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COMMENT
The West must unite to stop China’s stranglehold on critical minerals
Only through like-minded partnerships can we protect ourselves from Chinese coercion 6park.com
DOMINIC RAAB
25 October 2023 • 2:00pm
Dominic Raab
In the aftermath of Hamas’s horrific attacks on Israel, as nations nervously gauge Israel’s response, one group remains calm: energy analysts predict only a limited impact on oil prices. 6park.com
The contrast with two, barely reported but economically far-reaching, developments is stark. China announced fresh export restrictions on graphite, while the US and EU quietly failed to agree a deal to align their critical minerals supply – risking the slow strangulation of the supply chains Western economies need to thrive. 6park.com
Critical minerals are essential for manufacturing everything from steel to electronics, and vital to the green transition – including copper for solar panels and graphite for electric vehicle batteries. China, in a demonstration of geopolitical ju-jitsu, is weaponising the free market against Western economies – with only the limpest response to date. 6park.com
The comparison with oil dependency is striking. Saudi Arabia accounts for around 12pc of global supply, and Russia about the same. When it comes to critical minerals, China is the largest producer of gallium (98pc), magnesium (90pc) and tungsten (85pc). 6park.com
Where it doesn’t dominate resources itself, China often controls other parts of the supply chain. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for around 70pc of the global supply of cobalt – needed for everything from magnets to car airbags – but China owns 15 out of the 17 mines, as part of its Belt and Road project. Processing and refinement of critical minerals is even more concentrated, with China performing 60-90pc of it. 6park.com
These supply chains are the lifeblood of the global free market. Strained by Covid and disrupted by war in Ukraine, there is no escaping our growing reliance on critical minerals, as economies strive to wean themselves off fossil fuels and onto cleaner sources of energy. 6park.com
Edison Group, an investment research consultancy, estimates annual increases in demand of 20pc for critical minerals for the foreseeable future, leading to a fourfold increase in the size of the industry within six years. 6park.com
Add in China’s fractious relations with the US, and other Western nations, and the geopolitical fault lines are as taut as the supply chains. 6park.com
China can be ruthless in responding to perceived slights. When Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010, China slapped restrictions on the export of salmon from Norway, hitting the Norwegians for millions in lost trade. When South Korea agreed to host a US missile system in 2016, economic counter-measures reached billions of dollars. 6park.com
Little surprise, then, that Beijing will use export bans and other trade levers to choke the supply of critical minerals to Western economies, in pursuit of its interests and to fragment Western opposition or criticism. 6park.com
To date the response has been weak and splintered. The US policy of incentivising domestic production through tax breaks and subsidies may provide marginal extra protection, but it risks creating divisions among partners who are excluded. The European Union’s target, of ensuring that 40pc of clean energy technology is made in the bloc by 2030, lacks a credible delivery roadmap. 6park.com
As US policymakers mull collective, international, export restrictions on China, they can expect a mixed response, depending on the ability of the nation in question to withstand Beijing’s likely retaliation. So, what is the answer? 6park.com
As Britain shifted from reliance on coal mined in Newcastle to Persian oil, in 1913, Winston Churchill remarked that “in variety, and in variety alone” would the economy find security of supply. 6park.com
Today, as we seek diversity of supply for critical minerals, the answer isn’t to abandon the free market, but to bolster it. Yes, that will include some de-risking from China, but more important will be the expansion of reliable international supply chains. A credible strategy requires three things. 6park.com
First, accurate and reliable data to forecast shortages. The International Energy Agency was created in 1974 to help perform this function for oil. It could be expanded to take on a similar role for critical minerals – with governments and regulators supplying data. 6park.com
Second, if they go it alone, neither individual states nor regional blocs can do more than apply a sticking plaster. We need a wider partnership of like-minded countries, committed to the same ends and willing to demonstrate solidarity when threatened by China or others. 6park.com
The 14 member Minerals Security Partnership, led by the US, is a good starting point. But it needs broader membership (beyond longstanding transatlantic and Pacific allies), clearer terms, and sharper teeth if it is to shore up supply. 6park.com
A new partnership of high-trust governments and businesses should aim to safeguard supply at market rates, cover each link in the relevant supply chain, span critical minerals most vulnerable to economic coercion, and expand in scope over time. 6park.com
That will require pragmatism from the US, particularly with partners that enjoy more friendly relations with China, or who tread gingerly to avoid economic punishment from Beijing. 6park.com
A partnership that could draw in the likes of Indonesia, Brazil, Chile, Peru and South Africa will have greater diversity of supply and more credibility among other developing countries. The prize is worth it. 6park.com
A network of collective economic resilience would not just protect its members from the piques of Chinese reprisals. It could reverse the strategic balance. On one estimate, the high dependence goods produced by states subject to Chinese coercion are collectively worth over £25bn to China – something Beijing could not ignore. 6park.com
The third element of the strategy is to provide the regulatory and fiscal climate to promote more commercial investment. To date, neither conventional oil and gas companies nor traditional mining firms have demonstrated the ambition to match demand. Capital spending has increased at a sluggish pace. Edison reports a vacuum for many “in demand” minerals. If partner governments want sustainable supply, they need to give producers clearer guidance and incentives. 6park.com
For all the overblown talk of reshoring manufacturing capability, there is no substitute for a concerted plan – led by Western governments, backed by business – to reinforce a diverse international market in critical minerals. 6park.com
Dominic Raab MP is a former foreign secretary and deputyprime minister 6park.com
Related Topics
China, Clean energy, Manufacturing industry, Net Zero
The Telegraph values your comments but kindly requests all posts are on topic, constructive and respectful. Please review our commenting policy. 6park.com
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