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投毒铁证：美国高层去年9月就知道武汉要发生新冠瘟疫 6park.com文章刊登于美国顶尖政治杂志《外交政策》。 6park.com--华盛顿副总裁去年九月就知道武汉要发生新冠瘟疫，所以他很担忧！ 6park.com--去年9月，我在华盛顿...我问了...曾担任情报分析师...的高管....问题：“您最担心的是什么？” 这位先生不加思索地回答到：“一种高度传染性的病毒，始于中国某处并迅速传播。” 6park.com原文 ”新冠危机：美国历史上最严重的情报失败” 6park.com这是比珍珠港和 9/11更扎眼的失败--全是唐纳德·川普领导的过错 6park.com文 | Micah Zenko 6park.com译 | 新约客 6park.com美国《外交政策》杂志 6park.com2020年3月25日 6park.com6park.com去年9月，我在华盛顿与一家《财富》（Fortune）100强公司的风险管理部门副总裁会面。我问了这位以前曾担任情报分析师很长一段时间的高管一个您会向任何风险主管问的问题：“您最担心的是什么？” 这位先生不加思索地回答到：“一种高度传染性的病毒，始于中国某处并迅速传播。” 这位副总裁的公司在整个东亚都设有办事处，他解释了公司随后采取的预防性措施，以应对这一潜在的威胁。 6park.com 6park.com自从新型冠状病毒席卷全球以来，我经常想到这个人的先见之明的风险计算。大多数领导者缺乏进行基于风险的日常地平线扫描(注2)的自觉，只有更少的人仍然制定必要的应急计划。更有远见的领导者则具有远见卓识，可以预先正确地识别出最大的威胁，从而提前制定和实施这些计划。 6park.com川普令美国人民跌入险境 6park.com 可以说，川普政府在认真对待情报界关于新冠状病毒（COVID-19）爆发的连续不断的反复警告（注3），以及大力推行与此预计的威胁相称的全国响应计划方面，全部都失败了。联邦政府自己就有资源和权力来领导公共和私人利益相关者应对该病毒造成的可预见危害。然而不幸的是，川普政府官员做出了一系列的判断（最大限度地淡化了COVID-19的危害）和决定（拒绝采取必要的紧急行动），致使美国人民跌落进本不会进入的险境之中。 6park.com《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国情报机构在一月和二月一直向川普政府报告新冠状病毒大流行的警报，所有的危险被川普极力淡化了。 6park.com简而言之，川普政府给美国人民带来了灾难性的战略意外。与以往的战略突袭不同—珍珠港事件、1979年的伊朗革命，尤其是911事件—现在正在发生的这场灾难是由前所未有的漠不关心，甚至是蓄意的疏忽造成的。如果说9/11委员会的报告将基地组织的袭击归咎于罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)总统到乔治·w·布什(George W. Bush)政府，而正在蔓延的新冠状病毒危机则完完全全是现任白宫的责任。 6park.com川普系统红灯在闪 6park.com9/11委员会报告的第8章（注4）的标题，“系统红灯在闪”，正来源于中央情报局前局长乔治·特纳特（George Tenet）在2002年夏天所说的话。当时，情报界的许多报告都表明美国境内即将发生航空恐怖袭击。不顾一些反恐官员已经发出的警告和疯狂的努力，9/11委员会仍然确定：“我们看不到任何证据表明该密谋的进展受到任何政府行动的干扰。……时间不多了。” 6park.com 9/11委员会报告的第8章的标题，“系统红灯在闪” 6park.com上周，《华盛顿邮报》报道了情报界在一二月连续向白宫发出新冠状病毒警告，而这些警报对深受川普影响的高级政府官员没产生什么影响。唐纳德·川普总统从1月22日开始（注5）对新冠病毒进行不断的嘲讽，这无疑对他们产生了影响：“我们已经完全控制了它。这是一个从中国来的人，我们可以控制住它。就会好的。” 6park.com新锐政治视频媒体 Recount 的这个视频很直观地展现了川普是如何从持续地企图淡化新冠疫情的危险到最终不得不承认危机已经来到门口。 6park.com川普的错误判断何以被贯彻执行 6park.com到目前为止，川普统的领导风格中有三点令人痛苦而显而易见的事实，可以解释为什么美国人现在正面临的日益严重的新冠状病毒大流行。 6park.com首先，一个事实是，一旦他绝对相信任何东西，不管他对此考虑了多少，信息不灵通还是不准确，他都会完全依赖于最初的印象或判断。领导者通常傲慢自大，过分自信。对于许多人来说，权力的升级就证明了他们内在的智慧。但是，真正明智的领导人会真诚地寻求反馈和批评，积极开放，勤于思考，从善如流。众所周知，川普缺乏这些素养。 6park.com其次，特朗普的判断具有很高的传染性，几乎感染了与其接触的每位官员或顾问的思想和行为。总统将自己包围在跟他一样看事物，一样想问题，一样做事情的人里，对于这些“身边人”而言，这种影响力自然不足为奇，然而，他言而无当臭名昭著的的评论对那些曾经荣光重返沙场的军事、情报和商业领袖，竟然也产生了令人触目的影响。如果有人不能够紧跟总统，他们就面临解雇或者随时可能被解雇。其中最有名的例子，就是近日有报道（注6）称，总统对不可或缺的安东尼·福奇（Anthony Fauci，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长，下图）失去了耐心。 6park.com第三，糟糕的判断很快传染了联邦政府的所有决策部门，连合理的质疑都几乎没有，更不要说遇到任何抵抗。一般来说，联邦机构由白宫认为最有能力执行政策的官员领导，这些官员通常享有一定程度的自治权，不从属于川普。更有甚者，历史上无党派倾向的国家安全或情报领导职位，也不再是拥有足够丰富的经验或专业知识以应对非政治职业人士提出的担忧的人士，取而代之的，这些职位也被愿意与白宫结盟的人充斥。 6park.com以上，川普最初的错误预判和陈述于是得以在执行层面贯彻实施。 6park.com川普将令美国人民付出数十年的代价 6park.com上述同一篇《华盛顿邮报》的报道里，一位匿名美国官员令人震惊地引用了9/11委员会报告第8章那句著名的引言：“可能连唐纳德·川普自己都没想到，但政府中的许多人却明白-他们根本没法让他对此做任何事情。系统红灯在闪。” 6park.com 既然川普早已得出结论，新冠状病毒根本不可能对美国构成威胁，那么情报机构，运用流行病学模型的医学专家或公共卫生官员，也就不大可能再告诉白宫有什么不一样的情报。 6park.com就像前国家安全顾问亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）那句流传很广的名言，对于情报机构的警告未能得到人们的认可，他说，“您警告过我，但没有说服我。” 6park.com而川普总统的大脑完全无法接受任何不同的观点，即使警报再准确，也一样无法说服他。 6park.com在新冠状病毒爆发的初期，白宫的置身事外与漠不关心将是任何现代总统所能做出的代价最高的决定之一。 