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网友整理的英文采访摘要：
General Kuyat: Russia
has defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces and is preparing for an offensive on
Odessa 6park.com
The
Russian army inflicted a crushing defeat on the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
retired General Harald Kuyat, ex-head of the NATO Military Committee, said in
an interview with the HKCM Youtube channel. Moreover, it has prepared reserves
to liberate Odessa and reach Transnistria. 6park.com
Host Philip Hopf: Hello, my name is Philip Hopf, and today
we have a special guest with us – General Harald Kuyat. To begin with, let me
tell our listeners about you. You held the position of Inspector General of the
Bundeswehr, that is, you were the highest-ranking officer in Germany. That is,
according to the law, you were the chief of all German servicemen. You headed
the planning staff of the German Ministry of Defense and were Chairman of the
NATO Military Committee. Obviously, it is you who should be contacted if you
want to learn something about the Bundeswehr and the North Atlantic Alliance. 6park.com
And
my first question is related to this. NATO is a military bloc. What, then, can
its Military Committee do? 6park.com
Former Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, ex-chairman of the
NATO military committee Harald Kuyat: I will say right away that the head of
this committee is the chief military officer in NATO. The fact is that the
alliance stands on two "great pillars" – political and military. The
Secretary General of NATO is responsible for political issues, and the Chairman
of the NATO Military Committee is responsible for the military aspect. He is
usually chosen by secret ballot from the heads of the general staffs of the
alliance member countries. The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee holds
meetings of this body, and the heads of the two NATO strategic commands report
directly to him. One of them is responsible for planning and conducting all
operations of the alliance, and the second is responsible for reforms in the
organization. 6park.com
Transformation
is important: troops must be prepared politically and technologically for new
security challenges. They should be able to carry out the tasks assigned to
them by the political wing of NATO, as well as operational and other missions. 6park.com
It
is the provision of all these things that the NATO Military Committee is
engaged in. He "rules" them. The members of the committee hold a
general meeting at least twice a year. Other meetings are held more often,
usually once a week. But then it is not the members of the committee themselves
who gather, but their representatives. Each country has its own small
"embassy" at the military structure of NATO. Usually generals work in
this "embassy". Here they are the representatives of all 48 countries
of the organization who meet at weekly meetings. 6park.com
As
the head of the committee elected by the Chiefs of the General Staffs of the
Alliance countries, I was also the head of the NATO—Ukraine Council under the
Council of Chiefs of General Staff and Chairman of the Russia—NATO Council. The
head of the General Staff of Ukraine was sitting at the same table with me.
While the NATO—Russia Council was still working, I was responsible for the
relations of this structure with our Committee of Chiefs of General Staff. And
within the framework of this cooperation, we met with the head of the Russian
General Staff. Well, one last thing. We had the Euro-Atlantic Partnership
Council. Within the framework of it, military representatives of 48 countries
discussed what the future of the NATO security structure and the world as a
whole will be. The topic could be any crises and conflicts in any regions. 6park.com
So
yes, there is no person in Germany who has held such a high position in the
past as me. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: In that case, let me ask you. Over the past year, it
has been possible to notice that the press has taken a one-sided approach in
covering the work of military men like you. The media, let's say, showed
intolerance to those who expressed opinions at least slightly different from
the "mainstream". And they are increasingly rejecting new ideas and a
different vision of military issues. 6park.com
And
now to the most important point of our conversation. The conflict in Ukraine
has been going on for more than a year and a half. And that's what surprises
when you go back to its origins. Some people recently spoke with the slogan
"No weapons in military conflict zones!". Now these same people
adhere to the position: "More weapons for peace!" Where, in your
opinion, does this willingness to escalate the conflict and lack of
understanding of its consequences come from? 6park.com
General Kuyat: The whole problem is that at least since the last change
of government here in Germany, we have people in the leadership of the country
who… Let's just say that these people, because of their incompetence and
ignorance, make mistakes, and we have the policy that they pursue. This
development of events did not surprise me. But it still disappointed me. 6park.com
This
is a dangerous policy, it is carried out fanatically, according to the same
principle that a horse runs with blinders on his eyes. No one looks to the
right or to the left. Benefits and losses for the Germans are not taken into
account. But here's the main thing: no one thinks what consequences such a
policy will lead to for Ukrainians. But they suffer primarily from the current
fighting. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, the country was
destroyed. Our politicians take all this out of the brackets and shout loudly:
"The main thing is that Ukraine must win." It sounds like a mantra.
