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从黎巴嫩到红海，美国与伊朗矛盾激化加大冲突风险From Lebanon to the Red Sea, a Broader Conflict With Iran Looms 6park.comDAVID E. SANGER, STEVEN ERLANGER《纽时》2024年1月8日 6park.com布什尔核电站的伊朗国旗。“我们又回到了原点，”一位法国外交官在谈到遏制伊朗核计划的努力时表示。 ATTA KENARE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
6park.comBERLIN — U.S. President Joe Biden and his top national security aides believed last summer that the chances of conflict with Iran and its proxies were well contained. 6park.com柏林——去年夏天，美国总统拜登和他的高级国家安全助手还以为与伊朗及其代理人爆发冲突的可能性已经得到了有效控制。 6park.comAfter secret talks, they had just concluded a deal that led to the release of five imprisoned Americans in return for $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds and some Iranian prisoners. The militants that Iran finances and arms — Hamas in the Palestinian territories, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — seemed relatively quiet. Iran even slowed enrichment of uranium at its underground nuclear sites, delaying its progress toward a weapon. 6park.com当时双方才刚经过秘密会谈达成协议，五名被关押的美国人获释，条件是解冻60亿美元的伊朗资金并释放一些伊朗囚犯。由伊朗资助并武装的激进组织似乎相对风平浪静，这些组织包括巴勒斯坦地区的哈马斯、黎巴嫩的真主党以及也门的胡塞武装。伊朗甚至暂缓了其地下核设施的铀浓缩活动，推迟了核武器制造进程。 6park.comHamas’ Oct. 7 invasion of Israel and Israel’s tough response have changed all that. Now, U.S. and Israeli officials, and a dozen countries working in concert to keep commerce flowing in the Red Sea, are confronting a newly aggressive Iran. After launching scores of attacks, from Lebanon to the Red Sea to Iraq, the proxy groups have come into direct conflict with U.S. forces twice in the past week, and the U.S. is openly threatening airstrikes if the violence does not abate. 6park.com哈马斯10月7日入侵以色列和以色列的强硬反击改变了这一切。现在，美国和以色列官员——再加上正努力维持红海贸易畅通的十几个国家——面对的是一个重新咄咄逼人起来的伊朗。从黎巴嫩到红海再到伊拉克，这些代理人组织发动了大量袭击，并在过去一周两次与美军直接冲突。美国公开威胁称，暴力若不能停息，美军将发动空袭。 6park.comMeanwhile, though little discussed by the Biden administration, the Iranian nuclear program has suddenly been put on steroids. International inspectors announced in late December that Iran initiated a threefold increase in its enrichment of near-bomb-grade uranium. By most rough estimates, Iran now has the fuel for at least three atomic weapons — and U.S. intelligence officials believe the additional enrichment needed to turn that fuel into bomb-grade material would take only a few weeks. 6park.com与此同时，虽然拜登政府很少讨论此事，但伊朗的核项目突然加快了进程。国际核查人员于12月底宣称，伊朗接近炸弹级的铀浓缩活动增加了三倍。根据大多数粗略的估计，伊朗现已掌握制造至少三件核武器的燃料，美国情报官员认为，将这些燃料转化为炸弹级材料所需的额外铀浓缩只需几周时间就能完成。 6park.com“We are back to square one,” Nicolas de Rivière, a top French diplomat deeply involved in negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, said last week. 6park.com“我们又回到了原点，”法国高级官尼古拉·德里维埃上周表示，他曾深入参与2015年伊朗核协议的谈判。 6park.comTaken together, the dynamic with Iran is more complex than at any point since the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 after the overthrow of the shah. U.S. and European intelligence officials say they do not believe the Iranians want a direct conflict with the United States or Israel, which they suspect would not end well. But they seem more than willing to push the envelope, enabling attacks, coordinating targeting of U.S. bases and ships carrying goods and fuel, and walking to the edge, again, of nuclear weapons capability. 6park.com总而言之，自1979年伊朗国王被推翻后的美使馆占领事件以来，伊朗问题走到了最复杂的节点。欧美情报官员表示，他们不认为伊朗愿与美国或以色列发生直接冲突，因为担心这种冲突不会有好结果。但伊朗似乎非常乐于挑战底线，发动袭击，与其他势力协同打击美军基地和运载货物燃料的船舶，并再次走到即将拥有核武器能力的边缘。 6park.com