6park.com清晰的警告，关键的决策要点，曾经都在能够令美国本来可以做得足够好的足够长的时间内，摆在这些官员面前。 6park.com但是，永远不要忘记他们浪费远见，浪费时间的恩赐的方式，更不要忘记他们浪费的原因： 6park.com川普从一开始就是错误的，他的核心圈子更在过长的时间里推进了他的错误，直到今天，依然政策不力。 6park.com而美国人民，现在，将付出数十年的代价。 6park.com注1：Foreign Policy，由政治学家亨廷顿（Samuel Phillips Huntington）及沃伦·曼舍尔（Warren Manshel）共同创办的美国学术刊物； 6park.com注2：Horizon Scanning，地平线扫描是一种通过系统地审查潜在威胁和机会，发现重要事态发展早期迹象的技术。扎实的‘地平线扫描’能够提供制定战略、预测未来的发展背景，从而获得充足的准备时间。 6park.com注3：https://reurl.cc/KkrRd9 ，据《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国情报机构在一月和二月一直在向川普政府报告有关新冠状病毒造成危险警告。 6park.com注4：https://reurl.cc/Qd6xYq ，9/11委员会报告： 6park.com注5：https://reurl.cc/d0xA1D ，《纽约时报》详细列出川普在1月是如何淡化新冠病毒流行的危险的。 6park.com注6：https://reurl.cc/5l2zDM ，《纽约时报》报道，安东尼·福奇时常纠正川普有关新冠状病毒传播的虚假言论，令总统越来越感到担忧，对这位倍受美国人信赖的流行病专家失去了耐心。 6park.com
The Coronavirus Is the Worst Intelligence Failure in U.S. HistoryIt’s more glaring than Pearl Harbor and 9/11—and it’s all the fault of Donald Trump’s leadership.
6park.com
By
Micah Zenko |
March 25, 2020, 1:52 PM
6park.com Former first lady Laura Bush and former President George W.
Bush greet President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump outside
of Blair House in Washington on Dec. 4, 2018. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
6park.com
Last September, I met the vice president for risk for a
Fortune 100 company in Washington, D.C. I asked the executive—who
previously had a long career as an intelligence analyst—the question you
would ask any risk officer: “What are you most worried about?” Without
pausing, this person replied, “A highly contagious virus that begins
somewhere in China and spreads rapidly.” This vice president, whose
company has offices throughout East Asia, explained the preventative
mitigating steps the company had subsequently adopted to counter this
potential threat.
6park.com
6park.comLast September, I met the vice president for risk for a
Fortune 100 company in Washington, D.C. I asked the executive—who
previously had a long career as an intelligence analyst—the question you
would ask any risk officer: “What are you most worried about?” Without
pausing, this person replied, “A highly contagious virus that begins
somewhere in China and spreads rapidly.” This vice president, whose
company has offices throughout East Asia, explained the preventative
mitigating steps the company had subsequently adopted to counter this
potential threat. 6park.com
6park.comSince the novel coronavirus has swept the world, I have often thought
about this person’s prescient risk calculus. Most leaders lack the
discipline to do routine risk-based horizon scanning, and fewer still
develop the requisite contingency plans. Even rarer is the leader who
has the foresight to correctly identify the top threat far enough in
advance to develop and implement those plans. 6park.comSuffice it to say, the Trump administration has cumulatively failed, both in taking seriously the specific, repeated intelligence community
warnings about a coronavirus outbreak and in vigorously pursuing the
nationwide response initiatives commensurate with the predicted threat.