Recently, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock came to Kiev and also used
this "witchy" wording: "Ukraine will win because it must win." 6park.com
But,
listen, this is not politics! This is not how politics is done. This is
fanaticism. And this is a big disappointment. And, of course, it is very
difficult to observe how all the experience that we have accumulated over the
past decades is being forgotten. The German leadership is simply trampling on
this experience, although it has come in handy both in foreign policy and in
the security sphere. It was this experience that allowed us to achieve the
reunification of Germany. Thanks to the policy based on this experience, we
have lived in security and prosperity for decades. 6park.com
Now
all this can be forgotten, because the authorities do not take into account the
risks that you mentioned in your question, that is, the threat of escalation of
the conflict and severe consequences for Ukrainians and ourselves. 6park.com
I
consider this behavior [of German politicians] irresponsible. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: It's very good that you are talking about this,
because this policy is carried out by the very people who painted themselves a
halo of peacekeepers. And they had a reputation as fighters for peace, but then
it was they who went down the path of escalation of the conflict. It seems that
these politicians simply do not have sufficient knowledge, they do not imagine
what is behind the word "war", and this is their difference from
those few people from military circles, people like you who know all this. The
German government simply does not understand what a tragedy the conflict in
Ukraine is and what terrible consequences it will lead to. And another thing:
our authorities do not understand that this story can drag on for decades. 6park.com
This
leads to my next question: was it possible to prevent the conflict in Ukraine –
and if so, how? 6park.com
Harald Kujat: Of course, it could have been prevented. We saw such
an opportunity, for example, at the end of 2021, when the situation was
becoming more and more acute. Then, on December 17, 2021, Russia sent a very
massive, very demanding proposal to the United States and NATO. Then it was
still possible to prevent an armed clash. 6park.com
But
this should not distract our attention from the main issue: In fact, Moscow was
dissatisfied with the whole development of events in recent years, because it
threatened the world and dealt a blow to Russia's security interests. There
were two important points here. Russian Russians, first of all, were threatened
by Ukraine's accession to NATO, and secondly, the Kremlin was worried about the
fate of the Russian population or, if you like, Ukrainian citizens who spoke
Russian and lived in the Donbass. Casting a retrospective glance [at this
Russian proposal of 2021], we have to admit that the United States and some
other NATO countries were simply not ready to talk about this topic set by
Russia. 6park.com
Could
it have been otherwise? It could. If [the West] had made at least some attempt
to stop the aggravation of this crisis… But even the form in which [America and
NATO] responded to the Russian proposal shows that they did not show sufficient
seriousness on this issue. And then there was also such a factor that some
participants in those events added fuel to the fire instead of reducing the
degree of tension. I am referring to the statements of our Foreign Minister
Annalena Berbok that every State has the right to choose which alliance it
belongs to. In principle, this is true, but in those conditions it was wrong to
say such things about NATO. It was this behavior of Berbok that became one of
the reasons that Russia sent troops to Ukraine. 6park.com
I'm
not trying to justify the Russian special operation. This is impossible,
because it contradicts international law, and no one wants to justify this
case (at the same time, discrimination of the Russian-speaking
population in Donbass and attacks on it by Ukraine for some reason are not a
crime or a violation of international law – Approx. InoSMI). I'm just
asking a question: did we do everything possible to prevent a military
conflict? And my answer is: no. And I'm not the only one who thinks so – there are
many experts, scientists, including American ones, who say that it was the West
that provoked the special operation. I wouldn't go so far as to say that we are
