressures in 2023, he noted. It could “work to bring inflation down” this year too. 6park.com鲍威尔在周三表示，他“不会放弃”对“金发姑娘”情境的期待。他指出，例如，更多的劳动力进入美国劳动力市场——尽管这对经济的益处现在被有关移民的政治言论所掩盖——已经帮助抑制了2023年的价格压力。他认为，这也可能在今年“有助于降低通胀”。
6park.comThe Fed chair remained upbeat, saying his “personal forecast” was that the central bank would make some progress towards 2 per cent this year, as rental costs stopped rising so quickly. Even so, he did not know the cooling would be “sufficient” to cut rates in 2024. 6park.com美联储主席仍然保持乐观态度，他表示，他的“个人预测”是，随着租金成本不再快速上涨，央行今年将朝着2%的目标取得一些进展。然而，他并不确定这种降温是否“足够”在2024年降低利率。
6park.com“We’re going to have to let the data lead us on that,” he said. 6park.com他说：“我们必须让数据来引领我们。” 6park.com 6park.comThose messages on Wednesday from the Fed all contrasted with more bullish forecasts it offered earlier in the year, which signalled that the soft landing was its baseline scenario. 6park.com美联储周三发布的这些信息，与其年初提供的更为乐观的预测形成了鲜明对比，当时的预测表明软着陆是其基本预期。
6park.comYet for both Biden and the investors that follow the Fed’s every move, Wednesday’s dose of hard reality from the central bank could have been worse. 6park.com然而，对于拜登和那些密切关注美联储每一步动态的投资者来说，周三来自中央银行的这一剂硬现实本来可能更糟。
6park.comA series of data releases pointing to higher-than-expected inflation had fed concerns among some market participants that the next move in rates could be up. Powell allayed those worries on Wednesday, saying rate rises to squelch the inflation uptick were “unlikely”. Stocks listed in New York rose initially, before falling later in the day. 6park.com一系列数据显示通胀高于预期，这引发了一些市场参与者对利率可能会上升的担忧。然而，鲍威尔在周三消除了这些担忧，他表示通过加息来抑制通胀上涨的可能性“不大”。纽约上市的股票最初上涨，但在当天晚些时候下跌。
6park.com“Clearly the threshold to raise is higher than to cut, but both are high,” said KPMG US chief economist Diane Swonk. 6park.com毕马威(KPMG)美国首席经济学家黛安•斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“显然，提高的门槛比降低的门槛要高，但两者都很高。” 6park.com 6park.com“The Fed is not confident about how quickly it can get inflation to 2 per cent, but it’s confident that rates are high enough,” said TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz. 6park.com“美联储对于将通胀率快速提升到2%并不自信，但它确信利率已经足够高，”朗博宏观研究(TS Lombard)首席经济学家史蒂文•布利茨(Steven Blitz)表示。
6park.comAnd Powell was also quick to point out that the Fed’s position on rates was a reflection of the strength of the US economy — a subtle dose of good news for anyone watching in the White House. 6park.com鲍威尔也迅速指出，美联储对利率的立场实际上是对美国经济实力的反映——这对于在白宫关注的人来说无疑是个好消息。
6park.comPowell acknowledged the Fed would trail its counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic — such as the European Central Bank, which is set to cut in June — but only because the American economy was so much healthier than others. 6park.com鲍威尔承认，美联储将在一定程度上落后于大西洋另一边的同行，如计划在6月份降息的欧洲央行(European Central Bank)，但这仅仅是因为美国经济比其他经济体更为健康。
6park.com“The difference between the United States and other countries that are now considering rate cuts is that they’re just not having the kind of growth we’re having,” he said. “They have their inflation performing like ours, or maybe a little better, but they’re not experiencing the kind of growth we’re experiencing. 6park.com他说：“美国与其他正在考虑降息的国家的区别在于，他们并未实现我们所经历的那种增长。他们的通胀表现与我们相当，甚至可能稍好，但他们并未体验到我们所拥有的增长。” 6park.com 6park.com“We actually have the luxury of having strong growth and a strong labour market, very low unemployment, high job creation, and all of that,” he added. “And we can be patient and we’ll be careful and cautious as we approach the decision to cut rates.” 6park.com他补充道：“实际上，我们享有强劲的经济增长、稳健的劳动力市场、极低的失业率以及高就业创造力等优势。我们可以保持耐心，并在考虑降息决定时，我们将会谨慎行事。”
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