2022年，乌克兰哈尔科夫市。一名警察正在检查乌克兰当局称为伊朗制造的自杀式无人机部件。 VYACHESLAV MADIYEVSKYY/REUTERS 6park.comAdded to the complexity of the problem is the dramatically widening scope of Iran’s aid to Russia. What began as a trickle of Shahed drones sold to Russia for use against Ukraine has turned into a flood. And now U.S. intelligence officials believe that, despite warnings, Iran is preparing to ship short-range missiles for use against Ukraine, just as Ukraine is running short on air defense and artillery shells. 6park.com伊朗对俄罗斯的援助规模急剧扩大则加剧了问题的复杂性。一开始伊朗只是对俄少量出售用于对抗乌克兰的“见证者”无人机，如今军售闸门已然大开。美国情报官员如今相信，伊朗正在不顾警告，准备运送短程导弹供俄罗斯打击乌克兰，而此时乌克兰的防空武器和炮弹正面临短缺。 6park.comIt is a reflection of a sharply altered power dynamic: Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran no longer finds itself isolated. It is suddenly in an alliance of sorts with both Russia and China, two members of the United Nations Security Council that, in a past era, supported the United States in trying to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Now, that deal is dead, ended by former President Donald Trump five years ago, and suddenly Iran has two superpowers not only as allies but as sanctions-busting customers. 6park.com这反映了力量格局的急剧转变：自俄罗斯2022年2月入侵乌克兰以来，伊朗发现自身处境已不再孤立。伊朗突然与俄罗斯和中国结成了某种联盟，后两者作为联合国安理会成员过去都曾支持美国限制伊朗核计划的努力。现如今，前总统特朗普已于五年前终止了伊朗核协议，而中俄两个超级大国一下子不仅成了伊朗的盟友，还无视制裁成为它的主顾。 6park.com“I see Iran as well positioned, and it has checkmated the U.S. and its interests in the Mideast,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “Iran is active on all the borders, resistant to any sort of change from within, while enriching uranium at very alarming levels.” 6park.com“我认为伊朗处于有利地位，美国及其在中东的利益已被它将了一军，”查塔姆研究所中东及北非项目主任萨南·瓦基尔表示。“伊朗在一切问题上都非常活跃，不受任何内部变革的影响，同时还在以非常惊人的速度进行铀浓缩活动。” 6park.comA Quiet Deal That Ended Badly 6park.com一场不欢而散的私下交易 6park.com
2015年，国务卿约翰·克里（右）在日内瓦与伊朗外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫（左）举行核问题协商。 POOL PHOTO BY SUSAN WALSH 6park.comBiden entered office intent on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which contained Iran’s nuclear program for three years until Trump withdrew from it in 2018. After more than a year of negotiations, an accord was all but reached in the summer of 2022 to restore most of the agreement. It would have required Iran to ship its newly produced nuclear fuel out of the country, just as it had in 2015. 6park.com上任之初，拜登就打算恢复2015年的伊朗核协议，在2018年特朗普退出之前的三年里，该协议有效遏制了伊朗的核计划。经过一年多的谈判，双方终于在2022年夏季达成了一致，恢复了之前协议的大部分内容。该协议要求伊朗将其新生产的核燃料运出伊朗，就像2015年那样。 6park.comBut the effort collapsed. 6park.com但这一努力最后却失败了。 6park.comFor the next year, Iran accelerated its nuclear program, for the first time enriching uranium to 60% purity, just shy of the 90% needed to produce weapons. It was a calculated move intended to show the United States that Iran was just a few steps from a bomb — but short of going over the line, to forestall an attack on its nuclear facilities. 