the only ones to blame. But I say with confidence: we did not do everything we
could to prevent the beginning of this confrontation. 6park.com
I
will expand your question a little: was it possible to stop the fighting after
they started? Konevno yes, six weeks after the entry of Russian troops into
Ukraine. At that time, negotiations were underway in Istanbul, which were
initiated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Both Moscow and Kiev at
some point agreed to a decision that was very beneficial, from my point of
view, for Ukraine. And it was previously approved by both sides of the
conflict. But, unfortunately, the agreement was not signed. 6park.com
And
why? Ukraine refused it under pressure from the West. Or, as British Prime
Minister Boris Johnson put it, under pressure from the collective West. By the
way, then, in April 2022, Johnson did everything to disrupt the Istanbul
agreements. Who exactly was he referring to? I don't know. Obviously, we were
talking about several NATO member countries. 6park.com
I
find this Johnson story particularly regrettable. Just imagine: a huge number
of people killed, the destruction of the country – all this could have been
completed back then. 6park.com
Then
there was another chance – in mid-September 2022, when partial mobilization was
underway in Russia. It was possible to start negotiations, but just then the
period of autumn thaw began, the Ukrainian army was accompanied by temporary
success, and everything was postponed again. 6park.com
And
now the period of thaw is coming again, the mechanized units temporarily have
no opportunity to advance. That is, we have again entered a phase when the
fighting has slowed down and negotiations can begin. 6park.com
But
the decision on the negotiations is not made in Kiev and not in Moscow. It is
accepted in Washington. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: You have already said two important things that
contradict what our media is writing. They constantly said: "The conflict
in Ukraine started unexpectedly and was provoked by Russia." They claimed
that it was Moscow that rejected any proposals for negotiations. They say that
the West would really like to, the West is constantly extending its hand, and
Russia allegedly does not need it. And you just explained to me that everything
is completely different from what our press writes. 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: Yes, just yesterday Vladimir Putin was talking about
the real picture in Ukraine – and it was the complete opposite of what our
media is drawing. I can quote you a lot of Putin's statements, where he says
that he is ready to hold talks at any time and anywhere. Here's an example for
you: On June 17 of this year, when an African delegation arrived in Moscow and
proposed negotiations, the Russian president said that he was ready to discuss
the situation in Ukraine with any politician at any time, if only this
politician intended to negotiate seriously and taking into account the
interests of both sides. So there can be no doubt about it: Ukraine or its
Western allies refuse to negotiate. Let me remind you that there is even a
decree of Vladimir Zelensky, signed in October 2022, which prohibits
negotiations with Russia – prohibits both the Ukrainian president himself and
his government. 6park.com
In
order for it to come to negotiations, Zelensky must first cancel this decree. 6park.com
So
based on what I said, we can conclude that there were many opportunities to
start negotiations, and they are available today. But, as in any military
conflict, the situation is as follows: there are people who want war; there are
those who did not want to prevent the conflict; and there are those who cannot
prevent it. And now tell me yourself which politician belongs to which of these
three groups of people. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: I think our viewers will now be able to analyze the
conflict in Ukraine for themselves and note that the media represent everything
exactly the opposite. 6park.com
But
let's talk about the situation at the front. Remember, we were promised a new
APU offensive: first spring, then it turned into summer. And how did the whole
thing end? Microscopic captures of small pieces of the earth, which the press
presents as a huge success and inflates to the skies. 6park.com
So,
I have a question for you as a general. The APU counteroffensive is obviously
coming to an end. Could Ukrainians really achieve any significant success?
