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惠誉维持长江电力“A+”国际信用评级不变
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惠誉维持惠誉维持长江电力“A+”国际信用评级不变“A+”国际信用评级不变

2019年,惠誉继续给予长江电力“A+”评级,展望稳定。惠誉评级是与标准普尔、穆迪齐名的全球三大国际评级机构之一,致力于提供及时、准确和前瞻性评级意见的信用评级公司。 6park.com

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RATING ACTION COMMENTARY

惠誉确认中国三峡集团和长江电力的评级为'A+';展望稳定

Wed 09 Oct, 2019 - 3:25 AM ET 6park.com

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Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Shanghai-09 October 2019: 本文章英文原文最初于2019年9月10日发布于:Fitch Affirms China Three Gorges and Yangtze Power at 'A+'; Outlook Stable 6park.com


惠誉评级已确认中国长江三峡集团公司(中国三峡集团)和中国长江电力股份有限公司(长江电力)的长期外币和本币发行人违约评级及高级无抵押评级为'A+',展望稳定。惠誉同时确认长江电力的短期外币和本币发行人违约评级为'F1+'。完整评级行动列表请见本文末尾。 6park.com


惠誉根据其《政府相关企业评级标准》将中国三峡集团的评级与中国主权信用评级(A+/稳定)等同,这是基于,鉴于中国三峡集团在供电、防洪抗旱、改善航运条件和环保方面对中国政府的战略重要性及其持续获得政府提供的政策和财政支持,其获得政府支持的可能性很高。长江电力的评级与其母公司中国三峡集团(对长江电力持股62%)的评级等同是基于,惠誉根据其《母子公司评级关联性标准》评定这对母子公司之间的战略关联性强。 6park.com


关键评级驱动因素
与政府的关联性为"很强":惠誉评定中国三峡集团的法律地位及政府持股和控制程度为"很强"。中国三峡集团是国务院国有资产监督管理委员会(国务院国资委)直接全资拥有的一家重点国有企业,经中国最高当局授权履行长江流域可再生能源生产和环保的政策性职能。 6park.com


政府支持力度为"很强":惠誉评定中国三峡集团以往和预期获得政府支持的力度为"很强"。政府通过三峡工程建设基金(其资金源自全国范围内征收的电价附加费),以大规模股权注入的形式为三峡工程的建设提供了大量资金。惠誉预计,中国三峡集团将继续获得大量补贴用于防洪和通航。该公司获得的无形支持包括受政府委托建设资源充沛、能盈利的水电站。该支持足以令中国三峡集团保持投资级别的独立信用状况。 6park.com


违约带来的影响为"强":鉴于三峡工程的高度政治敏感性,惠誉评定中国三峡集团违约带来的社会政治影响为"强"。中国三峡集团是中国领先的水电生产企业,旗下四大水电站向中国12个省份输送低成本电力。该公司还承担着防洪、抗旱、改善航运条件和供水等重要职能。惠誉评定中国三峡集团违约带来的融资影响为"很强",因为该公司是国内和国际市场上活跃的债券发行人,且境内外信贷机构均认为该公司与中国政府密切关联。该公司违约将给中国政府带来严重的声誉风险,并制约其他政府相关企业的融资渠道。 6park.com


水电项目表现稳健:中国三峡集团已投产的四大水电站——三峡电站、葛洲坝电站、向家坝电站和溪洛渡电站——2018年在发电量和电价方面都表现强劲。四大电站的发电量增长2.2%至215.5太瓦時。近年来,长江主要支流(雅砻江和金沙江)上建成或在建的水电站数量增加,提升了上游水库的蓄水能力,使中国三峡集团主要水电站的发电量和稳定性得以提高。长江电力表示,其2018年发电量中有4.6%即9.9太瓦時归功于其水电站的水流协调。 6park.com


2018年,尽管以低于基准电价的市场价格结算的电量较高,但四大电站的平均售价保持平稳,为276.9元人民币/兆瓦时(2017年为276.8元人民币/兆瓦时)。惠誉依然认为,三峡电站和葛洲坝电站具有竞争力的价格以及上海和浙江等客户省份的良性市场竞争,使得中国三峡集团在很大程度上免受价格波动的影响。 6park.com


扩张至水务业务:为响应政府保护长江沿岸省份环境的政策,中国三峡集团一直在通过水或废水处理项目(包括处理设施和管道)向水务业务扩张。该公司已与长江沿岸的省级或地级政府签订协议,并寻求与建筑和环境公司的合作。中国三峡集团在四个城市赢得了五个政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目,总投资达177亿元人民币。惠誉认为,该扩张有助于中国三峡集团实现业务多元化,但与该公司的大型水电站相比,PPP项目的资本收益率通常较低。 6park.com