6park.com在接下来的一年里，伊朗加快了核计划，首次将铀浓缩到60%的纯度，离生产核武器所需的90%不远。这是一个经过深思熟虑的举动，旨在向美国表明，伊朗距离核弹只有几步之遥——但还没有越界，以防止其核设施遭到攻击。 6park.comLast summer, however, Brett McGurk, Biden’s Middle East coordinator, quietly pieced together two separate deals. One got the five American prisoners released in return for several imprisoned Iranians and the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian assets from South Korea to an account in Qatar for humanitarian purposes. 6park.com然而，去年夏天，拜登的中东事务协调员布雷特·麦格克悄悄达成了另外两项互不相干的协议。其中一个是释放五名美国囚犯，以换取几名被监禁的伊朗人，以及出于人道主义目的将伊朗在韩国的60亿美元资产转移到卡塔尔的一个账户。 6park.com
11月，白宫的中东事务协调员布雷特·麦格克在巴林麦纳麦。 MAZEN MAHDI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES 6park.comBut the second deal — one that Biden did not want revealed — was an unwritten agreement that Iran would restrict its nuclear enrichment and keep a lid on the proxy forces. Only then, the Iranians were told, could there be talks on a broader deal. 6park.com但第二个交易——拜登不想外界知道该交易的存在——没有书面协议，内容是伊朗将限制其核浓缩活动，并控制代理人武装。伊朗方面被告知，只有这样才能就更广泛的协议进行谈判。 6park.comFor a few months, it appeared to be working. Iranian proxies in Iraq or Syria did not attack U.S. forces, ships ran freely in the Red Sea and inspectors reported that enrichment had been drastically slowed. 6park.com在几个月的时间里，它似乎起到了作用。伊朗在伊拉克或叙利亚的代理人没有袭击美国军队，船只在红海自由航行，核查人员报告，伊朗浓缩铀的速度大幅放缓。 6park.comSome analysts say it was a temporary, and deceiving, quiet. Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution and an Iran expert, called it “a Hail Mary they hoped would preserve some calm in the region through the election.” 6park.com一些分析人士说，这只是具有欺骗性的暂时平静。布鲁金斯学会外交政策项目主任、伊朗问题专家苏珊娜·马洛尼称之为“他们希望在选举期间保持该地区平静的孤注一掷之举”。 6park.comAttacks From All Sides 6park.com来自四面八方的攻击 6park.comU.S. intelligence officials say Iran did not instigate or approve the Hamas attack in Israel and probably was not even told about it. Hamas may have feared that word of the attack would leak from Iran, given how deeply Israeli and Western intelligence have penetrated the country. 6park.com美国情报官员称，伊朗没有煽动或批准哈马斯对以色列的袭击，甚至可能事前都不知道此事。鉴于以色列和西方情报部门对伊朗的渗透程度，哈马斯可能担心袭击消息会从伊朗泄露出去。 6park.comBut as soon as the war against Hamas began, Iran’s proxy forces went on the attack. There were, however, significant indications that Iran, facing its own domestic problems, wanted to limit the conflict. Early on, Israel’s war Cabinet discussed a preemptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon, telling the United States that an attack on Israel was imminent and part of an Iranian plan to go after Israel from all sides. 6park.com但针对哈马斯的战争一开始，伊朗的代理部队就立即发动了攻击。不过，有重要迹象表明，伊朗面临自身的国内问题，希望冲突限制在一定范围。早些时候，以色列战争内阁讨论了对黎巴嫩真主党发动先制打击，并告诉美国，对以色列的攻击迫在眉睫，而且这也是伊朗从四面八方打击以色列计划的一部分。 6park.comBiden’s aides pushed back, arguing that Israel’s assessment was wrong, and deterred the Israeli strike. They believe they prevented — or at least delayed — a broader war. 6park.com拜登的手下反驳说，以色列的评估是错误的，并出手阻止了以色列的袭击。他们相信自己阻止了——或至少推迟了一场更大范围的战争。 6park.com