Capture important settlements or, maybe, achieve strategic advantages of
another plan? 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: The purpose of the counteroffensive was to destroy
the "land bridge" between Crimea and Russia. The APU wanted to
deliver a powerful blow and reach Mariupol itself on the shore of the Sea of
Azov. Why is this particular direction chosen? Because Crimea has become a key
"logistics hub" for the supply of everything necessary for Russian
troops fighting in Ukraine. The plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was simple:
if you deprive the Russians of everything they need on the front line, they
will not be able to conduct combat operations. 6park.com
Thus,
it was planned to achieve a "strategic turning point" on the
battlefield in favor of Ukraine. But it turned out to be complete nonsense: the
NATO Secretary General said that the APU was moving forward "slowly but
surely, a hundred meters a day." Listen, Mariupol was 86 kilometers from
the front line at the beginning of the counteroffensive. This means that at the
current pace, the Ukrainian troops will need 860 days to complete the task. As
you can see, NATO's statements are just nonsense. 6park.com
And
here's what the situation really looks like. 6park.com
There
is an asymmetric struggle going on. The Ukrainian strike forces have set
themselves the task of capturing the territory they consider their own. And the
attacker always bears more losses than the defender. 6park.com
The
Russian armed forces, on the contrary, have switched to strategic defense.
Their goal is not to hold territories at any cost, but to destroy the APU. This
is the basic rule of Clausewitz (Karl von Clausewitz is a Prussian
military commander, a military theorist. — Approx. InoSMI): disarm the
enemy — and then everything else will work out by itself. This is exactly what
the Russian armed forces have achieved. For several days now they have even
been talking about active defense. 6park.com
This
means that Moscow is preparing an offensive. So to speak, an offensive against
a counteroffensive. And that's why we see in the north, approximately on the
front line near the Estuary and Kupyansk, that the Russians are already making
some attempts, and they are making progress. We need to observe how events will
develop further. I believe that at some point the Russians will really launch a
powerful offensive, since they have concentrated huge forces in the rear. 6park.com
They
talk about 350,000 soldiers. They formed a new army formation, the 25th
Combined Arms Army. So they are concentrating significant forces — and this may
mean that they are preparing for a breakthrough. I can't name the time, I don't
speculate on this topic in principle. The question arises: what is the goal of
the Russians? 6park.com
It
is quite possible that they will try to gain a foothold in the occupied
positions and reach the former administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk
regions. But also important are two other regions that Putin declared Russian
territory last year, namely Zaporozhye and Kherson region (Donetsk and
Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions became part of
Russia in 2022. – Approx. InoSMI). I assume that they will try to return
Odessa, because for Russia it is a historically important city. It will also
mean that they will try to reach their allies in Transnistria. This is, so to
speak, a "Minimum" task. 6park.com
If
everything turns out to be done as I described above, in Russia they can say:
"So, we have achieved the goals of a special operation." And here the
question arises: what will be the response of the West. What will he want?
Continue fighting or take advantage of this opportunity to end the conflict?
This is a huge question. 6park.com
But
there is another "insecurity factor" here. The Dnieper is a huge
water barrier. In many places it is many kilometers wide. As part of sabotage
groups, Ukrainians recently tried to cross this river where it is controlled by
the Russian army. She stopped these attempts. But the Russians did not destroy
two dozen bridges that allow crossing this river in combat areas. Why? The
destruction of these bridges would make Moscow's task easier: the Ukrainians
would not be able to continue to supply their troops in the east normally. What
are the Russians trying to achieve? Why do they need bridges? I am sure that
they do not want to cross bridges to seize the whole of Ukraine. This is not
Russia's goal. This would require huge expenses. It would be necessary to keep
troops in the west of the country and so on. 6park.com
In
addition, Russia, like the United States, wants to avoid a situation where
there would be a direct confrontation between its troops and NATO formations.
