| 送交者: Haisen2023[♂★★學翥吉奥★★♂] 于 2024-01-16 15:17 已读 1126 次 | Haisen2023的个人频道 |
大选结束了，台湾的未来仍没有定数Taiwan’s Tightrope Has Become a Knife Edge 6park.com《纽约时报》SYARU SHIRLEY LIN2024年1月15日 6park.comAN RONG XU FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
6park.comMy home, Taiwan, is a shining example of freedom, democracy and inclusivity. We have one of the world’s most open societies, the highest percentage of female legislators in Asia and a government minister who is transgender. Decades of hard work, smart policies and entrepreneurial mindsets have led to enviably high standards of living and made us the global heart of the semiconductor industry. 6park.com我的家乡台湾是自由、民主和包容的光辉典范。我们拥有世界上最开放的社会之一、全亚洲最高的女性议员比例，以及一位跨性别政府部长。几代人的辛勤劳动、明智的政策和创业精神为我们带来了令人艳羡的高生活水平，也使我们成为了半导体行业的全球中心。 6park.comWhen Taiwan votes in elections on Saturday, I will go to the polls with a real feeling of worry about our future and whether we can preserve and maintain what we’ve achieved. 6park.com当台湾大选于周六举行，我是带着一种真正的担忧去投票站的，这种担忧关乎我们的未来，以及我们能否保住和维持所取得的成就。 6park.comTaiwan’s accomplishments were made possible in part by decades of stability between China and the United States. But that is rapidly fading away as the two global rivals descend into distrust and competition. Steps being taken by both sides in that deteriorating relationship are threatening Taiwan’s resilience, its ability to innovate and, importantly, the ability of our people to stay united amid this challenge. The real loser in the U.S.-China competition may end up being Taiwan. 6park.com台湾的发展成果在一定程度上得益于中美两国数十年来的稳定关系。但随着这两个全球对手陷入不信任和竞争的局面，这种稳定正在迅速消失。两国在不断恶化的关系中采取的措施正在威胁台湾的韧性、创新能力，更重要的还有我们的人民在这一挑战中保持团结的能力。中美竞争的最终输家可能会是台湾。 6park.comIt is becoming increasingly difficult for us to navigate between the two countries. On one side there is China, just 81 miles away from Taiwan at the closest point and an existential threat to us. China and Taiwan have been politically separated since the Chinese Civil War ended with a Communist victory in 1949 that sent the Kuomintang government, which once ruled all of China, fleeing to Taiwan. 6park.com台湾在美中间周旋的难度越来越大。一边是中国，它与台湾的最小距离仅130公里，对我们构成了存亡威胁。自1949年国共内战结束、共产党的胜利迫使曾经统治全中国的国民党政府逃往台湾以来，中国和台湾在政治上就处于分离状态。 6park.comLike millions of Taiwanese, I grew up under the threat of a Chinese military invasion. In weekly drills during my school years, we practiced seeking shelter under our little wooden desks in case of an attack. That danger has only intensified as China’s military power has grown and President Xi Jinping, intent on unifying Taiwan with the mainland, has steered Beijing away from trying to win Taiwanese hearts and minds toward economic coercion and military threats. 6park.com与无数台湾人一样，我是在中国军事入侵的威胁下长大的。在念书时每周都要参加的演习中，我们会练习如何在袭击发生时躲到小木桌底下避难。随着中国军事力量的增长和习近平主席一心想实现台湾和大陆的统一，北京已从试图赢得台湾民心转向了经济胁迫和军事威吓，这只会进一步加剧危机。 6park.comAnd yet we prospered, in large part, ironically, because of our close economic ties with China. After China began opening up its economy in the late 1970s, Taiwanese manufacturers rushed in to take advantage of the lower labor costs. China is both a threat to Taiwan and its most important trading partner. 6park.com但讽刺之处在于，我们的繁荣在很大程度上来自于我们与中国密切的经济联系。上世纪70年代中国开始开放经济，此后台商纷纷涌入大陆，利用当地廉价的劳动力成本。中国既是台湾的威胁，也是台湾最重要的贸易伙伴。 6park.comOn the other side is America. Despite having switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, the United States remains an important economic partner and supplier of military arms to Taiwan. President Biden has repeatedly pledged that the United States would help defend Taiwan if China were to attack. But there are doubts in Taiwan about the U.S. commitment. 6park.com另一边则是美国。虽然在1979年改变了对台湾的外交承认转而与中国建交，但美国仍是台湾重要的经济伙伴和军火供应方。拜登总统曾多次承诺，如果中国袭击台湾，美国将帮助保卫台湾。但台湾民众对美国的承诺存有疑虑。 6park.comThe U.S.-China competition for critical supplies of strategic technologies, particularly semiconductors, also has left Taiwan in the crossfire. The United States has banned the sale of certain high-tech products to China, which also affects some that are made in Taiwan, and has pressured Taiwanese chip manufacturers to invest in costly plant construction on U.S. soil to keep their products out of China’s reach. These policies may help America, but they reduce the competitiveness of one of Taiwan’s most important industries and its economy as a whole. 6park.com中美在关键战略技术——尤其是半导体——供应上的竞争也把台湾夹在了两难之中。美国对中国禁售某些高科技产品，台湾制造的部分产品受到影响，为了防止其产品进入中国，台湾芯片制造商还被迫到美国境内耗巨资建厂。这些政策或许对美国有所助益，但却损害了台湾最重要的产业之一及其整体经济的竞争力。 6park.comTaiwan, in essence, is stuck between two unreliable partners. 