上周黎巴嫩贝鲁特郊区代希耶发生爆炸后的情景。 MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS 6park.comYet, in recent days, the threat of a war with Hezbollah has resurfaced. The group fired scores of rockets at an Israeli military post Friday and Saturday in what it called a “preliminary response” to the killing last week of a senior Hamas leader, Saleh Arouri, in Lebanon. 6park.com然而，最近几天，以色列与真主党开战的威胁再次加大。该组织周五和周六向以色列的一个军事哨所发射了数十枚火箭弹，声称这是针对哈马斯高级领导人萨利赫·阿鲁里上个礼拜在黎巴嫩遇害的“初步反应”。 6park.comSome in the Israeli government, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, have warned that complacency about Hamas’ intentions should not be replicated with Hezbollah, which is thought to have as many as 150,000 missiles aimed at Israel and has trained some of its troops, the Radwan Force, for a cross-border invasion. 6park.com包括国防部长约亚夫·加兰特在内的一些以色列政府官员警告，对哈马斯掉以轻心的情况不要在真主党身上重演，据信真主党拥有多达15万枚瞄准以色列的导弹，并就越境入侵对其部分军队——拉德万部队——进行了针对性训练。 6park.comCrisis in the Red Sea 6park.com红海危机 6park.comThe piece of the conflict with the most immediate global impact has been centered on the Red Sea, where Houthi forces in Yemen, using Iranian intelligence and weapons, are targeting what they call “Israeli ships.” In fact, they appear to be targeting all ships with heat-seeking missiles that cannot discriminate between targets and fast boats used to board and take over tankers. 6park.com这场对全球影响最直接的冲突集中在红海，也门的胡塞武装利用伊朗的情报和武器，瞄准了其所谓的“以色列船只”。事实上，他们似乎用无法区分目标的热追踪导弹瞄准所有船只，这些导弹无法区分袭击目标和用于登上、接管油轮的快艇。 6park.comWhen the U.S. Navy came to rescue a Maersk cargo ship under attack a little more than a week ago, the Houthis opened fire on Navy helicopters. The Navy pilots returned fire and sank three of the four Houthi boats, killing 10, the Houthis reported. 6park.com一个多星期前，当美国海军前来营救一艘遭到袭击的马士基货船时，胡塞武装向海军直升机开火。据胡塞武装方面称，美国海军飞行员进行了还击，击沉了四艘胡塞武装船只中的三艘，导致10人死亡。 6park.comMaersk, one of the world’s largest shippers, has suspended all transits through the Red Sea “for the foreseeable future,” meaning that it is routing around the fastest path between Europe and Asia — the Suez Canal. Companies around the world, from Ikea to BP, are already warning of supply-chain delays. 6park.com作为世界上最大的船运商之一的马士基已经“在可预见的未来”暂停了所有船只通过红海，这意味着它正在避开欧亚之间最快的路线——苏伊士运河。从宜家到英国石油公司，世界各地的公司都对供应链延迟发出了警告。 6park.com
周四，美国无人机袭击巴格达后，人们抬着一名“高贵者运动”成员的棺木，这是一个与伊朗有联系的激进组织。 AHMED SAAD/REUTERS 6park.comBiden faces hard choices. He pulled back from the Middle East to focus on competing with and deterring China. Now, he is being sucked back in. 6park.com拜登目前面临着艰难的抉择。他从中东撤出，专注于跟中国竞争并遏制中国。现在却又要被拉回去。 6park.com“The U.S. has built up a matrix of deterrence, signaling that it is not interested in a regional war but is prepared to intervene in response to Iran’s provocation,” said Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert for the European Council on Foreign Relations. But the presence of U.S. carriers and troops makes Washington more exposed, he said. “So this matrix of deterrence could be a driver of escalation.” 6park.com欧洲对外关系委员会的中东问题专家休·洛瓦特说，“美国已经建立了一个威慑体系，表明它对地区战争不感兴趣，但准备对伊朗的挑衅进行干预。”但他表示，美国航空母舰和军队的存在让华盛顿面临更多的风险。“因此，这个威慑体系可能反而推动局势升级。” 6park.com 6park.comDavid E. Sanger报道拜登政府和国家安全。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 6park.com
Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他此前曾在布鲁塞尔、伦敦、巴黎、耶路撒冷、柏林、布拉格、贝尔格莱格、华盛顿、莫斯科和曼谷等地进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。
翻译：Harry Wong、杜然
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