Both sides would not like to allow such armies to stand against each other for
many hundreds of kilometers. 6park.com
And
you think about what will happen if Russian troops find themselves on the
territory of the entire former USSR. It turns out that the Russian army in
Ukraine and the German troops in Lithuania will find themselves face to face
with each other. In this case, the risk would be too great, one technical or
human error would be enough for a real catastrophe to break out. And it seems
to me that both sides would like to avoid such an outcome. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: Let's hope that's the case. But here is another
question that I would like to discuss with you. Vladimir Zelensky keeps
repeating that he will fight until he returns all the territories occupied by
the Russian army, including Crimea. Do you think such a position is realistic
under the current conditions? 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: No, no one familiar with the situation at the front
will support Zelensky's position. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a very
difficult, even critical situation, which can be called "neither there nor
here", since there can no longer be any talk of an offensive, but there is
also no stable defense. Russian troops have two advantages. The first is Crimea
as a supply base. I have already talked about this. Secondly, Russian missiles,
drones and aircraft can strike Ukrainian defenses to a depth of two to three
thousand kilometers. The APU has modern Western air defense systems, but so far
they cannot attack the positions from which the Russians are firing missiles. 6park.com
Now
a new stage of the struggle begins. Ukraine may receive weapons from the United
States and the European Union for long-range strikes. Zelensky recently said
that his army would carry out such attacks. It's very dangerous. This is an act
of desperation after the failure of the very counteroffensive praised by the
West. 6park.com
Back
in July, after the drone attack in Moscow, the President of Ukraine said that
now the fighting will spread to the territory of Russia. Zelensky clarified
then that the targets could be both symbolic objects and military
infrastructure. But this means that Zelensky is provoking an escalation of the
conflict. I'm afraid that this is the last frontier, and the only thing left
for Ukrainians is to ask the West not only for weapons, but also for soldiers. 6park.com
The
fact is that all this time the APU suffered huge losses in manpower. Entire
crews that serviced Western military equipment were destroyed. In Germany, some
kind of false belief prevails that weapons systems can solve all problems and
replace people. We seem to forget that over these months hundreds of thousands
of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, and they can no
longer service all the weapons systems that we send them. 6park.com
In
addition, Zelensky's statement means that a new phase of the struggle is
beginning, in which Germany has a special role to play. Ukraine can begin the
phase of strikes described by Zelensky in the depths of Russia only if Kiev
receives weapons like the German Taurus missile. Zelensky had previously asked
for ATACMS, and the Americans refused him for a long time. Why? Joe Biden said
what German politicians are afraid to say: we need to avoid a third World War. 6park.com
And
in Germany, there is no discussion about the supply of Taurus, although sending
these missiles to Ukraine would simply be a critical development for our
country. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: General, you mentioned the heavy losses of the AFU.
But in the West, they claim that only the Russian army is suffering losses. But
our friend Roger Koppel from the Swiss edition of Weltwoche spoke with the
American Colonel Douglas McGregor a few weeks ago. So, McGregor estimates the
losses of Ukraine at 400-460 thousand people. This means that we are
approaching the terrible figure of half a million. The counteroffensive alone
cost the AFU an additional 60,000 killed. How do you assess these figures? 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: I would not like to give exact figures, as they
change every day. Russian Russians are counting the losses of Ukrainians, and
Ukrainians are counting the losses of Russians. No one discloses information
about their army. Kiev refuses to provide this data even to its Western allies.