资本支出增加:惠誉预计,2019年至2022年间中国三峡集团每年资本支出将从2015年至2017年间的250亿到300亿元人民币、2018年的410亿元人民币增至600亿元人民币,主要原因包括:为了能够享受最后期限为2021年底的0.85元人民币/千瓦时的电价,公司加快了乌东德和白鹤滩水电站的建设步伐并加大了海上风电项目的投资,以及向水务业务的扩张。2019年上半年中国三峡集团的资本支出较去年的166亿元人民币增加了64%至272亿元人民币。惠誉预计,未来几年长江电力将继续进行金融资产投资,每年投资规模为80亿到100亿元人民币。 6park.com


独立信用状况为"强":鉴于中国三峡集团的资本支出高企,惠誉预计,未来四年内,该公司的自由现金流量将持续为负值。惠誉预测,2019年该公司的FFO调整后净杠杆率将升至5.0倍,并于2020年达到5.4倍的峰值(2018年为4.2倍)。但是信用指标只是暂时走弱,因其主要受到了未来几年乌东德和白鹤滩项目资本支出的影响。随着乌东德和白鹤滩电站投入运营的产能增加,杠杆率可能会从2021年开始下降。惠誉认为这两个项目均为优质水电资产,单位资本支出相对较低,发电能力较强。中国三峡集团强劲的业务状况——体现为其全球性业务规模庞大、资产优质、发电量稳定、电价风险低及流动性状况强劲——能够有效支撑其'bbb'的独立信用状况。 6park.com


长江电力与母公司的关联紧密:惠誉将长江电力的评级与其母公司的评级等同。长江电力持有中国三峡集团最重要的运营资产——长江四大水电站,总装机容量达45.5吉瓦。中国三峡集团的大部分收益和现金流(2018年EBITDA的69%)来自长江电力,截至2018年末,长江电力从中国三峡集团获得814亿元人民币的股东贷款。长江电力支付的股息是中国三峡集团为其国内外水电站建设和并购活动提供资金的重要现金流来源。稳健的盈利能力、资产负债表和现金流实力,以及合意的运营风险状况,对长江电力'bbb'的独立信用状况形成了支撑。 6park.com


评级推导摘要
根据惠誉的《政府相关企业评级标准》,中国三峡集团的评级与中国主权评级等同。惠誉评定中国三峡集团的法律地位及政府持股和控制程度为"很强",此项指标的评估结果与国家电网有限公司(国家电网;A+/稳定)相同,而中国华电集团有限公司(华电,A/稳定)和国家电力投资集团有限公司(国家电投,A/稳定)的此项指标评估结果为"强"。国资委将中国三峡集团和国家电网都列为对国家具有高度战略意义的"商业二类"国有企业,而将华电和国家电投列为更具商业驱动性的"商业一类"企业。 6park.com


惠誉评定中国三峡集团的政府以往支持力度为"很强"是基于:与此项评估结果为"强"的华电和国家电投相比,中国三峡集团获得的财务支持更加稳定、数额也更大。惠誉评定中国三峡集团违约带来的社会政治影响为"强",主要反映出该公司违约构成的政治和声誉风险较高。惠誉评定中国三峡集团违约带来的融资影响为"很强",与华电和国家电投的评估结果一致,因为中国三峡集团和上述两家公司同为中国五大独立发电企业,在境内外债券市场上融资数额庞大,且被视为政府融资平台。 6park.com


根据惠誉的《母子公司评级关联性标准》,长江电力的评级与其母公司中国三峡集团的评级等同。长江电力是中国三峡集团的旗舰子公司,持有集团最重要的水电资产,并贡献了母公司大部分的营收和现金流。 6park.com


关键评级假设
本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括:
- 2019年至2021年间主要水电站的利用小时数每年减少0.5%;
- 2019年至2021年间主要水电站的电价每年下调0.5%;
- 2020年至2022年或2023年间乌东德、白鹤滩水电站将提升产能;
- 乌东德、白鹤滩电站的平均电价将比向家坝、溪洛渡电站的平均电价低6%;
- 未来三到四年每年资本支出为600亿元人民币 6park.com


评级敏感性因素
可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动的未来发展因素包括:
中国三峡集团:
- 惠誉对中国主权采取正面评级行动,且政府向中国三峡集团提供支持的可能性不变
长江电力:
- 惠誉上调中国三峡集团的评级,且长江电力与中国三峡集团之间的关联性不变 6park.com