6park.com台湾实际上是困在了两个不可靠的伙伴之间。 6park.comPresident Tsai Ing-wen won two terms in part for standing up for Taiwanese autonomy in the face of growing threats from China. But many voters now feel that she has aligned Taiwan too closely with the United States, at the risk of provoking China and putting Taiwan in the firing line. Competing to replace Ms. Tsai are her incumbent vice president, Lai Ching-te, also of her Democratic Progressive Party, or D.P.P., and Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang. Mr. Lai had a slight lead in the most recent surveys. 6park.com蔡英文总统之所以能赢得两届任期，部分原因就是她在中国日益严峻的威胁面前坚持台湾独立自主。但许多选民如今认为，她让台湾和美国走得太近，有激怒中国并让台湾承担罪责的风险。在大选中竞争取代蔡英文的人选包括她的现任副总统、与她同属民进党的赖清德，以及反对派国民党的侯友宜。赖清德在大选前的民调中略微领先。 6park.comThe two parties have been arguing over how to deal with China for decades. The D.P.P. views Taiwan as effectively an independent country and brands itself as the party most committed to protecting the island’s sovereignty against Chinese coercion. The Kuomintang argues that positive relations with Beijing are the way to ensure our peace and prosperity. But growing fatigue with the two parties, especially among younger voters, and worsening division over Taiwan’s future have allowed the Taiwan People’s Party candidate, Ko Wen-je, to pose a serious third-party challenge with calls for change. 6park.com几十年来，两党在台海关系问题上始终争论不休。民进党认为台湾是实际上的独立国家，自诩为最致力于保护台湾主权不受中国胁迫的政党。国民党认为，搞好与中国的关系才能确保台湾的和平与繁荣。但民众——尤其是年轻选民——对两党日益厌倦，加之在台湾未来问题上愈发严重的分歧，让呼吁变革的台湾民众党候选人柯文哲成为了声势浩大的第三方势力。 6park.comDespite the concerns of potential conflict between the United States and China, this election, which also includes Taiwan’s legislature, may hinge on how to address the kinds of serious domestic problems that afflict many high-income countries and for which the D.P.P. is blamed for failing to effectively address in the past eight years. Voters are worried about soaring housing prices, lagging wage growth, our energy future and the need for policies to help deal with challenges like a rapidly aging population and slowing population growth. Solving problems like these will require consensus, but that may prove difficult to achieve as the latest trends indicate that no party will command a decisive mandate. 6park.com尽管存在中美可能爆发冲突的担忧，但本届大选（包括台湾立法院选举）的结果，可能取决于如何解决困扰许多高收入国家的严重内部问题，民进党在过去八年执政期间因为未能妥善处理这些问题而受到了批评。选民们担忧的是房价飙升、薪水增长滞后、台湾能源未来，以及如何制定政策帮助应对人口的迅速老龄化和人口增长缓慢等挑战。解决这些问题的前提是共识，但共识可能很难达成，因为近来的趋势表明，没有哪个政党能获得决定性的权威。 6park.comAll of these problems mean that Taiwan can ill afford becoming further weakened by the contest between China and the United States. 6park.com所有这些问题都意味着台湾承受不起中美竞争所导致的进一步损害。 6park.comTaiwan’s next president will need to be able to work with both Beijing and Washington, diversify our economy and build stronger international trade links, all while maintaining stability in our vital economic relations with China. But it’s far from certain whether the individuals we will choose will be able to successfully navigate our complex position. Taiwan’s long diplomatic isolation has left it without a deep bench of political leaders experienced in international issues. The presidential hopefuls are all current or former city mayors, with little foreign policy expertise. 6park.com台湾的新总统需要懂得如何与中美合作，实现经济多样化，建立更牢固的国际贸易联系，同时维持台湾与中国重大经济关联的稳定。但我们选出的总统能否成功驾驭这种复杂局势还远没有定数。长久的外交孤立导致台湾缺乏在国际问题上经验丰富的政治领导人。总统候选人全是现任或前任市长，他们缺乏外交政策方面的专长。 6park.comExternal threats can unite a country or weaken it. In Taiwan, there already are deep divisions, not only over how to deal with China and the United States, but also over domestic problems. These are being exacerbated by rampant social media disinformation believed to originate from China and intended to undermine public confidence in our democratic institutions. Taiwan is fracturing at a time when unity is most needed. 6park.com外部威胁能团结一个国家，也能削弱一个国家。台湾内部的分歧已经十分严重，这不仅涉及如何处理跟中国和美国的关系，也关乎岛内问题。而社交媒体上的虚假信息猖獗放大了分歧，这些信息被认为来自中国，意在削弱民众对台湾民主制度的信心。台湾就这样在最需要团结的时候分裂了。 6park.comThis Saturday, and going forward, whether or not Taiwan’s people can come together and face these issues effectively may decide whether its admirable achievements persist or fade away. 6park.com在周六的大选和未来，台湾人民能否团结起来，真正面对这些问题，可能将决定台湾令人钦佩的成就究竟是得以维系还是会逐渐消失。 6park.com 6park.comSyaru Shirley Lin(@syaru)是台北亚太坚韧研究基金会的创始人兼主席，也是《台湾的中国困境》一书的作者。
翻译：Harry Wong
点击查看本文英文版。
6park.com相关报道
赖清德赢得台湾总统大选
2024年1月14日 6park.com
台湾新总统赖清德其人
2024年1月15日 6park.com
赖清德胜选后，北京会如何应对
2024年1月14日 6park.com
聚焦台湾大选：民进党力拼继续执政
2024年1月13日 6park.com
6park.com
请点这里投票，“赞”助支持！