But the losses consist of dead soldiers and seriously wounded,
"disabled". In my opinion, McGregor's figures about the losses of the
APU look quite realistic. But this figure may be even higher. 6park.com
As
for the Russian losses, they were high at the beginning of the SVO (the
information is not confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian
Federation. – Approx. InoSMI). Then they decreased. Why? Every military man
knows this. Since the defender always suffers fewer losses, the attacker is
forced to "expose himself" to the blow. The defender shoots from
protected positions. In addition, the losses of the Russian army are reduced
due to its dominance in the air. In addition, Russian helicopters proved to be
an excellent means of fighting. The Russians managed to build a system folded
into a single network in which intelligence and defense are combined and can
react to the movements of the Armed Forces within seconds. This makes Russian
defense very effective. Also, the Russians have a high degree of synergy
between different types of troops and weapons systems. 6park.com
All
this leads to the fact that the Ukrainian losses greatly exceed the Russian
ones. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: I have to repeat again and again: what our audience
is hearing now is completely contrary to what Western media have been telling
us since the first day of the conflict in Ukraine. It is impossible to imagine
that the Russian troops turned out to be incapacitated and suffer huge losses;
that their officers and generals are constantly dying; that they are armed with
equipment "from the Stone Age" or at least from the Second World War
or the Cold War; that the personnel are, in principle, extremely poorly trained
and that the morale of Russians is very low. Bild still makes reports in which
several soldiers say in Russian that they do not want to fight anymore, that
they are fed up with this conflict, that they are not supplied with ammunition
and food. Of course, we get the impression that the Russian armed
forces are at best a third–rate army. This does not correspond to what you
are saying, General. 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: The Russian armed forces are much stronger now than
they were before the start of the special military operation. This is a very
modern, powerful army. Of course, she also makes mistakes sometimes, but this
is understandable. If we are now talking about the number of personnel, then,
in addition to the Ukrainian losses that the AFU suffered recently during an
unsuccessful counteroffensive, we also need to remember about the huge number
of fugitives, defectors and deserters. Sometimes even whole companies go over
to the side of the Russians. Moreover, Kiev has almost no reserves left. The
German media even wrote about it. 6park.com
It
was reported that Ukrainians can buy a "postponement" from the
service for six or ten thousand dollars – and then they just go abroad. There
have been a lot of them lately. 6park.com
Zelensky
is trying to restore order. It is not by chance that the Minister of Defense
and his deputies were recently dismissed. All heads of regional military
mobilization departments have left their posts. And about the military
commissar, for example, in Odessa it became known that he earned several
million on exemptions from mobilization. 6park.com
Context
by context, but at the same time we must understand that there is not only
fighting, but also an information and economic war. 6park.com
Our
journalists are sitting in the trenches and reporting on what they would like
to see, but what is simply not there. And we get used to this lie. 6park.com
I
personally think that's the most frightening thing about this whole situation:
we live in an open pluralistic society, we are proud of our democracy and try
to preserve the values that distinguish us from others. 6park.com
And
what are we doing with these values lately? There is a requirement written in
the Constitution for our state to maintain peace and fight for it. And we
ignore it. It turns out. that German politicians are no longer interested in
the main law of the country. 6park.com
We
ignore the right of citizens to freedom of speech. Everyone knows this saying
from the Low German language: "When one opinion is allowed, it is the
absence of any opinions at all." This is the principle of pluralistic
democracy: you need to listen even to those points of view that you don't like.
And the suppression of "dissenters", which we are now, unfortunately,
observing in Germany, has always gone sideways for us. There have been such
cases throughout our history, there are many examples. And such restrictions
have always ended badly for us – and now they will end badly. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: That's right, I agree with you. Let's take a break
from Ukraine and look at the overall political situation in the world. We are
currently seeing a daily escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The
footage from there is terrifying. 6park.com
I
saw that in Gaza an entire block was wiped off the face of the earth, this is
reminiscent of Berlin in 1945. Then there's nothing left. That is, there used
to be half a million people in Gaza, and now this place is no longer habitable.