可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动的未来发展因素包括:
中国三峡集团:
- 惠誉对中国主权采取负面评级行动,或政府向中国三峡集团提供支持的可能性下降
长江电力:
-惠誉下调中国三峡集团的评级,或中国三峡集团与长江电力之间的关联性减弱 6park.com


流动性
流动性充足:截至2019年上半年末,中国三峡集团持有现金471亿元人民币(其中受限制的现金占比很小),足以覆盖其共计456亿元人民币的短期债务。截至2019年上半年末,该公司持有可售金融资产591亿元人民币,为其提供了更多的流动性,因这些金融资产大多为从大型国有银行购买的短期理财产品或市值较大的高流动性股票。中国三峡集团还持有尚未使用的银行授信额度9077亿元人民币(截至2019年第一季度)。得益于其重点国有企业的地位,中国三峡集团与国家开发银行(A+/稳定)和中国银行股份有限公司(A/稳定)等中国顶级银行保持着稳固的关系。此外,中国三峡集团拥有畅通的境内外债券市场融资渠道。 6park.com


完整评级行动列表
中国长江三峡集团有限公司
- 确认长期外币发行人违约评级为'A+';展望稳定;
- 确认长期本币发行人违约评级为'A+';展望稳定;
- 确认高级无抵押评级为'A+'; 6park.com


中国长江电力股份有限公司
- 确认长期外币发行人违约评级为'A+';展望稳定;
- 确认长期本币发行人违约评级为'A+';展望稳定;
- 确认短期外币发行人违约评级为'F1+';
- 确认短期本币发行人违约评级为'F1+'
- 确认高级无抵押评级为'A+' 6park.com


Three Gorges Finance I (Cayman Islands) Limited
- 确认票息率3.7%、2025年到期的7亿美元高级无抵押票据的评级为'A+';
- 确认票息率2.3%、2021年到期的5亿美元高级无抵押票据的评级为'A+';
- 确认票息率3.15%、2026年到期的10亿美元高级无抵押票据的评级为'A+'; 6park.com


Three Gorges Finance II (Cayman Islands) Limited
- 确认票息率1.7%、2022年到期的7亿欧元高级无抵押票据的评级为'A+';
- 确认票息率1.3%、2024年到期的6.5亿欧元高级无抵押票据的评级为'A+'; 6park.com


Three Gorges Finance I (Cayman Islands) Limited和Three Gorges Finance II (Cayman Islands) Limited发行的票据均由中国三峡集团提供担保。 6park.com


联系人: 6park.com


首席分析师
张之骅
联席董事
+852 2263 9617
惠誉国际评级有限公司
香港中环德辅道中68号万宜大厦19楼 6park.com


第二分析师
郁威
董事
+86 21 6898 7983 6park.com


评级委员会主席
王颖
董事总经理
+86 21 6898 7980 6park.com


财务报表调整摘要:
惠誉对中国三峡集团截至2018年末的可用现金进行了调整,向该公司381亿元人民币的可售资产授予100%的现金收益——这些资产主要是购自中国大型国有银行和政策性银行、期限短且收益固定的理财产品、货币基金及政府债券。此外,基于长江电力和中国三峡集团的市值和流动性状况,惠誉向其持有的上市公司股票授予0%-40%的现金收益。 6park.com


环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素
除非本节内容另有披露,ESG信用相关度评分最高为3分,表示ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。 6park.com


如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息,请访问www.fitchratings.com/esg。 6park.com


Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com 6park.com


详情参见www.fitchratings.com 6park.com


注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。
Applicable Criteria
Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 19 Feb 2019)
Corporates Notching and Recovery Ratings Criteria (pub. 23 Mar 2018)
Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria (pub. 18 Jan 2019)
Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria (pub. 25 Oct 2018)
Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage - Effective from 16 July 2018 to 27 September 2019 (pub. 16 Jul 2018)
Short-Term Ratings Criteria (pub. 02 May 2019) 6park.com


Additional Disclosures
Solicitation Status
Endorsement Policy 6park.com

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The information in this report is provided "as is" without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers.
For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001
Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the "NRSRO"). While certain of the NRSRO's credit rating subsidiaries are listed on Item 3 of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the "non-NRSROs") and therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO.

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SOLICITATION STATUS

The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below. 6park.com


ENDORSEMENT POLICY

Fitch's approach to ratings endorsement so that ratings produced outside the EU may be used by regulated entities within the EU for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU Regulation with respect to credit rating agencies, can be found on the EU Regulatory Disclosures page. The endorsement status of all International ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for all structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.

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