The federal government alone has the resources and authorities to lead
the relevant public and private stakeholders to confront the foreseeable
harms posed by the virus. Unfortunately, Trump officials made a series
of judgments (minimizing the hazards of COVID-19) and decisions
(refusing to act with the urgency required) that have needlessly made
Americans far less safe. 6park.comIn short, the Trump administration forced a catastrophic strategic
surprise onto the American people. But unlike past strategic
surprises—Pearl Harbor, the Iranian revolution of 1979, or especially
9/11—the current one was brought about by unprecedented indifference,
even willful negligence. Whereas, for example, the 9/11 Commission Report
assigned blame for the al Qaeda attacks on the administrations of
presidents Ronald Reagan through George W. Bush, the unfolding
coronavirus crisis is overwhelmingly the sole responsibility of the
current White House. 6park.comChapter 8
of the 9/11 Commission Report was titled, “The System Was Blinking
Red.” The quote came from former CIA Director George Tenet, who was
characterizing the summer of 2001, when the intelligence community’s
multiple reporting streams indicated an imminent aviation terrorist
attack inside the United States. Despite the warnings and frenzied
efforts of some counterterrorism officials, the 9/11 Commission
determined “We see little evidence that the progress of the plot was
disturbed by any government action. … Time ran out.” 6park.comLast week, the Washington Post reported
6park.com 6park.com 6park.comBy now, there are three painfully obvious observations about Trump’s
on the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence
community presented to the White House in January and February. These
alerts made little impact upon senior administration officials, who were
undoubtedly influenced by President Donald Trump’s constant derision of
the virus, which he began
on Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming
in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just
fine.” 6park.com
leadership style that explain the worsening coronavirus pandemic that
Americans now face. First, there is the fact that once he believes
absolutely anything—no matter how poorly thought-out, ill-informed, or
inaccurate—he remains completely anchored to that initial impression or
judgment. Leaders are unusually hubristic and overconfident; for many,
the fact that they have risen to elevated levels of power is evidence of
their inherent wisdom. But truly wise leaders authentically solicit
feedback and criticism, are actively open thinkers, and are capable of
changing their minds. By all accounts, Trump lacks these enabling
competencies. 6park.comSecond, Trump’s judgments are highly transmissible, infecting the
thinking and behavior of nearly every official or advisor who comes in
contact with the initial carrier. Unsurprisingly, the president
surrounds himself with people who look, think, and act like he does.
Yet, his inaccurate or disreputable comments also have the remarkable
ability to become recycled by formerly honorable military, intelligence,
and business leaders. And if somebody does not consistently parrot the
president’s proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it
is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time—most notably
the recent report
of the president’s impatience with the indispensable Anthony Fauci, the
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. 6park.comAnd, third, the poor judgments soon contaminate all the policymaking
arms of the federal government with almost no resistance or even
reasonable questioning. Usually, federal agencies are led by those
officials whom the White House believes are best able to implement
policy. These officials have usually enjoyed some degree of autonomy;
not under Trump. Even historically nonpartisan national security or
intelligence leadership positions have been filled by people who are
ideologically aligned with the White House, rather than endowed with the
experience or expertise needed to push back or account for the concerns
raised by career nonpolitical employees. 6park.comThus, an initial incorrect assumption or statement by Trump cascades into day-to-day policy implementation. 6park.com
The same Post report featured the following stunning passage
Given that Trump concluded early on that the coronavirus simply could
from an anonymous U.S. official: “Donald Trump may not have been
expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were—they
just couldn’t get him to do anything about it. The system was blinking
red.” That latter passage is an obvious reference to that aforementioned
central finding of the 9/11 Commission Report. 6park.com
not present a threat to the United States, perhaps there is nothing
that the intelligence community, medical experts employing
epidemiological models, or public health officials could have told the
White House that would have made any difference. Former National
Security Advisor Henry Kissinger is reputed
to have said after an intelligence community warning went unrecognized,
“You warned me, but you didn’t convince me.” Yet, a presidential brain
trust wholly closed off to contrarian, though accurate, viewpoints is
incapable of being convinced. 6park.comThe White House detachment and nonchalance during the early stages of
the coronavirus outbreak will be among the most costly decisions of any
modern presidency. These officials were presented with a clear
progression of warnings and crucial decision points far enough in
advance that the country could have been far better prepared. But the
way that they squandered the gifts of foresight and time should never be
forgotten, nor should the reason they were squandered: Trump was
initially wrong, so his inner circle promoted that wrongness
rhetorically and with inadequate policies for far too long, and even
today. Americans will now pay the price for decades. 6park.com
6park.com6park.com
Micah Zenko is the co-author of Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans. 6park.com 6park.com 6park.com View
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