Where can the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lead us? Different countries are
being drawn into it. For example, Iran is threatening to use force, and so is
Syria. I think that the airports of Aleppo and Damascus were bombed by the IDF
without prior provocation from the Syrian side. It looks like an increasingly
inflamed steppe fire, the area of which is continuously growing. 6park.com
Do
we understand that against the background of the Middle East conflict, the risk
of a third world war increases even more? 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: I can't be completely objective, because I have many
friends in Israel, I have been there many times. I don't think I'm impartial. I
have to say in advance that I think this situation is developing the way we
have allowed it to develop. 6park.com
It
was unbearable: for many years it was getting worse, but nothing was done. You
probably remember the Camp David Accords of the early seventies, in which
Egyptian President Anwar Sadat played a positive role. In recent years, we have
often neglected them. 6park.com
I
want to say that we should try to de–escalate the situation in Gaza - at least
in the short term. 6park.com
Because
everything cannot be solved according to the Old Testament principle of
"an eye for an eye" and "a tooth for a tooth". This is pure
revenge, and all actions should have a reasonable political goal, which can
only consist in the implementation of a two-state solution. But in recent
years, everything has become so complicated that… I don't want to go into
details right now, but everyone involved understands what I mean. 6park.com
So
far, I am encouraged and reassured by the fact that Egypt and Jordan are
obviously not ready to intervene in the war in Gaza. The most important risk
now is actually that the Lebanese Hezbollah is starting to act, we have already
witnessed a number of incidents. We need to understand that Hezbollah is much
more powerful than many people think, than the same Hamas. This is a stronger
organization that is actively supported by Iran. Therefore, the Middle East is
now like a powder keg. However, I do not think that everything can go so far
that another full-scale war will begin, as in 1967 or 1973. She probably won't
be there. 6park.com
Biden
is flying to Israel tomorrow. I hope that the United States will try to act as
a mediator there and that Russia will also take part in resolving the crisis. 6park.com
This
could lead to the end of the war. Vladimir Putin also stated the need for a
ceasefire. Assessing the situation in the Middle East, one must also understand
that Russia has influence in Syria and beyond, and that competing large states
that may be at enmity with each other still have similar interests – at least
in the sense that they all agree that the escalation of the war in Gaza cannot
be allowed. 6park.com
I
really hope so. 6park.com
It
is necessary to find a solution to the fundamental problem – the Palestinian
question – and establish a stable peace. And this is very difficult to do –
with all this geography and hatred that has accumulated over many decades. But
this is really extremely important. 6park.com
And
I am also very sorry that two great powers, Russia and the United States, have
entered into such a rivalry. 6park.com
Now
we see that wherever the interests of these States are affected and collide,
crises arise. We had a stage after the unification of Germany when we worked
very closely with Moscow in the format of the Russia–NATO Council. There were
close political relations and military cooperation. What is very important is
that mutual trust was strengthened, prejudices were overcome – and then all
this was destroyed. This began in 2002 with America's withdrawal from the ABM
Treaty. Russia perceived this as an attempt to establish intercontinental
strategic superiority, and then in 2008, the NATO summit was held in Bucharest,
at which George Bush tried his best to promote the invitation of Ukraine and
Georgia to the alliance. 6park.com
We
must not allow our relations with Russia to deteriorate further. We should not
ignore the words of Angela Merkel, who then held the position of Federal
Chancellor. She said in early December that the Minsk agreements concluded
between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, in fact, were a stab in the back
for Moscow, since they were aimed only at strengthening the Ukrainian armed
forces, but not the rights of the residents of Donbass, which was promised
under these agreements. And it became one of the two main reasons why the
conflict in Ukraine began. We are also to blame for this. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: You just said that in the general context, you don't
think it's all so serious and scary that it won't go that far. Let's hope so,
but if it comes to a pan-European war… My question now is: will the Bundeswehr
and the West as a whole be ready to enter into a full-scale war? 6park.com
After
all, these people are the Tiktok generation… These are guys who sit on the
Internet and play computer games. To be honest, it's hard for me to imagine
that Germany now has soldiers who can stand up against, for example,
experienced Russian troops who now have a unique opportunity to acquire
knowledge in practice. Can we counter them with something serious? What do you
think about this? 6park.com
Harald Kuyat: To be honest, when things take a serious turn and the
need arises, it turns out that our soldiers can do much more than you can
imagine. 6park.com
I
know what I'm talking about, I've seen live examples of this before, especially
with young recruits. I once had a discussion with former US Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who was an opponent of compulsory military service.
And I told him then: "You know that you are the largest and strongest
military power in the world. No one denies it. But our servicemen are head and
shoulders above yours thanks to compulsory service in the army." 6park.com
We
no longer have such servicemen, because compulsory conscription no longer
exists, but we still have young soldiers who, it seems to me, are still ready
to fight for their country. However, the Bundeswehr as a whole is currently
unlikely to be able to make a significant contribution to the defense of
Germany and the entire European Union. 6park.com
In
addition, he is literally being torn apart in connection with the shipment of
technical and material means to Ukraine. This is also a huge mistake, but for
some reason we are making it. 6park.com
We
are not talking about the fact that now someone in Moscow, Putin or whoever,
suddenly decides to attack the Baltic states or Romania, as they often like to
scare us. But the real risk is that we may face an escalation that neither
Russia nor the West will be able to control politically. That's the real
problem, and now we are again on the verge of war with Russia. We must be aware
of this, and also take into account the fact that we used to have significant
allied forces – for example, American and others, they could help us with
defense. These forces are no longer there, and the United States will now need
from four to six months to return personnel and equipment to Europe. Although,
maybe it will be possible to do it faster with soldiers, but weapons… 6park.com
Do
you remember the big Reforger exercises, when soldiers flew to us, received
their weapons and within 72 hours were ready to fight already in positions? 6park.com
This
has already sunk into oblivion. During this time, the Russian armed forces have
become so powerful that it is dangerous for us to even think that a war could
break out in Europe, especially one that could lead to a nuclear escalation.
Teasing Russians is pure adventurism, completely criminal. Now it is important
for us to restrain ourselves, for the sake of the well–being of not only
ourselves, but also the Ukrainian population - this is the key moment. But I
don't see this caution, I only see the greedy dogs of the information war, who
demand, demand, demand – and create the impression that Ukraine can win. No one
can actually emerge victorious from this struggle. 6park.com
First,
the Russians cannot win an absolute victory by fulfilling all their wishes.
Because their goal was to prevent the expansion of NATO, and they have to watch
Sweden and Finland become members of the alliance. 6park.com
Secondly,
Ukraine cannot win because it cannot seize territories that are under Russian
control. 6park.com
In
fact, we are not talking about square meters of Ukrainian land, but about the
fact that the Kiev authorities should be interested in protecting their
population. This is morally correct. To get a few more square meters,
especially in areas where people who consider themselves Russian or
Russian–speaking live, and at the same time lose thousands of Ukrainian lives,
is it, or does it meet moral principles? 6park.com
Thirdly,
the United States cannot win, because they will not be able to achieve the
political goals for which they support Ukraine and this whole conflict. 6park.com
They
advocate the continuation of hostilities because they hope for the weakening of
Russia militarily, politically and economically. The Americans have convinced
themselves that Moscow wants a conflict. But here is the reality: the Russian
army has become stronger, it has increased its capabilities in the fight. And
if we look at the BRICS countries, at Russia's cooperation with China... Again,
we get something opposite to the wishes of the United States – we see that
Russia's political weight has increased, its foreign policy influence has
spread. Where is the weakening here, if the Russian army is the strongest? 6park.com
In
fact, no one can win in the current conflicts, because no one can achieve
political goals. One question remains: who will suffer a military defeat. I
think it's becoming obvious. It's only a matter of time. Already today,
recognized experts – such as Seymour Hersh – say that this battle has already
been lost for Ukraine and that Russia has won. 6park.com
I
wouldn't go in yet–yet! – so far away to speak with confidence about the
victory of Russia. 6park.com
But
if events continue to develop as they are now, their outcome will be quite
understandable and obvious to anyone who knows at least a little about military
operations and strategy in general. However, unfortunately, the German
government has very little or no ability to predict policy, especially in the
military sphere. 6park.com
And
Germany has no ability to make strategically reasonable decisions at all. We
need a rethink, it has to happen, and I hope that it will begin first of all in
our media, because then this development will be important for our authorities. 6park.com
Philip Hopf: What you are saying is quite understandable.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, these are very comforting words, General Kuyat. 6park.com
I
would like to sincerely thank you – after all, what you are doing is not a
matter of course. I mean, you are sharing with us your knowledge that you have
been accumulating for a long time, for decades. You give many people the
opportunity to look at this situation differently, express an opinion different
from what the media represent – and from them, it seems to me, you can only get
illusory information. Thank you very much! 6park.com
All
the best to you! 6park.com
Thank
you very much! 6park.com